THE OPTION PREMIUM

Weekly Options Intelligence | May 17, 2026

Here's what I'm not going to do this week.

I'm not going to tell you I have a secret. I'm not going to tell you that spots are limited. I'm not going to manufacture urgency around something that doesn't require it, or promise you a result I can't guarantee. I'm not going to dress up marketing as education or pretend that a sales pitch is a trading strategy.

I mention this because I know what else is out there. Many of you have told me. You've emailed me about the service that charged $2,000 for a course and delivered a PDF that could have been a blog post. The "analyst" whose free content was sharp but whose paid product was a different person entirely. The guru with the countdown timer who knew a secret that turned out to be a credit spread explained badly.

The Option Premium exists because I got tired of watching good people get taken advantage of by an industry that treats your inbox like a cash register. Twenty-four years of professional options trading taught me a lot of things, but the one that stuck hardest is this: there is no secret. There is education. There is discipline. There is the commitment to let the math work across hundreds of trades. That's the whole thing. And it's enough.

One year of proving that has been the most rewarding work of my career. Every reader here found this organically. Every subscriber joined because the work earned their trust, not because a sales page pressured them into it. I'm proud of that, and I don't plan to change the model.

The PMCC Mastery course is close to finished, and I want to give you a proper update. Quite a few of you have responded expressing interest over the last several months, and I appreciate every one of those emails. Annual Total All-Access members ($1,495/year) and Annual Wealth Without Shares ($495/year) will receive the course at no additional cost. As we ramp up over the next month toward launch (exact date still pending), please email me at [email protected] if you'd like to be on the early access list.

The final piece is finding the right platform. I need one that works not just for this course but for everything that follows: Credit Spreads, the Wheel Strategy, and every course I build after that. I've been sorting through numerous course platforms, running free trials, testing interfaces, and I've narrowed it down to a handful. I'm taking my time because I want the right decision for the long term, not the fastest one. As a solopreneur on this journey, I don't want to overwhelm myself. I want to make sure that when the course launches, it is the highest quality options education product available. Period.

Behind the course: YouTube content, live webinars, and a community forum are all in development. Year two will bring all of it, built to the same standard: quality over speed, honesty over hype.

And if something you've read here has helped you think more clearly about options, risk, or probability, pass it along. A friend, a trading group, a forum. The Option Premium has never run an ad. It grows because you decide it's worth sharing. That means everything to me.

📰 What the Data Said This Week

The records came. Then they left.

This was the most volatile week since the ceasefire began. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both set all-time highs on Thursday, with the Dow retaking 50,000 for the first time. By Friday, all three indexes gave most of it back. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,408.50, roughly flat from where it started. The Nasdaq finished at 26,225.15. The Dow slipped to 49,526. And the VIX jumped 6.8% to 18.43 on Friday alone.

What happened? Three things converged.

First, inflation came in hot. Tuesday's CPI printed 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% the prior month and the highest since May 2023. Core CPI was 2.8%. Wednesday's PPI was even hotter than expected. Electricity prices surged 2.1% month over month. Fruit and vegetable prices jumped 1.8%. Beef prices rose 2.7%. The war-driven energy shock is no longer just about oil. It's embedding into food, utilities, and services.

Second, the Fed changed hands. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as a Fed Governor 51-45 on Tuesday (only Senator Fetterman crossed party lines), then elevated to Chair on Wednesday. Jerome Powell held his last press conference and confirmed he will remain on the Board of Governors. Warsh takes over a Fed facing the hottest inflation in two years, a 34.3% chance of a rate hike by December (up from 15% a week ago), and a ceasefire Trump himself described as being on "massive life support."

Third, Trump flew to Beijing. Accompanied by Nvidia's Jensen Huang and Elon Musk, the President met with Xi Jinping to discuss the 90-day trade truce. No progress was announced on Iran. Brent crude surged to $109. Treasury yields spiked across the board on Friday: the 10-year hit 4.50%, the 30-year breached 5.0% for the first time since the cycle peak.

The Friday selloff was the punctuation. S&P 500 fell 1.24%. Nasdaq dropped 1.54%. Russell 2000 lost 2.44%. Gold crashed 2.63%. The yield spike triggered a risk-off move that erased the mid-week records.

For premium sellers, this is the richest environment in weeks. The sell zone expanded to 10 ETFs above 50% IVR. SMH surged to 87.93% ahead of Nvidia's May 20 earnings. QQQ crossed above 50% IVR for the first time (55.45%). But the composition shifted: breadth cracked. $MMFI fell below 50 for the first time since the recovery began (49.74). $MMTH is barely holding at 50.44. The rally is narrowing sharply. Tech and semis are elevated. Everything else is rolling over. When the sell zone expands because of fear, not momentum, the framework says: sell, but with tighter sizing and a shorter leash.

This week, Implied Perspective members are managing June cycle positions ahead of Nvidia. Every entry and exit shared in real time and archived.

👉 [See what members are trading this week at theoptionpremium.com →]

📅 The Week Ahead

Nvidia on Wednesday is the event. SMH IVR at 87.93% tells you the options market is pricing an enormous implied move. If Nvidia beats and raises (as it has for seven consecutive quarters), the semis rally has room to extend and the premium collected by sellers before the event gets crushed in their favor. If Nvidia disappoints, SMH could give back weeks of gains in a single session. Home Depot and Lowe's on the same days will tell us whether consumers are spending through the energy shock or pulling back. This is Warsh's first full week as Fed Chair. He has said he favors less forward guidance and fewer press conferences. The market is recalibrating expectations for a very different communication style.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles

🗓️ Tuesday: The Anatomy of an All-Weather PMCC

🗓️ Thursday: The LEAPS Collar: Protecting Your PMCC When Conviction Wavers

🗓️ The Research Desk: The Poor Man's Covered Call Approach to Dividend Kings

📈 Fifty Years of Consecutive Dividend Increases. ~80% Less Capital. Monthly Premium Income.

Last week we covered PMCC strategies on the Dividend Aristocrats (25+ years of consecutive increases). This week we go further: the Dividend Kings, companies that have raised their dividend for at least 50 consecutive years. Coca-Cola. Procter & Gamble. Johnson & Johnson. Walmart. The most durable income businesses in America. The honest problem is capital: a diversified portfolio of seven Kings at 100 shares each runs $80,000 to $120,000. The PMCC resolves that at roughly 20-25% of the capital. Take KO at $78.66: buying shares costs $7,866. A deep ITM LEAPS at the $65 strike costs $1,700. Capital efficiency of 5-to-1. The short call generates 7.6% return on capital in 38 days. The dividend trade-off is real but resolvable: freed capital in T-bills at 4-5% plus monthly call premiums of 2-4% more than offsets the 2-3% dividend giveup. The exception is ultra-high yielders like Altria (7.5%), where the shares are likely the better structure. Seven liquid Kings that make a workable PMCC portfolio: KO, JNJ, PG, PEP, WMT, ABT, and CL.

👉 Read the full guide: The Poor Man's Covered Call Approach to Dividend Kings

🎓 Options 101: How to Read an Options Chain Without Getting Overwhelmed

The first time most investors open an options chain, they see a wall of numbers and close the tab. That reaction is completely understandable. An options chain for a liquid stock can contain dozens of expiration dates and hundreds of strike prices. It looks like a spreadsheet designed to discourage participation.

It is not. It is a structured table with a consistent logic. Calls on one side, puts on the other, strike prices down the center. The columns that matter for premium sellers: bid and ask (the prices that define your entry), delta (the probability proxy that tells you how likely the option expires in the money), implied volatility (which tells you whether premiums are rich or thin), and open interest (which tells you whether the contract is liquid enough to trade efficiently). Before every trade: check IV rank to know whether the environment favors selling. Find your target delta (0.15-0.20 for credit spreads). Verify the bid-ask spread is tight ($0.05 or less on liquid names). And confirm open interest in the hundreds or thousands. Four steps, same sequence every time.

Income Foundation members start here. The chain is where every trade begins.

👉 Read the full article: How to Read an Options Chain Without Getting Overwhelmed

👉 [See the framework in action at theoptionpremium.com →]

🧠 Mental Capital: Why the Bull Put Spread Is the Defined-Risk Cousin of the Covered Call

Most options traders learn the covered call first. Then ask them to define the maximum loss: technically, the stock can fall to zero. The premium collected is a modest offset against catastrophic downside.

The bull put spread answers a question most covered call sellers never articulate: what if you could capture the same directional bias, the same premium decay, and the same statistical edge, but with a hard floor under the trade? A short put and a covered call have nearly identical payoff profiles (put-call parity). The bull put spread is the short put with a long put attached at a lower strike, which caps the maximum loss. Capital efficiency: a covered call on a $52 stock ties up $5,200. The equivalent bull put spread ties up $420. Same directional exposure, roughly 8% of the capital. Choose the covered call when the stock has its own place in the portfolio. Choose the bull put spread when the goal is directional premium collection with defined risk and efficient capital deployment.

👉 Read the full article: Why the Bull Put Spread Is the Defined-Risk Cousin of the Covered Call

Educational Corner: The Wheel After Assignment: When Covered Calls Finally Earn Their Place

📈 Covered Calls as a Management Tool, Not an Entry Strategy.

In a recent article I made the case that covered calls as an entry strategy are capital-inefficient compared to short puts. Same risk profile, five times the capital. But there's a second half to that story, and it begins the moment you get assigned.

After assignment, the capital is already committed. The covered call becomes the right tool: it converts a static stock holding into a position that collects theta, reduces cost basis, and defines an exit target. Strike selection is driven by cost basis, not stock price. If assigned at $48 with an effective basis of $46.50 after the put premium, your call strike goes at or above $46.50. The cost basis reduction compounds: Month 1 collects $0.85, basis drops to $45.65. Month 2 collects $0.70, basis drops to $44.95. Month 3 the stock rallies to $47, shares get called away at $46, profit of $1.05 per share. The stock never recovered to $48. But systematic premium collection created a profitable exit the stock price alone didn't provide. Three behavioral traps to avoid: anchoring to the assignment price instead of cost basis, refusing to exit when the thesis breaks, and selling calls below cost basis during drawdowns.

The Income Foundation members see the wheel applied in real time. Every trade archived.

👉 Read the full article: The Wheel After Assignment

👉 [See the framework in action with real trades at theoptionpremium.com →]

📊 The Implied Truth

The Weekly ETF Volatility and Trend Intelligence Report

New here? Read the complete guide on how to read these tables: How to Read the Implied Truth Tables

Where the Probabilities Favor Selling (IVR > 35% and IVP > 50%)

The sell zone expanded to 10 ETFs above 50% IVR. But this expansion was driven by fear, not momentum. CPI at 3.8%, spiking yields, a Friday selloff, and breadth cracking below 50 pushed IV higher across sectors. The premiums are the richest since the war peak in March, but the character of the elevation has changed.

SMH dominates at 87.93% IVR, 99% IVP. Nvidia reports Wednesday. The options market is pricing the largest implied move of any ETF on the board. RS dropped to New Below 70 (was New Above 80 last week) as the Friday selloff cooled the parabolic trend. ADX at 41.68 (institutional). +DI at 35.22 vs -DI at 22.68. The trend is still bullish but momentum is fading. Pre-earnings bull put spreads if you're willing to hold through the event, or wait and sell post-announcement IV crush.

XLK at 66.01% IVR, 90% IVP. RS still Above 70. ADX at 37.29 (strong). +DI at 40.20 vs -DI at 20.47. Tech premiums are rich and the trend holds despite Friday. Bull put spreads.

URA at 63.80% IVR, 51% IVP. RS Below 50. -DI dominant. Iron condors.

XHB surged to 62.96% IVR, 88% IVP. Homebuilders repriced as yields spiked. RS Below 50 with -DI at 44.24 vs +DI at 16.04. This is a bearish trend with rich premiums. Bear call spreads.

Also above 50% IVR: XLE 61.75% (81%), XOP 58.56% (78%), GDX 58.15% (72%), RSP 57.12% (75%), QQQ 55.45% (85%), XLI 52.60% (84%).

Additional ETFs passing the dual filter: EEM 58.82% (91%), EFA 44.17% (86%), USO 44.50% (82%), XLV 48.56% (67%), TLT 37.56% (60%), DIA 33.66% (78%).

QQQ crossed above 50% IVR for the first time (55.45%) with 85% IVP and RS Above 70. This is the strongest QQQ sell signal we've seen. The premiums are exceptional.

👉 [Get the full ETF and 100+ equity breakdown at theoptionpremium.com →]

Respect the Trend

The trend leadership cooled significantly this week. SMH dropped from New Above 80 to New Below 70 RS. QQQ and XLK held Above 70 but their ADX readings remain high, meaning the trends are still strong even as momentum pulled back on Friday.

SPY slipped to New Below 70 RS. +DI at 38.41 vs -DI at 20.95. ADX at 27.45 (confirmed). The bullish trend is intact but the momentum score downgraded for the first time in seven weeks.

XLE flipped bullish again. RS Above 50. +DI at 36.13 vs -DI at 22.70. Brent at $109 as the ceasefire crumbles. Energy is back on the bullish side with rich premiums.

XHB is the most bearish ETF on the board. -DI at 44.24 vs +DI at 16.04. RS Below 50. Yields spiking to 5% on the 30-year crushed homebuilders. Bear call spreads on 62.96% IVR.

The Indexes: QQQ Above 50% IVR

QQQ's IVR jumped from 45.48% to 55.45%. SPY rose to 30.59% (approaching 35%). DIA at 33.66% (also approaching). The CPI shock, yield spike, and Nvidia event risk are all driving index IV higher. QQQ is now the richest index opportunity in months.

Breadth: $MMFI Dropped Below 50

This is the most significant breadth development since the recovery began. $MMFI fell from 63.14 to 49.74, dropping below 50 for the first time since early April. $MMTH barely held at 50.44. The +DI/-DI relationship flipped on both measures: $MMFI now shows -DI at 49.52 vs +DI at 20.95. $MMTH shows -DI at 42.82 vs +DI at 15.96.

The breadth trend has reversed from bullish to bearish. Fewer than half of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average. The rally that looked broad two weeks ago is now concentrated almost entirely in tech and AI names. Everything else is rolling over.

This doesn't mean the market crashes. It means the rally is narrowing, and narrow rallies are more fragile. For premium sellers, it means sector selection matters more than ever. Tech and energy have rich premiums. Cyclicals and defensives are weakening.

The full Notable Moves section, this week's complete framework, and the 100+ equity volatility breakdown are available in The Implied Perspective.

👉 [Read this week's Implied Perspective at theoptionpremium.com →]

The Bottom Line

CPI at 3.8%. Treasury yields spiking (10-year 4.50%, 30-year 5.0%). Warsh is Chair. Powell is gone. Breadth cracked below 50. And Nvidia reports in three days.

The sell zone expanded to 10 above 50% IVR, but this is fear-driven expansion, not momentum-driven. The premiums are the richest since the war peak. QQQ crossed above 50% IVR for the first time. SMH is at 87.93% ahead of Nvidia. But the character of the market changed this week: breadth deteriorated, yields spiked, and the Friday selloff reminded everyone that records and selloffs can coexist in the same week.

For premium sellers: the framework is clear. Sell when IV is elevated. But when the elevation comes from fear rather than greed, size tighter. Close faster. And respect the direction of the trend, which in tech is still up, and in homebuilders and gold miners is now down. Nvidia Wednesday is the catalyst that either extends the AI rally or tests its foundations.

🎓 Coming Soon: PMCC Mastery

The complete implementation system: LEAPS selection, short call management, roll decisions, and every step from first position to sustained income. Followed by Credit Spreads and Wheel Strategy courses.

Reply "PMCC" to [email protected] for early access. Annual all-access members ($1,495/year) receive every course at no extra cost.

A Quick Note

I continue to believe the best way to grow a real community of like-minded, respectful adults is organically. The last year has proven that to be true.

In a world of direct marketers dressed up as traders and analysts, I am determined to show that there is another way. Treat your inbox with respect. Give honest, transparent education. Make no promises you can't keep. Present the math as it is, not as people wish it were. That is how adults deserve to be treated, not with far-fetched pitches designed to get you to buy something, only to find the product is far inferior to what you expected. That is, and will never be, the case here.

The Option Premium grows because you share it. Because you forward it to a friend who's been burned by three other services. Because you drop it in a trading group without me ever asking. That word of mouth is the most honest growth engine there is, and I'm proud to be building on it.

For those ready to go deeper: The Implied Perspective at $129/month. The Income Foundation at $9. Wealth Without Shares at $49. All three for $149. The $1,495 annual plan includes every course, webinar, and video I build.

Thank you for your time. Thank you for your trust. And thank you for allowing me to continue doing the work I love.

See you next Sunday.

🔗 Let's Stay Connected

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Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today's insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.

Andy Crowder Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist | The Option Premium

The Option Premium is published for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.