Probabilities

Explore the power of probabilities in trading and investing. From understanding the likelihood of price targets to crafting strategies with defined success rates.

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March Madness and Options Trading: The Statistical Edge Every Trader Needs

Delta is your pre-game win probability. Theta is the clock that pays you. Gamma is the buzzer-beater risk. Learn the four Greeks through the March Madness framework with real SPY trade examples.

Investing Without Probabilities: Are We Ignoring the Odds?

41 analysts cover NVDA with a $271.89 average target. The options market prices the 12-month probability of touch at 35%. See the real numbers before chasing the next bold call.

Options 101: Academic Research Shows the Long-Term Edge in Selling Options Premium

This is a Must Read if You Sell Options Premium - An Options 101 look at academic research explaining the long-term edge in selling options premium, including risks, returns, and strategy design.

Andrew Crowder

Options 101: How to Think in Probabilities, Not Absolutes

Learn why successful options trading requires thinking in probabilities rather than predictions. Discover how professional traders use probability-based decision making backed by academic research to generate consistent returns.

Options 101: Why Probabilities Matter More Than Predictions

Learn why successful options traders focus on probabilities, not predictions. Discover how probability of profit, implied volatility, and time decay help traders build consistent returns over guesses about market direction.

🧠 Mental Capital: Annie Duke and the Mental Game of Probabilistic Thinking

Former poker champion Annie Duke teaches traders how to preserve mental capital by thinking in probabilities, not absolutes. Learn how to reframe wins and losses like a pro.

📚 Educational Corner: Why Probability, Not Prediction, Should Guide Every Options Trade

Learn why probability, not prediction, is the key to options trading success. Discover how pros use odds, not guesses, to build a lasting edge.

📚 Educational Corner: What Makes a Trade "High Probability"? Why So Many Options Traders Get It Wrong

They Told You It Was a 90% Winner, They Didn’t Tell You About the 10% That Destroys Portfolios

The Options Industry's $2 Billion Problem

How retail traders lost billions chasing fantasies, and what smart money knows that they don't

Andrew Crowder

📚 Educational Corner: The Mathematics Behind Poor Man’s Covered Calls: Delta, Theta, and Probability

How Intelligent Traders Use Delta, Theta, and Probability to Build Income With Poor Man’s Covered Calls, Without Tying Up Capital

Selling Options for Income: How the Law of Large Numbers Turns Probability into Profit

How selling options for consistent income uses the Law of Large Numbers to turn small statistical edges into reliable profits. The casino model for traders.

Why Chasing High Premiums in Options Trading Leads to Bigger Risks (and How Smart Traders Avoid It)

Chasing big premiums often leads to big losses in options trading. Learn smarter strategies to protect your capital and trade with higher probabilities.