THE OPTION PREMIUM

Weekly Options Intelligence | April 12, 2026

If this is your first issue, welcome. I'm Andy Crowder. Twenty-four years of professional options trading, and the thing I keep coming back to is this: most people never get a straight answer about how any of it actually works. That's what The Option Premium is here to fix. The newsletter is free and will stay that way. The paid services exist for those who want to go further and do more. What I publish here is written to be honest, clear, and useful, nothing more. Read what interests you. Send me your questions. Hit reply and write me directly. I read everything and I respond to everything. And to the readers who have been here week after week and keep sharing this with people they know, thank you. You are the reason this community keeps growing, and I mean that sincerely.

📰 What the Data Said This Week

Less than two hours before his own deadline to destroy "a whole civilization," Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Pakistan brokered the deal. The war that dominated six weeks of trading paused.

Wednesday was the response. The Dow surged 1,325 points, its best day in a year. The S&P 500 jumped 2.51% to 6,782.81. The Nasdaq rallied 2.80%. Oil collapsed 16.4% in a single session, WTI settling at $94.41, the biggest one-day decline since April 2020. The VIX plunged 22% and settled back near its pre-war level. Globally, South Korea's Kospi surged 6.87%. Japan's Nikkei gained 5.39%. Germany's DAX jumped 5.06%. The relief was universal.

Thursday extended it. The S&P 500 added another 0.62% to close at 6,824.66. The Dow rose to 48,185.80 and turned positive for the year for the first time since the war began. Israel agreed to open negotiations with Lebanon. PCE came in at 3.0%, matching expectations. Oil bounced back toward $98 as the market realized Iran was still controlling access to the Strait.

Friday gave back some of it. The S&P 500 slipped 0.11% to 6,816.89. The Dow fell 269 points. March CPI came in hot at 3.3%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low. Trump accused Iran of "doing a very poor job" reopening the Strait. Only a handful of ships have transited the waterway since the deal. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged new strikes overnight, threatening to derail the truce. VP Vance departed for Islamabad, where peace talks begin today.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.6%. The Nasdaq rose 4.7%. The Dow added 3.0%. Best week since November for all three indexes. Two consecutive winning weeks, the first back-to-back gains since early February.

The VIX dropped from 23.87 to 19.23. That's a 19% decline on top of last week's 23% drop. In two weeks, the VIX has gone from 31 to 19, essentially returning to pre-war levels. Breadth didn't just recover. It crossed the line. $MMFI surged from 35.10 to 50.14, crossing above 50 for the first time since the selloff began. $MMTH rose from 47.77 to 52.60. Both breadth measures are now above 50, with +DI decisively above -DI on both. The bearish breadth trend that dominated March has officially reversed.

For premium sellers, this is a new landscape. The sell zone contracted further: only three ETFs remain above 50% IVR (SMH 53.92%, EEM 51.66%, USO 50.51%), down from six last week and thirteen two weeks ago. But 14 ETFs still pass the dual filter (IVR above 35%, IVP above 50%). The premiums are normalizing, not disappearing.

But here's the tension. The ceasefire is two weeks. It is not a peace deal. Iran's 10-point proposal includes U.S. troop withdrawal, sanctions lifted, and continued Iranian control of the Strait. Washington's demands are fundamentally different. The Islamabad talks start today with VP Vance leading the U.S. delegation. If they produce a framework, the rally extends. If they stall, the market reprices everything it priced in this week.

This week, Implied Perspective members hold four active positions: a VIX hedge (long call), an NVDA bull put spread, an SPY iron condor, and an IWM bear call spread. Management alerts went out as volatility compressed. Every entry and exit shared in real time and archived.

👉 [See what members are trading this week at theoptionpremium.com →]

📅 The Week Ahead

Two forces will drive the week. First, the Islamabad talks. If Vance and Iran produce a framework for extending the ceasefire or opening permanent negotiations, oil drops further and the rally has room to run. If talks collapse, the two-week clock starts ticking toward expiration and markets will price in resumption of hostilities. Second, bank earnings. JPM, WFC, MS, Goldman, and Bank of America all report. These are the first real earnings of Q1 and will reveal how six weeks of war, elevated oil, and geopolitical uncertainty have affected lending, trading, and forward guidance. March CPI at 3.3% (up from 2.8%) and record-low consumer sentiment are the inflation backdrop the banks will address.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles

🗓️ Tuesday: The JPM Collar: What It Is, How It Works, and Why Every Options Trader Should Understand It

🗓️ Thursday: Apple PMCC Trade Setup: Building the Position Today

Want more? Check out the updated article, How our AAPL PMCC made 92% in 2025.

Also updated this week, Income Math with LEAPS - Basis Reduction, Yield on Capital, and Realistic Expectations

🗓️ The Research Desk: The Capital Efficiency Hybrid

📈 How LEAPS, Cash-Secured Puts, and Covered Calls Make Every Dollar Work

Most investors have a portfolio where half their capital is doing nothing. You own 100 shares of a stock at $180. That's $18,000 locked into one position producing one income stream. What if you could control that same exposure for $5,500 and put the remaining $12,500 to work generating premium elsewhere? That's what LEAPS make possible. This guide walks through the complete hybrid framework: deep ITM LEAPS to control stock exposure at 25-35% of the cost, cash-secured puts funded by the freed capital across 4-6 additional underlyings, and covered calls on any shares acquired through assignment. A $50,000 account running this hybrid produces 10+ simultaneous income streams where a traditional portfolio produces three. The trade-offs are real (time decay, downside leverage, no dividends) and fully disclosed.

👉 Read the full guide: The Capital Efficiency Hybrid

🎓 Options 101: Calls and Puts: The Only Two Things You Need to Know First

The entire universe of options contains exactly two instruments. A call and a put. Every strategy you'll encounter in this series, the covered call, the cash-secured put, the iron condor, the LEAPS position, is built from one or both.

A call gives the buyer the right to purchase shares at a specific price before a specific date. A put gives the buyer the right to sell shares at a specific price before a specific date. The buyer pays the premium. The seller collects it. Four possible positions: buy a call (bullish), sell a call (neutral to bearish), buy a put (bearish), sell a put (neutral to bullish). That's it. Every strategy in existence is a combination of one or more of those four positions.

Once you see that structure clearly, every strategy you encounter becomes recognizable rather than overwhelming. Spend time with this one. It's the foundation everything else rests on.

Income Foundation members start here. Cash-secured puts, the simplest selling strategy, are where every new premium seller should begin.

👉 Read the full article: Calls and Puts: The Only Two Things You Need to Know First

👉 [See the framework in action at theoptionpremium.com →]

🧠 Mental Capital: How to Build an Options Portfolio That Can Take a Hit

Six weeks of war. A 16% single-day oil crash. A VIX that went from 31 to 19 in two weeks. If your portfolio couldn't handle the ride from late February through this week without forcing a panic decision, the problem isn't the market. It's the portfolio construction.

This article covers the five structural pillars that determine whether a portfolio survives a bad week: position sizing at 2-5% per trade (so a max loss is a bruise, not a broken bone), uncorrelated positions across 8-12 underlyings (five tech spreads is one bet, not five), a permanent 20-30% cash reserve (for assignments, VIX-spike opportunities, and psychological stability), strategy diversification across credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts, and covered calls, and a written drawdown plan with pre-committed actions at -5%, -10%, -15%, and -20%. The math of recovery is unforgiving: a 30% drawdown requires a 43% gain just to break even. Everything in this framework exists to keep drawdowns in the 10-20% range where recovery is measured in months, not years.

👉 Read the full article: How to Build an Options Portfolio That Can Take a Hit

Educational Corner: Probability of Touch vs. Probability of Expiring ITM

Your platform shows an 85% probability of profit. You sell the spread. Three days later the stock drops 2.8% and your short strike is being tested. How is that possible?

Because the number on your screen measures where the stock will be at expiration. It says nothing about what happens between now and then. The probability of touch, the chance the stock reaches your strike at any point during the trade, is roughly twice the probability of expiring ITM. A 0.15 delta spread with 85% Prob OTM has approximately a 30% chance of being touched. Over 10 trades, expect 3 to be tested, even though 8-9 ultimately expire profitably. Roughly half of all touches recover.

This is the metric that should govern your management plan and your emotional expectations. It's why the 50% profit target is so powerful: when you close early, you eliminate the remaining days of accumulated touch probability entirely. And it's why iron condors at 0.15 delta on both sides have approximately a 50% chance of at least one side being tested. That's mathematically normal. The question isn't whether you'll be tested. It's whether your management plan is ready for it.

Implied Perspective members see these probabilities applied in real time. 19 trades since October. 89.5% win rate. 26 days average hold time. Every trade archived.

👉 Read the full article: Probability of Touch vs. Probability of Expiring ITM

👉 [See the framework in action with real trades at theoptionpremium.com →]

📊 The Implied Truth

The Weekly ETF Volatility and Trend Intelligence Report

New here? Read the complete guide on how to read these tables: How to Read the Implied Truth Tables

Where the Probabilities Favor Selling (IVR > 35% and IVP > 50%)

The sell zone contracted again. Only three ETFs remain above 50% IVR: SMH at 53.92%, EEM at 51.66%, and USO at 50.51%. Two weeks ago there were thirteen. The ceasefire compressed volatility across the board. But 14 ETFs still pass the dual filter (IVR above 35% and IVP above 50%). The opportunity set is thinner, but it's there.

SMH emerged as the new leader at 53.92% IVR, 81% IVP. Semiconductors surged on the ceasefire as the helium supply chain (critical for chip manufacturing) stands to normalize. RS jumped to 67.71, the strongest relative strength reading of any ETF this week. ADX at 23.03 (developing). +DI at 36.78 vs -DI at 23.33. The trend is bullish and the premiums are rich. Bull put spreads work here.

EEM at 51.66% IVR, 87% IVP. Emerging markets rallied hard on the ceasefire as energy-import-dependent economies repriced. RS flipped to Above 50 with +DI at 36.51 vs -DI at 29.02. ADX at 16.54 (weak but improving). Bull put spreads favor the bullish lean.

USO at 50.51% IVR, 90% IVP. Oil is still elevated at $98, well above pre-war levels, but the trend has reversed. RS dropped to Above 50 (was New Above 70 two weeks ago). +DI at 32.24 vs -DI at 23.60. The bullish energy trend weakened but hasn't fully broken. Bear call spreads work here as oil normalizes.

The remaining ETFs passing the dual filter (GDX 69.17%, URA 68.99%, GLD 47.08%, XLE 46.30%, XLI 46.35%, XHB 45.49%, RSP 44.18%, EFA 42.73%, XLV 40.68%, SLV 39.02%, XLK 36.30%), their directional readings, and the specific framework for each are in this week's Implied Perspective.

👉 [Get the full ETF and 100+ equity breakdown at theoptionpremium.com →]

Respect the Trend

The leadership rotation accelerated this week. The story isn't just "energy faded." It's "everything else woke up."

SMH is the new leader. RS at 67.71, the highest of any ETF this week. +DI at 36.78 vs -DI at 23.33. The semiconductor rally is being driven by ceasefire-related supply chain normalization (helium, LNG, chip inputs) and renewed AI spending expectations. ADX at 23.03 is approaching the 25 threshold for confirmed trend.

XLE reversed. For the first time since the war began, XLE's -DI (36.62) is above +DI (23.89). RS dropped to Below 50. ADX at 31.98 is still strong, but the direction flipped. Energy went from the strongest sector to a bearish trend in one week. This is a direct result of the ceasefire and the 16% oil crash on Wednesday.

SPY flipped bullish. RS surged to Above 50. +DI at 29.10 vs -DI at 30.47. These are nearly equal, and +DI is rising while -DI is falling. ADX at 30.33 is strong. The six-week downtrend has effectively neutralized and is one session away from a bullish crossover. This is the setup we've been watching for.

$MMFI crossed 50. This is the breadth confirmation signal. +DI at 37.97 vs -DI at 22.31. ADX at 31.97. The breadth trend has officially reversed from bearish to bullish. $MMTH followed at 52.60 with +DI at 32.29 vs -DI at 26.19. The market isn't just recovering. Participation is broadening.

The Indexes: Still Below the Sell Threshold

SPY IVR dropped further to 24.44%. DIA at 29.69%. QQQ at 26.27%. All remain below 35% IVR. Index credits are still not compelling at current volatility levels.

IVP is normalizing too: SPY at 68% (was 84%), DIA at 76% (was 88%), QQQ at 66% (was 79%). The persistent elevation is fading. If the Islamabad talks produce a framework and the ceasefire extends, IV will continue compressing and the index sell zone won't reopen until the next catalyst.

Breadth Crossed 50: The Reversal Is Confirmed

$MMFI surged from 35.10 to 50.14. $MMTH rose from 47.77 to 52.60. Both crossed above 50 this week for the first time since the selloff began in late February.

This is not tentative. +DI on $MMFI is at 37.97 vs -DI at 22.31. That's a 16-point gap in favor of bullish breadth. ADX at 31.97 confirms the new trend has real strength. The majority of stocks are now trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Market participation is broadening, not narrowing.

The full Notable Moves section, this week's complete framework, and the 100+ equity volatility breakdown are available in The Implied Perspective.

👉 [Read this week's Implied Perspective at theoptionpremium.com →]

The Bottom Line

The ceasefire changed the landscape. VIX at 19. Breadth above 50. The Dow positive for the year. Six weeks of war-driven fear compressed into two weeks of relief.

But this is a two-week truce, not a peace deal. Iran's 10-point proposal and Washington's demands are far apart. Vance is in Islamabad today. If the talks produce a framework, volatility stays compressed and the rally has room. If they don't, the clock is ticking and the market will price in resumption of hostilities well before the two weeks are up.

For premium sellers: only three ETFs above 50% IVR. The richest premiums have shifted from broad panic (13 ETFs two weeks ago) to specific pockets (SMH, EEM, commodities). When IV compresses, be selective. When it expands again, be ready. This week is very selective.

Bank earnings start today. March CPI at 3.3% and record-low consumer sentiment are the inflation backdrop. The ceasefire paused the geopolitical risk. It didn't pause the economic risk. Both need monitoring.

🎓 Coming Soon: PMCC Mastery

The complete implementation system: LEAPS selection, short call management, roll decisions, and every step from first position to sustained income. Followed by Credit Spreads and Wheel Strategy courses.

Reply "PMCC" to [email protected] for early access. Annual all-access members ($1,495/year) receive every course at no extra cost.

A Quick Note

A quick note this week, and a genuine one.

The best communities are built slowly, on trust, and without shortcuts. That's what I'm trying to do here, and I don't take lightly the fact that you've chosen to spend part of your Sunday with me.

This newsletter is free and will stay that way. The paid services are there when you're ready to go further. What I really want to say is thank you. Not the reflexive kind, but the kind that comes from actually feeling it. You've been patient while I've been building, and what's being built is something I'm genuinely proud of.

And the best is still ahead. Video, webinars, courses, book, etc. The full educational framework that I've been working toward is coming together, and the version of The Option Premium that exists twelve months from now is going to be something well beyond what you’re seeing today.

Which brings me to one ask: keep talking about it. If something you read here has helped you think more clearly about risk, probability, or how premium selling actually works, tell someone. A friend, a trading or Facebook group, a forum, reddit, a Discord server. The Option Premium has never run an ad. It grows because readers like you pass it along, and that word of mouth is the foundation everything else is built on.

The trust you've placed in this work means more than I can put into words. Stick around. It's only going to get better. Thank you!

See you next Sunday.

🔗 Let's Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I'd love to hear from you. 📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

📺 Subscribe on YouTube so you'll be notified when the first videos are released.

👥 Join the private Facebook group or connect with me on X. Send me your topic requests, whether for the newsletter, YouTube, or webinars. Seriously, send them. 🙂

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today's insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.

Andy Crowder Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist | The Option Premium

The Option Premium is published for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.