THE OPTION PREMIUM

Weekly Options Intelligence | March 22, 2026

📰 What the Data Said This Week

NVIDIA gave the market a reason to rally on Monday. Then the Fed and Iraq took it away by Friday.

Jensen Huang opened GTC with a $1 trillion chip demand forecast through 2027, unveiled the Vera Rubin architecture, and announced orbital data center partnerships. The S&P 500 jumped 1% on Monday. The Dow gained 381 points. For about 48 hours, the AI narrative was alive again.

Then the FOMC delivered its verdict on Wednesday. The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but the dot plot told the real story. The median still shows one cut this year, but four or five members shifted from two cuts to one. Seven members now see no cuts at all in 2026. Powell acknowledged "meaningful movement toward fewer cuts" and raised the inflation projection from 2.4% to 2.7%. GDP was revised slightly higher to 2.4%. Translation: the Fed sees growth holding but inflation getting stickier. Higher for longer is not a forecast. It's the plan.

Then Friday happened. Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields, citing the inability to ship crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Drones struck two refineries in Kuwait. WTI surged past $98 per barrel. Brent crude topped $112, its highest since 2022. The S&P 500 dropped 1.51% to close at 6,506.48, levels not seen since early September. The Nasdaq fell 2.01%. The Dow shed 444 points. The Russell 2000 declined 2.26% and officially entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its high.

For the week, every major index posted losses. The S&P 500 fell roughly 2%. The Nasdaq lost about 2.5%. The Dow dropped nearly 3%. The Russell 2000 shed over 3%. Only energy stocks were consistently green. XLE's ADX sits at 47.64 with +DI at 37.90, the strongest institutional uptrend on the board. USO's ADX hit 56.79, the highest reading in the entire watchlist. XOP followed at 40.16.

Breadth collapsed further. $MMFI (percent of stocks below the 50-day moving average) crashed to 22.35. Fewer than 23% of stocks are above their 50-day moving average. Three weeks ago that number was 50.85. $MMTH (percent of stocks below the 200-day moving average) fell to 42.42, with ADX above 46 and -DI above 52. This is a powerful, accelerating decline in market internals. The broad market is in genuine distress.

The VIX closed at 26.78. IV Percentile remains at 91%. Eight ETFs sit above 50% IVR. Eleven have IV Percentile above 93%. GDX surged to 87.33% IVR (up from 73.29% last week) as gold miners got hit while gold itself rallied. SPY's IVR pushed above 40% for the first time this cycle. DIA is at 44.49%. The sell zone is wider and richer than it's been all year.

This week, Implied Perspective members received specific strike and delta guidance on two new positions plus management alerts on three existing trades. The full trade log, real-time alerts, and the 100+ equity volatility breakdown are part of every subscription.

👉 [See what members are trading this week at theoptionpremium.com →]

📅 The Week Ahead

PCE Friday is the week's defining event. It's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and after the hawkish dot plot shift, markets will parse every tenth of a percent. A hot print validates the "higher for longer" stance and could push the one remaining projected cut to December or off the table entirely. A cooler print could trigger a relief rally. Consumer confidence Wednesday matters because consumer spending is 70%+ of GDP, and the Michigan sentiment readings have been deteriorating. Q4 GDP Thursday provides the backward-looking baseline. Either way, premiums should remain elevated.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

The Numbers Don't Lie

Let's talk results. Both sides of our framework.

Credit Spreads (The Implied Perspective)

With March expiration behind us, our members just locked in gains of 22.85%, 12.10%, 15.60%, 12.87%, and 19.05% for our March and some of our April expiration positions. One loss of -20.00%. Since October, the cumulative return now stands at more than 186%, with the potential to add another 12.40% and 11.59% early next week. Every entry shared in real time with Implied Perspective members.

“How are you doing? First off, I just want you to know how insanely valuable I feel this service is. It's truly, almost to good to be true, and the knowledge you share is humbling….anyways, even if I felt I knew what I was doing in 10 years...I hope you do this for as long as you can....I will always be a paying member as I feel this to be way too valuable to let go of and want to support your business and passion for sharing. Thanks Andy!” -Matt

“You explain options in a clear way & you try not to make them complex. That’s why I followed you. There are too many people on the net that teach options, but don’t explain them to ordinary people to make them understandable and comfortable to trade. They make them complicated. Most people I know say, oh you can lose lots of money, they’re dangerous, stay away! You know the story I am sure. They make these statements from hearsay.  You’re not one of them. Keep the good work going Andy!” -Ian

“First, let me say that after years of wandering in the option desert, finding you has been an incredible experience. I have learned more from the few weeks I have received your insights and process than I have for years. Thanks again for all that you provide to those who are trying to learn and be better traders.” - Sandy

“Thank you for writing such detailed and highly educational newsletters and articles. As a newbie, I have learnt so much from your newsletters and articles. Thank you for sharing your knowledge, people like you make this journey for people like me wanting to be an options trader so much easier and better! Much appreciated!” - Raj 

“You have been a great resource for my option trading journey and I really appreciate you sharing the content on your website.” - Ram

Wealth Without Shares (PMCCs)

Wealth Without Shares is built around one idea: you don't need to own 100 shares of a stock to generate consistent income from it. Using LEAPS and short calls across five distinct PMCC portfolios, our members get exposure to quality companies at a fraction of the capital cost of owning shares outright.

Every portfolio is managed transparently. Every LEAPS entry, every short call, every roll decision, and every management alert is shared in real time across all five portfolios. Members don't get a PDF and a "good luck." They get the actual trades, the reasoning behind them, and the adjustments as they happen.

Since launching the first portfolio in May 2025, Wealth Without Shares has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 across every portfolio iteration. Not every position wins. But the basket approach, combined with disciplined management and patience, has compounded in our members' favor across different stocks, different market conditions, and different time periods.

This week, we're adding brand new positions, including the potential launch of our new S&P Wealth Without Shares portfolio.

👉 [See the full trade log and join at theoptionpremium.com →]

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles

🗓️ Tuesday: The Holy Grail of Trading: Low-Risk Ideas

🗓️ Thursday: LEAPS and the Wheel: Blending Long-Term Calls with Short-Term Premium

🗓️ The Research Desk

📈 LEAPS and the Wheel: Blending Long-Term Calls with Short-Term Premium (Updated with new images and visuals)

Combine LEAPS exposure with Wheel-style puts and covered calls to stack long-term growth with short-term income, step by step.

👉 Read the full framework: LEAPS and the Wheel: Blending Long-Term Calls with Short-Term Premium

📈 How to Choose LEAPS Contracts: Strike Selection, Expiration, and Volatility (Updated with new images and visuals)

Master LEAPS selection with systematic framework: 0.75 to 0.85 delta strikes, 18 to 30 month expiration, extrinsic value analysis. Probability-based approach.

👉 Read the full guide: How to Choose LEAPS Contracts: Strike Selection, Expiration, and Volatility

🎓 Options 101: Cash-Secured Puts Explained: Your Complete Guide to Selling Puts for Income

If I could recommend one strategy for a new premium seller to learn first, it would be the cash-secured put. Not because it's the most sophisticated. Because it teaches you everything that matters: collecting premium, managing probability, understanding assignment, and learning to profit from stocks you'd be happy to own.

This week, I published a complete guide covering both sides of the put option, from entry to management to assignment. You'll learn why a cash-secured put is essentially getting paid to place a limit order on a stock you already want to own, the four structural advantages sellers have over outright stock buyers (income while waiting, lower cost basis, probability on your side, time decay working for you), my strike selection framework (0.15-0.25 delta, 30-45 DTE, avoid earnings), the four management rules (close at 50-75% profit, evaluate at 200% of premium, roll only for a net credit, transition to covered calls on assignment), and position sizing for sustainability (max 25% per position, 20% cash reserve, plan for simultaneous assignments).

The Income Foundation members see this framework applied weekly with specific tickers, strikes, and management alerts across a diversified watchlist from dividend aristocrats to high-beta growth names. This past March expiration, members locked in gains of 3.36%, 2.74%, 1.80%, 1.44%, and 1.42%.

👉 Read the full guide: Cash-Secured Puts Explained

👉 [See the framework in action at theoptionpremium.com →]

🧠 Mental Capital: Why I Sell Monthly Options Over Weeklies: Four Data-Driven Reasons

Weeklies are seductive. Faster theta decay. Quicker capital turnover. The dopamine hit of collecting premium every five trading days. I traded them aggressively for years before the data convinced me to stop.

This week, I published the four data-driven reasons I switched. Gamma risk is the silent killer: gamma is roughly 2.6x higher at 5 DTE than at 35 DTE, meaning the same stock move produces 2.6x the delta change on a weekly versus a monthly. OTM theta decay isn't what the textbooks show: the steep hockey-stick curve is for ATM options, not the OTM strikes premium sellers actually use. Distribution curves are dangerously tight: a 1 SD position at 5 DTE is only 2.7% from the current price on SPY, versus 7.1% at 35 DTE. And the treadmill effect is real: my own two-year tracking showed 18-22% higher net P/L per dollar of risk on monthlies versus weeklies.

The practical framework: enter at 35-40 DTE, sell at 0.15-0.20 delta, close at 50% of max profit around day 15-20, require IVP above 50%, and never hold past 10 DTE. You're always in the sweet spot and never in the gamma danger zone.

👉 Read the full article: Why I Sell Monthly Options Over Weeklies

Educational Corner: Credit Spread Calculator: How to Analyze Returns Before Every Trade

Most traders eyeball their credit spreads. They glance at the premium, check the width, and decide it "looks good enough." That's not analysis. That's guessing.

This week, I published the complete calculator framework: the five numbers every credit spread requires before entry (net credit, max loss, ROC, breakeven, probability of profit), three real scenarios showing exactly how the math guides decisions (the standard setup at 31.6% ROC, the tempting high-premium trap at 72.4% ROC but only 68% POP, and the "looks safe" trap at 11.1% ROC that should be skipped), the ROC formula and why return on capital matters more than raw premium, and my six-filter evaluation checklist (IVR above 30, ROC above 25%, delta 0.15-0.25, breakeven 4-5%+ buffer, max loss under 5% of account, bid-ask under $0.10).

Implied Perspective members see every filter applied in real time each week with specific tickers, strikes, and management rules. The 186% cumulative return since October is this framework in action.

👉 Read the full breakdown: Credit Spread Calculator

👉 [See the framework in action with real trades at theoptionpremium.com →]

📊 The Implied Truth

New to the Implied Truth? I recently published a complete guide on how to read these tables, column by column: what IV Rank vs. IV Percentile really means, how to use ADX and directional indicators, and how to scan the full table in under two minutes. Read the guide: How to Read the Implied Truth Tables

Where the Probabilities Favor Selling (IV Rank > 50%)

Eight ETFs sit above 50% IVR this week. The rotation within the sell zone is notable: GDX surged to 87.33% (from 73.29%), now the richest on the board. Gold miners are getting crushed while gold itself rallies, creating a dislocation that inflates options premiums. EEM rose to 77.24%. GLD jumped to 65.93%.

USO cooled from 92.89% to 63.07% IVR but remains firmly in the sell zone with 96% IVP. The trend is monstrous: ADX at 56.79, the highest reading in the entire watchlist, with +DI at 39.75 crushing -DI at 7.79.

GDX surged to 87.33% IVR, 98% IVP. ADX at 30.64 with -DI dominant (46.13 vs 11.87). Rich premium into a downtrend. Bear call spreads or iron condors with bearish lean.

EEM at 77.24% IVR, 98% IVP. ADX 19.29 with -DI dominant. Weak trend, expensive options. Iron condor territory.

The remaining five ETFs above 50% IVR, their directional readings, and the specific framework for how to trade each one are in this week's Implied Perspective.

👉 [Get the full 8-ETF breakdown and 100+ equity watchlist at theoptionpremium.com →]

Respect the Trend

Energy remains the only sector with +DI dominant and rising relative strength. USO's ADX at 56.79 is extraordinary. XLE at 47.64 remains institutional. XOP at 40.16 with RS 79.05 continues to confirm. PMCCs with conservative deltas remain the approach.

XHB's downtrend intensified further. ADX surged to 41.22 with -DI at 44.79 vs +DI at 10.62. This is the strongest bearish signal on the entire board. Despite 62.27% IVR, selling puts here is fighting a freight train.

XLU flipped. Last week +DI was still dominant. This week -DI (34.63) overtook +DI (17.39), and RSI printed "New Below 50." The defensive safe haven is no longer safe.

TLT is worth watching closely. IVR jumped to 44.88% (from 33.99%), IVP 85%, as yields spiked on hawkish Fed. Approaching sellable territory.

The Indexes Crossed 40%

This is the biggest development for premium sellers this week. SPY's IVR pushed to 40.39%. DIA hit 44.49%. QQQ at 37.83%. All three have IV Percentile above 92%. Two weeks ago these were in the "don't sell" zone. Now the expected value math is tipping in favor of selling, especially on DIA which is closest to the 45% threshold where credits become compelling.

Only three ETFs remain in cheap-vol territory: XLP (23.27%), XLB (17.73%), and FXI (23.90%).

Breadth in Freefall

$MMFI crashed to 22.35 from 29.12 last week and 50.85 three weeks ago. That's a 56% decline in breadth in just three weeks. $MMTH dropped to 42.42, well below 50 now, with ADX at 46.91 and -DI at 52.01. Both indicators show the most powerful bearish readings we've tracked this year.

When fewer than 23% of stocks are above their 50-day moving average, the market is at oversold extremes. Historically, breadth readings this low have preceded mean-reversion rallies. But "historically" doesn't account for an active war, $100 oil, and a Fed that just raised its inflation forecast. Be patient. Let the data confirm stabilization before getting aggressive.

The full Notable Moves section (IBIT, TSLA, SMH, TLT), this week's complete framework, and the 100+ equity volatility breakdown are available in The Implied Perspective.

👉 [Read this week's Implied Perspective at theoptionpremium.com →]

The Bottom Line

NVIDIA said $1 trillion. The Fed said "not yet." Iraq said force majeure. The Russell 2000 said correction.

In three weeks, breadth fell from 50.85 to 22.35. Oil went from $90 to $98 to $112 Brent. The S&P 500 dropped from 6,878 to 6,506. The Fed raised its inflation forecast and seven members now see zero cuts this year. Powell's term ends in May. Kevin Warsh is waiting.

And through all of it, the opportunity set for probability-based traders got wider. Eight ETFs above 50% IVR. Indexes pushing above 40% for the first time. Eleven names with IV Percentile above 93%. The premiums are real. The math is confirmed.

PCE Friday is the next catalyst. If the Fed's preferred inflation measure runs hot, the "higher for longer" narrative hardens. If it cools, the oversold breadth readings could trigger a snap-back rally. Either way, the 30-60 DTE window captures the move.

Follow the math. Size conservatively. And make sure your capital is still here when the dust settles.

🎓 Coming Soon: PMCC Mastery

PMCC Mastery covers everything: LEAPS selection, short call management, the roll decisions that separate sustainable income from frustrating losses. This isn't a strategy overview. It's a complete implementation system.

Following PMCC Mastery: Credit Spreads: The Probability Player's Edge | The Complete Wheel Strategy Course

Want early access? Reply with "PMCC" to [email protected].

Note: Anyone on the $1,495 annual all-access plan receives every course at no extra cost, including PMCC Mastery and everything that follows.

A Quick Note

March expiration came and went this week, and across all three services, our members locked in gains ranging from 1.42% to 22.85% on their positions. Two losses in the mix, because that's the reality of trading and I will never hide from it. Since October, the Implied Perspective has a cumulative return above 186%, and we have the potential to add another 12.40% and 11.59% early next week. The Income Foundation continued grinding out steady, repeatable Wheel income. And in Wealth Without Shares, we're preparing to add brand new PMCC positions this week, including the potential launch of our S&P Wealth Without Shares portfolio.

I share all of this because you deserve to see the full picture. That's the deal I made with myself when I started this, and it's the deal I'm making with you every Sunday evening.

But the numbers aren't what I want to close with today.

What I want to say is that the continuous messages I've been receiving from so many of you have genuinely moved me. Some of you have written to tell me this newsletter changed how you think about risk. Others have shared that a single article gave you the confidence to place your first trade. A few of you have told me you forward this email to your kids. I don't have the words for how much that means.

I started The Option Premium because I believed there was room in this industry for something honest. Something built by a real trader, not a marketing department. Something that respects your intelligence and your time. The fact that so many of you have shown up, stayed, and trusted this process tells me that belief was right.

We're adding new positions this week. New portfolios are coming. Live webinars, courses and video content are on the way. And through all of it, the promise stays the same: no ads, no affiliates, no noise. Just the math, the education, and the transparency you signed up for.

From the bottom of my heart, thank you for being here.

🔗 Let's Stay Connected

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Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today's insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.

Andy Crowder Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist | The Option Premium

The Option Premium is published for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.