THE OPTION PREMIUM

Weekly Options Intelligence | April 5, 2026

The Five-Week Losing Streak Snapped. Iran Signaled Willingness to Talk. And Monday Changes Everything.

If this is your first issue, welcome. I'm Andy Crowder. I've been trading options professionally for over 24 years, and I built The Option Premium because I believe honest, probability-based options education should be available to anyone willing to learn. This newsletter is free and always will be. The three paid services that sit alongside it exist for those who want to go deeper. Everything I publish is written to be clear, accurate, and worth your time. Dig in. Read the articles. Ask questions. Hit reply and write me anytime. I read every message and I respond to every one. And to those of you who've been here week after week and continue to share this with others, thank you. The reason new readers keep finding us is because of you, and I'm grateful for that every single Sunday.

📰 What the Data Said This Week

For five straight weeks, every rally got sold. This week, the market finally held its ground.

It started Tuesday. Iran's official news agency reported that President Pezeshkian was willing to end the war with guarantees. The S&P 500 surged 2.91% to 6,528.52, its best day since May. The Dow jumped 1,125 points. The Nasdaq rallied 3.83%. Oil plunged. For the first time in five weeks, buyers showed up and stayed.

Wednesday built on it. Trump posted that Iran's president had asked for a ceasefire, though the U.S. would only consider it if the Strait of Hormuz were "open, free, and clear." Iran's foreign ministry called the claim "false and baseless." Markets rose anyway. The S&P 500 added another 0.72% to close at 6,575.32. Brent dipped below $102. The narrative was shifting from "when does this end" to "how does this end."

Thursday nearly gave it all back. Trump warned the war would continue for weeks and threatened to send Iran "back to the stone ages." Oil surged above $111 per barrel, its highest since June 2022. The Dow dropped 668 points at its low. Then Iranian state media reported that Iran and Oman were drafting a protocol to allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and markets ripped back. The S&P 500 recovered from down 1.5% to close up 0.11% at 6,582.69. That reversal told you something important: the market wants to rally. It's looking for any reason to do so.

Friday the markets were closed for Good Friday. But the jobs report dropped: 178,000 nonfarm payrolls, nearly triple the 65,000 expected. Unemployment fell to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year. The labor market is holding up far better than the oil-driven recession fears suggested. Bond yields ticked higher. The market will digest this Monday morning alongside the April 6 Iran deadline.

For the holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 gained 3.4%. The Dow rose nearly 3%. The Nasdaq outperformed at 4.4%. The five-week losing streak, the longest since 2022, is over.

The VIX dropped from 31.05 to 23.87, a 23% decline in a single week. Breadth recovered sharply: $MMFI jumped from 24.01 to 35.10, the biggest weekly uptick since the selloff began. $MMTH rose from 42.77 to 47.77. Both are still below 50, but the freefall paused and reversed decisively. The selling pressure that dominated March is easing.

For premium sellers, the landscape shifted. The sell zone contracted from 13 ETFs above 50% IVR to six (GDX, URA, GLD, EEM, USO, EFA). But 14 ETFs still pass the dual filter of IVR above 35% and IVP above 50%. The premiums are thinner than last week's extremes, but the opportunity set remains well above normal.

And then there's Monday. April 6 is Trump's deadline for Iran to negotiate before strikes on energy infrastructure resume. Everything we saw this week was the market positioning ahead of that binary event.

This week, Implied Perspective members hold four active positions: a VIX hedge (long call), an NVDA bull put spread, an SPY iron condor, and an IWM bear call spread. Every entry and exit is shared in real time and archived. The full trade log, alerts, and the 100+ equity volatility breakdown are part of every subscription.

👉 [See what members are trading this week at theoptionpremium.com →]

📅 The Week Ahead

April 6 dominates everything. If Iran reopens the Strait or negotiations produce a real framework, oil drops, volatility compresses further, and the relief rally has room to run. If the deadline passes without progress and strikes resume, oil could spike toward $120+ and the correction deepens. PCE Thursday is the inflation metric the Fed watches most closely. After the hawkish March dot plot (inflation projection raised to 2.7%), a hot reading would confirm the "higher for longer" stance. Bank earnings begin Saturday and set the tone for Q1 reporting season. The 178,000 jobs report hits live equity markets for the first time Monday morning.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

Where We Stand (And Why Patience Is Winning)

The S&P 500 is down 3.4% year to date. The Dow spent two weeks in correction territory. The Nasdaq is down 7.1%.

Our Small Dogs portfolio? Up 8.74%. That's a 12+ point gap against the S&P 500, from five dividend-paying stocks managed with Poor Man's Covered Calls in the most volatile market since 2022.

Since October, the Implied Perspective has closed 19 trades: 17 winners, 2 losses. 89.5% win rate. 26 days average hold time. Average winner: +14.1%. Average loser: -12.0%. Cumulative gains over 207%. Four positions currently open: a VIX hedge (long call), an NVDA bull put spread, an SPY iron condor, and an IWM bear call spread. Every entry and exit shared in real time and archived.

Two strategies. Two timeframes. Both working. When market conditions challenge one approach, the other benefits. That's the design.

"Really enjoying the service so far, I have already recommended a few people to check it out." ...Dave

"Have you thought about writing a book? Seriously, these are easy to read articles and packed with such valuable information!" ...Patti

"As a newbie, I have learnt so much from your newsletters and articles. People like you make this journey for people like me wanting to be an options trader so much easier and better!" ...Raj

"I attended the webinar that Ripster hosted this Thursday. I learned a lot and really appreciated your calm, clear approach." ...Prathima

"The part about the 2% rule ensures that a single loss is a footnote, not a season-ending injury. Over 50 trades at 80% win rate, the math works. But only if no single loss can take you out of the tournament." ...Griff

Messages like these mean more to me than I can properly express. I read every single one. I sit with them. Because what so many of you describe, the frustration of searching for something real, the disappointment of services that promise education but never deliver, that's exactly why I built this. Every article, every trade alert, every hour I spend on this newsletter is for real people making real decisions with real money. Thank you all for the ongoing support. Emails like these remind me that what we're building here has real value, and I'm incredibly grateful for that.

And here's what else matters: patience.

We have a new Pick of the Cycle trade ready, a GLD entry waiting for the right price, and capital set aside for the next opportunity. None of them have been deployed. In a market where the VIX just went from 31 to 24 in a single week and April 6 could reverse everything, the discipline to wait is worth more than any individual trade. Patience has protected capital through five weeks of selling pressure. It will continue to protect capital through whatever comes next.

If you find this newsletter and our services genuinely helpful, I would greatly appreciate it if you could help me grow by simply sharing it with a friend, a trading group, or anyone you think might benefit. The Option Premium grows almost entirely by word of mouth, and every single share matters more than you know.

👉 [See the full trade log and join at theoptionpremium.com →]

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles

🗓️ Tuesday: Credit Spreads in Heightened Volatility: Why This Is the Seller's Market We've Been Waiting For

🗓️ Thursday: How to Embrace Heightened Volatility: What 90 Years of Data Says About Turbulent Markets

🗓️ The Research Desk - Advanced Options Strategies: The Professional's Guide to Premium Selling

This week I had the privilege of collaborating with the team at the Tenet Trade Group for a live webinar on my approach to options trading. The response has been humbling, and I truly appreciate the Tenet team for allowing me to speak to their wonderful community about probability-based premium selling.

This companion article covers everything we discussed in that session. The single idea that separates professional options traders: probabilities over predictions. Why the best traders are sellers, not buyers, and the academic data behind it. The Law of Large Numbers and why most traders abandon statistically sound strategies during normal losing streaks. Why IV Rank (above 35%) and IV Percentile (above 50%) should be on your screen before every trade. The expected move formula and how it turns IV into actionable strike placement. The 7-step process for finding every trade. And the full credit spread and iron condor rulebook: 30-60 DTE, 0.15-0.25 delta, close at 50% profit, stop at 2-2.5x credit, review at 21 DTE, exit at 10 DTE.

Implied Perspective members see this entire framework applied in real time each week. 19 trades since October. 89.5% win rate. 26 days average hold time. Every trade archived.

👉 Read the full article: Advanced Options Strategies

👉 [See the framework in action with real trades at theoptionpremium.com →]

🎓 Options 101: The Real Difference Between Buying and Selling an Option

Every options trade has two sides. Someone buys. Someone else sells. One pays the premium. The other collects it. One holds a right. The other accepts an obligation. Most beginner education covers only the buyer and mentions the seller almost as an afterthought. That gap is where real understanding begins.

Here's the insight that changes everything: when you buy an option, time works against you every single day. You need to be right about direction, timing, and magnitude all at once. When you sell an option, time works for you. You don't need to predict the future. You need the future to stay within a reasonable range.

Neither side is always right. Buying has its place for high-conviction directional views, event-driven trades, and portfolio protection. But understanding both sides before choosing one is the foundation of every sound strategy you'll encounter in this series.

Income Foundation members start here. Cash-secured puts, the simplest selling strategy, are where every new premium seller should begin.

👉 Read the full article: The Real Difference Between Buying and Selling an Option

👉 [See the framework in action at theoptionpremium.com →]

🧠 Mental Capital: Buy Your Umbrella Before the Storm - Why Smart Traders Purchase Volatility Protection When It's Cheap

The VIX just dropped from 31 to 24. Academic research consistently shows that volatility hedges purchased during low-VIX environments cost roughly 3x less and produce better risk-adjusted returns than protection purchased during a crisis. This guide covers three practical methods: rolling OTM SPY puts (simplest), VIX call options (maximum convexity, 10-100x payoff potential), and the funded collar for premium sellers (dedicate 10-15% of monthly premium income to protective positions). Buy your umbrella on a sunny day, when it's cheap, when nobody else is thinking about rain.

👉 Read the full guide: Buy Your Umbrella Before the Storm

Educational Corner: The Pre-Earnings IV Crush Trade: Selling Volatility Before the Announcement

With Q1 earnings season beginning next week (JPM, WFC, MS on April 11), this framework could not be more timely. Every earnings season, the same pattern repeats: IV climbs steadily before the announcement, then collapses 30-60% overnight the moment results are released. This guide covers why IV systematically overestimates earnings moves by 15-20%, the three trade structures (short strangle for experienced traders, iron condor as the default, short put spread for directional lean), entry timing at 1-3 days before for peak IV capture, and six risk management rules for binary events. Size at half your normal allocation. Close the morning after. The IV crush doesn't care whether the stock goes up or down. It cares that uncertainty resolved.

👉 Read the full guide: The Pre-Earnings IV Crush Trade: Selling Volatility Before the Announcement

📊 The Implied Truth

The Weekly ETF Volatility and Trend Intelligence Report

New here? Read the complete guide on how to read these tables: How to Read the Implied Truth Tables

Where the Probabilities Favor Selling (IVR > 35% and IVP > 50%)

The sell zone contracted sharply as the relief rally compressed volatility. Last week: 13 ETFs above 50% IVR. This week: six. But 14 ETFs still pass the dual filter of IVR above 35% and IVP above 50%, which means the opportunity set is narrower but far from empty.

GDX remains the richest at 88.68% IVR, 97% IVP. ADX at 30.66. Relative strength flipped to Above 50 as gold miners bounced. The dislocation is easing, but premiums are still elevated.

URA at 76.41% IVR, 74% IVP. Uranium remains persistently expensive. ADX weak at 16.57. Low trend strength, rich options. Iron condors work here.

GLD at 71.80% IVR, 94% IVP. Gold bounced to $4,703 as safe-haven demand returned. ADX at 25.08 with -DI dominant (38.61 vs 26.51). The trend is weakening, which is constructive for iron condors.

The remaining ETFs passing the dual filter (EEM 66.70%, USO 65.75%, EFA 51.45%, XHB 48.80%, SLV 48.87%, XRT 44.54%, RSP 41.36%, XLI 40.84%, XLE 40.00%, XBI 38.96%, SMH 37.40%), their directional readings, and the specific framework for each are in this week's Implied Perspective.

👉 [Get the full ETF and 100+ equity breakdown at theoptionpremium.com →]

Respect the Trend

The energy dominance faded this week. XLE's relative strength dropped from Above 80 to Above 50. ADX at 41.21 with +DI at 29.19 vs -DI at 22.08. Still bullish, but the conviction weakened as oil pulled back mid-week. USO held stronger with RS at New Above 70 and ADX at 46.22.

XBI bounced hard. RS jumped to Above 50 with +DI at 30.32 overtaking -DI at 26.01. Biotech was one of the best-performing sectors this week. ADX is only 17.14 (weak), so this is early stage. Watch for ADX to climb above 25 for confirmation.

SPY's downtrend eased but didn't break. ADX at 37.45 (still strong) with -DI at 37.60 vs +DI at 18.98. The gap narrowed from 32 points last week to 19 this week. If +DI continues rising while -DI falls, the trend could flip within 1-2 weeks.

XLU is approaching neutral. +DI at 24.37 vs -DI at 24.80. Essentially flat. ADX at 17.74 (weak). The defensive trade is alive again, but needs a clear +DI crossover for confirmation.

The Indexes Pulled Back From the Sell Zone

SPY's IVR dropped from 49.84% to 29.27%. DIA fell from 53.53% to 33.26%. QQQ from 46.46% to 27.74%. All three dropped below the 35% IVR threshold as the relief rally compressed volatility. Index credits are no longer compelling at current levels.

However, all three still have IVP above 79% (SPY 84%, DIA 88%, QQQ 79%). The persistent elevation in IVP tells you the market has been volatile enough, for long enough, that the baseline hasn't normalized. If the April 6 deadline triggers another selloff, IVR will snap back above 35% quickly. Be ready, but don't force it.

Breadth Recovered (But Isn't Healthy Yet)

$MMFI jumped from 24.01 to 35.10. That's an 11-point recovery in a single week, the sharpest uptick since the selloff began. $MMTH rose from 42.77 to 47.77, approaching but still below 50.

The recovery is real but tentative. ADX on $MMFI remains at 38.30 with -DI (33.87) still above +DI (24.74). The trend in breadth is still bearish, but the momentum shifted. A push above 40 on $MMFI next week would confirm that the worst of the breadth decline is behind us.

The full Notable Moves section (IBIT, TSLA, SMH, NKE, META), this week's complete framework, and the 100+ equity volatility breakdown are available in The Implied Perspective.

👉 [Read this week's Implied Perspective at theoptionpremium.com →]

The Bottom Line

The streak broke. The market wants to rally. But April 6 is tomorrow, and the deadline will determine whether this week's hope turns into a real trend reversal or another false start.

For premium sellers: the framework adjusts. When IV is elevated, sell aggressively. When it compresses, be selective. This week is selective. Fourteen ETFs still pass the dual filter, but the richest premiums are in commodities (GDX, URA, GLD, USO) not indexes. If Monday brings a deal, volatility compresses further and you wait. If it doesn't, IVR snaps back above 35% on the indexes and the sell zone reopens fast.

Earnings season starts Saturday. PCE on Thursday. Position your capital for both outcomes, not just the one you hope for.

🎓 Coming Soon: PMCC Mastery

The complete implementation system: LEAPS selection, short call management, roll decisions, and every step from first position to sustained income. Followed by Credit Spreads and Wheel Strategy courses.

Reply "PMCC" to [email protected] for early access. Annual all-access members ($1,495/year) receive every course at no extra cost.

A Quick Note

This newsletter is free and always will be. I've been trading options professionally for over 24 years, and I spend most of my weekend putting this together because I believe what I've learned along the way is worth sharing. Not everyone can afford a paid service, and that shouldn't keep anyone from learning how to think about risk, probability, and premium selling the right way.

For those who want to go deeper, I run three paid services alongside this newsletter. I'm grateful that over 300 members have trusted me with their education and their capital. I don't take that responsibility lightly, and I work every day to earn it.

This week I had the privilege of collaborating with Ripster and the team at Tenet Trade Group. Getting the chance to share my approach with their community was a highlight, and the response has been humbling. Partnerships like that remind me that there are good people doing honest work in this space, and that we're stronger when we support each other. The community here continues to grow, and whether you've been reading since day one or just found us this week, I'm thankful you're here.

I have two requests.

First: forward this email to one person. Just one. Someone who's been searching for something real in this space. Someone who's frustrated by the noise. Someone who deserves better than what this industry typically offers. Or share it in a trading group, an investing forum, a Discord server, a subreddit, a Facebook group, anywhere you think someone might benefit from honest, probability-based education. The Option Premium grows almost entirely by word of mouth, and every single share matters more than you know.

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I'm not going to pressure you. I'm not going to count down a timer or manufacture urgency. The markets provide plenty of urgency on their own. I'm simply telling you that what you see in this free newsletter is a fraction of what happens inside the paid services. And the people who are already there, the Daves and the Rajs and the Prathimas, they'll tell you the same thing.

Thank you for reading. Thank you for sharing. Thank you for being part of something I'm genuinely proud of.

See you next Sunday.

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Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.

Andy Crowder Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist | The Option Premium

The Option Premium is published for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.