THE OPTION PREMIUM

Weekly Options Intelligence | April 19, 2026

7,000. Twelve Straight Days. Record Highs on Both Indexes. VIX at 18. The Ceasefire Holds, Barely.

Every week I sit down to write this newsletter, I'm reminded that there's a real person on the other end reading it. Maybe you're a subscriber who's been here since day one. Maybe this is your first issue. Either way, you took time out of your Sunday to be here, and that matters to me. I've been trading options professionally for over 24 years, and this newsletter exists because I believe what I've learned belongs in a format that's honest, clear, and free. The paid services are there for those who want the full framework, real trades, model portfolios, webinars and deep-dives. But the education? That's for everyone. Read what interests you. Send me your questions. I answer every email personally. And if something here changes how you think about risk or probability, share it with someone who needs it. That's how this community grows.

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📰 What the Data Said This Week

The S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time in history.

Let that register. Six weeks ago, the index was down 9% from its January peak. The Dow was in correction. The Nasdaq had fallen 13% from its highs. Oil was above $110. The VIX was above 31. The word "recession" was in every headline.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95. A new all-time record. By Thursday it pushed to 7,041.28. The Nasdaq closed at 24,102.70, also a record, and extended its winning streak to 12 consecutive sessions, the longest since July 2009. Both indexes have now erased every point they lost since the war began on February 28.

The week started ugly. Islamabad talks collapsed over the weekend. Vance left without a deal. Iran demanded war reparations, control of the Strait, and frozen assets. Washington demanded nuclear disarmament. Neither side budged. Trump responded by announcing a U.S. naval blockade of all Iranian ports, deploying 10,000+ sailors and over a dozen warships to enforce it.

Monday sold off on the news. Oil jumped back toward $99. Asian markets fell across the board. But by Tuesday, a White House official told CNBC that a second round of negotiations was "under discussion." Trump told the New York Post the talks "could be happening over the next two days." And on Wednesday, in a Fox Business interview, Trump said the war is "very close to over" and predicted the stock market "is going to boom."

The market decided to believe him.

Wednesday's rally took the S&P 500 through 7,000 for the first time. Thursday added to it. Trump confirmed he spoke with Lebanese President Aoun and Israeli PM Netanyahu about a ceasefire framework. Israel-Lebanon talks were underway. TSMC reported a 58% jump in Q1 profits on AI demand and guided for 30%+ revenue growth. Jobless claims fell to 207,000, the lowest since June 2024.

But the foundation isn't as solid as the headlines suggest. The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% (from 3.3%), citing energy price spikes and supply disruptions. CPI is at 3.3%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sits at a record low. The Strait of Hormuz is under a U.S. naval blockade, not an open waterway. Only a handful of ships have transited since the ceasefire. Oil is still near $93, well above the $67 pre-war level. And the ceasefire expires in days.

For the week (through Thursday), the S&P 500 gained 3.3%. The Nasdaq rose 5.2%. The Dow added 1.4%. The VIX dropped to approximately 18, its lowest since before the war.

For premium sellers, the landscape has fundamentally shifted. The VIX went from 31 to 18 in three weeks. The sell zone has contracted from 13 ETFs above 50% IVR at the peak of fear to what is likely a handful at best. When IV compresses this sharply, the premiums thin. The framework adjusts: be very selective, target the specific pockets where IV remains elevated (commodities, select sectors), and wait for the next catalyst rather than forcing trades in a low-IV environment.

The ceasefire clock is ticking. A second round of talks may begin this week. If they produce a framework, the relief rally deepens and IV continues to compress. If they don't, and the ceasefire expires without extension, the market reprices everything it priced in over the last 12 days.

This week, Implied Perspective members hold four active positions. Management alerts went out as the VIX compressed below 18. Every entry and exit shared in real time and archived.

👉 [See what members are trading this week at theoptionpremium.com →]

📅 The Week Ahead

The ceasefire expiration dominates. Trump's two-week truce was announced April 7. The window closes around April 21-22. If a second round of talks begins and produces a framework for extension, markets hold their gains. If the deadline passes without progress, expect a rapid repricing: oil higher, VIX higher, and the record highs tested from below. Earnings season continues in full swing. Tesla reports Tuesday after the bell. Boeing, AT&T, and a wave of industrials follow. These are the first reports to reflect a full quarter under war-driven inflation and energy costs. Guidance will matter more than results.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles

🗓️ Tuesday, April 14th: What Is Beta Weighting? The Tool That Turns a Scattered Options Portfolio Into a Single, Readable Number

🗓️ Thursday, April 16th: Why Boredom Is the Premium Seller's Greatest Asset

🗓️ The Research Desk: IV Rank vs. IV Percentile

📈 Why Every Premium Seller Needs Both (and Which One I Trust More)

If you sell options, implied volatility drives every decision you make. But raw IV by itself is almost useless. A stock at 35% IV might be at the highest it's been all year, or it might be at the lowest end of its range. The number alone doesn't tell you which. This is why IV Rank and IV Percentile exist. And while most traders treat them as interchangeable, they are not. IV Rank uses two data points (the 52-week high and low). IV Percentile uses all 252 trading days. The difference matters most when a single volatility spike has distorted the 52-week range. A stock with IVP of 85 (clearly elevated) might show an IVR of only 25 because a one-week earnings panic 11 months ago stretched the denominator. IVR says don't sell. IVP says the premium is rich. IVP is right. My minimums: IVR above 35% and IVP above 50% before considering any spread. The strongest signal is dual confirmation with IVR above 50 and IVP above 65.

👉 Read the full guide: IV Rank vs. IV Percentile

🎓 Options 101: What Is a Strike Price, and How Do You Choose One?

Every options contract contains a number that defines the line. Above it, the call has value. Below it, the put has value. That number is the strike price, and choosing it is one of the most consequential decisions in all of options trading.

Here's the connection that transforms strike selection from guesswork into a decision framework: every strike has a delta. Delta approximates the probability that the option expires in the money. A 0.20 delta put has roughly a 20% chance of expiring ITM, which means 80% probability of keeping the full premium as a seller. Instead of asking "which strike looks right," you can ask "which probability of profit is appropriate for this trade given my outlook and risk tolerance?" That's a fundamentally different question, and it's the right one.

If you're selling covered calls, the 0.20-0.35 delta range offers meaningful premium with a low probability of assignment. If you're selling cash-secured puts, choose a strike where you'd genuinely be comfortable buying the shares, then confirm the delta and premium make the trade worthwhile. The options chain gives you everything. The skill is knowing how to read what's already in front of you.

Those that are interested in The Income Foundation start here. This is where the strike price framework meets real positions.

👉 Read the full article: What Is a Strike Price, and How Do You Choose One?

👉 [See the framework in action at theoptionpremium.com →]

🧠 Mental Capital: You've Been Doing Covered Calls Wrong

The covered call is the first strategy most traders learn. Buy 100 shares. Sell a call. Feel safe. But there's a mathematical identity hiding inside the position that most traders never learn: a covered call has the exact same risk profile as a short put at the same strike. Not similar. Identical. Same P&L at every price point at expiration. Same delta (+50). Same theta. Same gamma. Same vega.

The difference? Capital. A covered call on a $150 stock requires $15,000 in stock ownership. A short put at the same strike requires approximately $3,000 in margin. Same risk. One-fifth the capital. The freed $12,000 can fund five additional positions across uncorrelated underlyings, sit in treasury bills, or serve as your cash reserve. This is why professionals overwhelmingly prefer selling puts for new premium-selling positions. Covered calls make sense when you already own shares (from assignment), want dividends, or want long-term capital gains treatment. For everyone else, the short put is the smarter expression of the same thesis.

👉 Read the full article: You've Been Doing Covered Calls Wrong

Educational Corner: The Jade Lizard: How to Sell Premium With No Upside Risk

There's a structure most retail traders have never heard of that solves a problem every premium seller encounters: how do you collect premium on both sides of a stock without unlimited risk?

A jade lizard combines a short put with a bear call spread (short call + long call). When the total credit exceeds the width of the call spread, upside risk is eliminated entirely. All risk is on the downside, just like a cash-secured put, but with 20-30% more premium collected. The math: sell the $140 put for $2.10, sell the $157.50 call for $1.80, buy the $160 call for $1.20. Total credit: $2.70. Call spread width: $2.50. Because $2.70 exceeds $2.50, even if the stock rallies to infinity, you net at least $0.20 profit. The engineering principle is simple: if total credit is greater than the call spread width, upside risk is zero. If it's not, you have a different structure entirely. Always do the math before entry.

The jade lizard fits neutral-to-bullish outlooks on stocks you'd willingly own, in elevated IV environments (IVP above 50). Management focuses entirely on the put side: 50% profit target, 2x stop, 21 DTE review, 10 DTE exit. If the stock rallies hard, do nothing. The structure handles it.

Implied Perspective members see structures like this applied when conditions are right. 21 trades since October. 80.9% win rate. Every trade archived.

👉 Read the full article: The Jade Lizard: How to Sell Premium With No Upside Risk

👉 [See the framework in action with real trades at theoptionpremium.com →]

📊 The Implied Truth

New here? Read the complete guide on how to read these tables: How to Read the Implied Truth Tables

Where the Probabilities Favor Selling (IVR > 35% and IVP > 50%)

The sell zone held steady at three ETFs above 50% IVR, but the composition shifted. USO dropped out as oil declined. URA moved up. The ceasefire continues to drain IV from the broad market, and the richest premiums now live in commodities and semiconductors. Fourteen ETFs pass the dual filter (IVR above 35%, IVP above 50%).

URA leads at 66.43% IVR, 58% IVP. Uranium remains the most persistently elevated name on the watchlist. RS Above 50 with +DI at 36.15 vs -DI at 22.48. ADX at 13.86 (weak), meaning no established trend. Iron condors fit here: rich premiums, no directional conviction.

GDX at 54.64% IVR, 72% IVP. Gold miners continue to benefit from safe-haven demand even as the broader market rallied to all-time highs. RS Above 50 with +DI at 31.04 vs -DI at 26.35. ADX at 17.09 (weak). Bull put spreads with a mild bullish lean.

SMH at 50.50% IVR, 75% IVP. Semiconductors posted the strongest relative strength of any ETF this week: RS Above 70. TSMC's 58% profit jump and Nvidia's quantum AI models drove the sector. +DI at 37.61 vs -DI at 21.31. ADX at 23.50 (developing). The trend is firmly bullish and the premiums remain rich. Bull put spreads are the play.

The remaining ETFs passing the dual filter (XLI 48.46%, XHB 46.87%, XLE 45.87%, RSP 45.70%, XLV 43.83%, XOP 42.62%, GLD 40.84%, USO 40.84%, EEM 39.95%, SLV 38.30%, XLK 37.09%), their directional readings, and the specific framework for each are in this week's Implied Perspective.

👉 [Get the full ETF and 100+ equity breakdown at theoptionpremium.com →]

Respect the Trend

This week confirmed the shift we've been tracking. The six-week downtrend is over. The bullish crossover is here.

SPY completed the bullish crossover. +DI at 42.03 vs -DI at 22.51. That's a 20-point gap in favor of the bulls. RS moved to Above 70, the strongest reading since the war began. ADX at 26.55 confirms the new uptrend has real strength. Three weeks ago, -DI was dominant at 37.60 vs +DI at 18.98. The reversal is complete.

QQQ and XLK both at Above 70 RS. Tech is leading the recovery, driven by AI earnings (TSMC, Nvidia ecosystem) and ceasefire-related supply chain normalization. QQQ's +DI at 41.12 vs -DI at 20.70. XLK's +DI at 43.23 vs -DI at 20.98. Both have ADX above 25. These are confirmed bullish trends.

XLE is still bearish. -DI at 36.98 vs +DI at 21.58. RS Below 50. ADX at 26.99 (strong). Energy remains the only major sector in a confirmed downtrend. USO flipped to New Below 50 RS. The oil trade is unwinding, but it's not over: XLE IVR at 45.87% with 74% IVP still offers premium on the bear call side.

EEM surged. RS Above 50 with +DI at 42.64 vs -DI at 23.39. Emerging markets benefited the most from the ceasefire as energy-import-dependent economies repriced. ADX at 17.19 (weak but rising fast). This is early-stage bullish with strong directional conviction.

The Indexes: Deep Below the Sell Threshold

SPY IVR dropped to 20.50%. DIA at 29.80%. QQQ at 24.68%. All are well below the 35% IVR threshold. IVP is normalizing: SPY at 56% (was 68%), DIA at 70% (was 76%), QQQ at 59% (was 66%). The war premium has almost entirely drained from index options. Index credits are not compelling in this environment. The edge is in specific sectors (commodities, semis), not in broad indexes.

Breadth Accelerated: From Crossing 50 to Nearly 70

$MMFI surged from 50.14 to 69.19 in a single week. That's a 19-point jump, the largest weekly increase we've tracked. $MMTH rose from 52.60 to 58.53. Both are well above 50, with +DI decisively dominant.

$MMFI's +DI is at 49.36 vs -DI at 15.60. That's a 34-point gap, the widest we've seen. ADX at 34.73 confirms the bullish breadth trend is strengthening, not fading. Nearly 70% of stocks are now trading above their 50-day moving average. Market participation is the broadest it's been since before the war began.

The full Notable Moves section, this week's complete framework, and the 100+ equity volatility breakdown are available in The Implied Perspective.

👉 [Read this week's Implied Perspective at theoptionpremium.com →]

The Bottom Line

The S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq posted 12 straight winning days. Both indexes are at all-time highs. Every point lost since the war began has been recovered.

But this rally is built on hope, not resolution. The ceasefire expires this week. The Strait is under a naval blockade, not open. Oil is still 40% above pre-war levels. CPI is at 3.3%. Consumer sentiment is at a record low. The IMF cut global growth to 3.1%.

For premium sellers: the VIX at 18 means the broadest premiums are gone. The framework is clear: when IV is low, be very selective or shift to buying strategies. When it expands again, and it will, be ready. The edge in a low-IV environment is patience, not activity.

Earnings season continues. The ceasefire clock is ticking. And the market is priced for a deal that doesn't exist yet.

🎓 Coming Soon: PMCC Mastery

The complete implementation system: LEAPS selection, short call management, roll decisions, and every step from first position to sustained income. Followed by Credit Spreads and Wheel Strategy courses.

Reply "PMCC" to [email protected] for early access. Annual all-access members ($1,495/year) receive every course at no extra cost.

A Quick Note

There's a version of this newsletter that would be easier to write. I could summarize the week in three bullet points, paste a chart, and call it done. Most newsletters do exactly that. I choose not to, and I want to tell you why.

Every number in the Implied Truth section gets pulled individually and cross-referenced against the prior week. Every article summary is written to give you enough to learn something new without giving away so much that you don't click through. Every sentence in the market commentary is checked against what actually happened, not what I wish had happened. It takes most of my weekend. I do it because I think you can tell the difference between something that was assembled and something that was built. And based on the emails I receive, you can.

That care is the product.

The trades, the alerts, the courses, those are extensions of it. If you want to see the full framework applied in real time, the Implied Perspective starts at $129/month. The Income Foundation starts at $9. Wealth Without Shares at $49. All three for $149. The $1,495 annual plan includes everything I build, forever. If you're not ready for that, just keep reading. Keep sharing. Keep sending me your questions. This newsletter exists because of you, and I don't forget that. See you next Sunday.

🔗 Let's Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I'd love to hear from you. 📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

📺 Subscribe on YouTube so you'll be notified when the first videos are released.

👥 Join the private Facebook group or connect with me on X. Send me your topic requests, whether for the newsletter, YouTube, or webinars. Seriously, send them. 🙂

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today's insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.

Andy Crowder Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist | The Option Premium

The Option Premium is published for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.