THE OPTION PREMIUM

Weekly Options Intelligence | May 3, 2026

Nasdaq 25K. S&P 7,230. Q1 Earnings +27.8%. Best Month Since 2020. Oil +12% in a Week. VIX at 17.

A quick note before today's issue.

The anniversary offer closes tonight at 11:59 PM Eastern. After that, $987 goes back to $1,495.

For context, this is the first sale I've run since launching a year ago, and the last time I'll offer this price. I keep prices well below the industry norm year-round, which is why I don't run sales as a rule. The anniversary felt worth one exception.

Stepping back from the offer, I want to acknowledge what's actually remarkable about this year. Every one of you found this organically and decided to support it. No ads, no affiliates, no shortcuts. That kind of growth is the slowest path and the most honest one, and it's an achievement I'm genuinely proud of. You did that.

There's a real community here. I see it in the metrics: the open rates, the replies, the way readers move between issues, the questions that come back thoughtful and specific. People are actually engaging with this work, with each other, and with the ideas. I can't wait to build the tools that support all of it. Videos, webinars, courses, community forums, more research, more education. Year two is going to be a year of growth.

Thank you for an extraordinary first year and for letting me build this my way. I'm incredibly grateful, and I won't soon forget it.

On to today's issue.

📰 What the Data Said This Week

The Nasdaq crossed 25,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 closed at 7,230. And Q1 earnings growth came in at 27.8%, the strongest since Q4 2021. The best month for all three indexes since 2020.

This was the Mag 7 earnings superweek, and the results exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. Four of the five largest companies in America reported on the same night (Wednesday, April 29), and Apple followed Thursday after the bell. Every single one beat estimates.

Microsoft delivered $82.9 billion in revenue, up 18%, with AI business hitting a $37 billion annual run rate, up 123% year over year. Google Cloud revenue surged 63%, nearly 16 points above the 47% consensus estimate. The cloud backlog nearly doubled to $460 billion. Amazon's AWS grew 28%, two points above estimates. Meta posted $56.3 billion in revenue, up 33%, though it lost 20 million users due to internet disruptions in Iran and WhatsApp restrictions in Russia. And Apple? Revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17%. iPhone revenue jumped 22%. Greater China surged 28%. Forward guidance of 14-17% growth crushed the roughly 10% Wall Street expected.

The AI capex race accelerated. Alphabet raised its 2026 spend to $180-190 billion. Meta lifted to $125-145 billion. Microsoft guided to $190 billion. Amazon held at roughly $200 billion. These four companies alone will spend approximately $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Apple, by contrast, spent $4.3 billion in capex in the first half of fiscal 2026, proving you can deliver 22% earnings growth without lighting cash on fire.

But the week wasn't just about earnings. Oil surged 12% as Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei cast doubt on any deal with the U.S., vowing not to give up nuclear or missile technology and signaling Tehran would keep control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped above $111. WTI hit $105. Trump confirmed the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue. The energy trade, which had been unwinding during the ceasefire, reversed hard. XLE flipped from bearish to bullish in a single week.

Then came the Fed. The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on Wednesday, as expected, but what wasn't expected was the drama. Four members dissented, the most since October 1992. One (Governor Miran) wanted to cut. Three others objected to the easing bias in the statement, signaling they're not comfortable implying the next move will be lower while oil is above $100 and CPI is at 3.3%. The statement acknowledged that "developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty." And in what may be the most consequential moment of the week: Jerome Powell confirmed this was his last press conference as Chair. He will remain on the Board of Governors, but Kevin Warsh advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee the same day. The transition is underway.

Friday closed the month and opened May with records. Apple's earnings powered the Nasdaq through 25,000 to close at 25,114.44. The S&P 500 finished at 7,230.12. The Russell 2000 touched 2,812.82, approaching its 52-week high.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%. The Nasdaq rose 1.1%. The Dow was roughly flat. April was the best month since 2020 for all three indexes.

For premium sellers, the landscape shifted again. The sell zone contracted from 11 ETFs above 50% IVR to 7. But the composition changed meaningfully: energy returned (XLE 64.68%, XOP 59.89%) as oil surged, while SMH cooled from 71% to 55% as the post-Intel frenzy normalized. Fifteen ETFs pass the dual filter (IVR above 35%, IVP above 50%). The VIX dropped to 16.99.

The tension remains. The ceasefire clock continues to tick. Iran's supreme leader signaled no deal. Oil is back above $100. And the market is priced for continued AI capex growth that now totals $700 billion across four companies. Any crack in that thesis, or any escalation in the Strait, reprices everything.

This week, Implied Perspective members are building out June cycle positions as IV expands in energy and commodities. Every entry and exit shared in real time and archived.

👉 [See what members are trading this week at theoptionpremium.com →]

📅 The Week Ahead

Friday's jobs report is the main event. The April Nonfarm payrolls number will tell us whether the labor market held up through the war-driven energy shock. Consensus expects around 60,000 jobs added, a significant slowdown from recent months. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%. If payrolls disappoint, rate cut expectations could shift. If they hold, the "no changes in 2026" pricing holds firm.

ISM Services on Tuesday will reveal whether the services sector is absorbing oil-driven cost pressures.

Disney, Arm Holdings, and Uber report Thursday, extending the earnings season narrative. And Nvidia reports May 20, the next major catalyst for the semiconductor trade. With Warsh expected to be confirmed the week of May 11 and the next FOMC meeting June 16-17 (his first as Chair), the leadership transition at the Fed will shape the policy conversation all month.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles

🗓️ Tuesday: Earnings Risk Management: How to Navigate Earnings Season Without Blowing Up Your Portfolio

🗓️ Thursday: The Trillion Dollar Equation Behind Every Winning Trade

🗓️ The Research Desk

📈 Mastering the Bull Put Spread: The Essential Guide

The bull put spread thrives on something far less exciting than chasing the next big trade: staying put. You don't need the stock to soar. You don't even need it to rise. All you need is for it to not fall too far. This guide walks through a real IWM trade: sell the $214 put, buy the $209 put, collect $0.56 credit, $444 defined max risk, 81.48% probability of success, 12.6% cycle return. The four numbers that define every trade: probability of success, probability of touch (37.22%, which is not the same as probability of losing), breakeven ($213.44), and return on risk. Delta as your early warning system: safe zone (0.10-0.20), caution zone (0.20-0.30), action zone (above 0.30). Everything is visible before the trade is placed. That clarity is the edge.

📈 Poor Man's Covered Call vs. Covered Call: Which Is Better?

Same short call. Same premium. Same strike. Same expiration. The only variable: $41,200 in shares versus $12,500 in LEAPS. A covered call on MSFT at $412 generates a 5.2% cycle return. The PMCC generates 14.8%. Nearly 3x the return on capital. The freed $28,700 can fund two to three additional income positions in parallel. The PMCC wins on capital efficiency, return on capital, and flexibility. The covered call wins on tax treatment and dividend access. Neither is universally superior. The math tells you which one fits your situation.

👉 Read both articles: Mastering the Bull Put Spread: The Essential Guide to the Risk-Defined Option Strategy and Poor Man’s Covered Call vs. Covered Call: Which Strategy Is Better?

🎓 Options 101: In the Money, At the Money, Out of the Money: Once and for All

Three terms. Every options investor encounters them immediately. Most never get a clear enough explanation to use them with confidence.

A call is in the money when the stock price is above the strike. A put is in the money when the stock price is below the strike. At the money means the stock and strike are roughly equal. Out of the money means exercising would produce no financial benefit. In the money options carry intrinsic value and higher deltas. Out of the money options carry only time value and have a higher probability of expiring worthless, which is exactly why sellers prefer them.

Every strategy discussion you'll encounter references these categories. The covered call seller choosing between ITM and OTM strikes is choosing between higher premium with more assignment risk and lower premium with more income stability. Understanding moneyness is the vocabulary that makes everything else in options education legible.

Income Foundation members start here. This is where the language of options meets real positions.

👉 Read the full article: In the Money, At the Money, Out of the Money: Once and for All

👉 [See the framework in action at theoptionpremium.com →]

🧠 Mental Capital: Why 0DTE Options Are a Tax on Impatience

Zero days to expiration options are the fastest-growing segment of the options market. The appeal is obvious: rapid results, no overnight risk, constant engagement. But the explosive growth of 0DTE trading is not evidence that it works. It's evidence that it satisfies a psychological need, and that need, the craving for immediacy, is precisely what destroys premium-selling portfolios over time.

0DTE creates a compulsion loop structurally identical to slot machines: rapid feedback, variable rewards, easy re-entry. fMRI studies show traders and gamblers activate the same brain regions. The 30-60 DTE window breaks this loop by inserting weeks between entry and resolution. A 0DTE trader makes 750+ decisions per year under time pressure. A 30-60 DTE trader makes 100-180 with days to deliberate. Every additional trade is a decision point where errors can occur. The 0DTE trader who believes they've eliminated risk by avoiding overnight exposure has actually concentrated risk into a window where gamma is at maximum, bid-ask spreads are at their widest, and recovery time is zero. Transaction costs alone ($12,500/year at 5 trades/day vs $600/year at 10 trades/month) tell the story.

👉 Read the full article: Why 0DTE Options Are a Tax on Impatience

📈 Educational Corner: The Theta Decay Sweet Spot: Why 30-60 DTE Is Where the Money Is Made

The Mathematical Case for the Professional Premium Seller's Window

There's a reason professional premium sellers cluster their entries between 30 and 60 days to expiration. It's not tradition. It's mathematics. Theta decay is not linear. It's a curve that accelerates toward expiration. An ATM option at 60 DTE decays at $3/day. At 7 DTE: $12/day. At 1 DTE: $25/day. The daily theta at shorter dates looks attractive. But theta is not free income. It's compensation for gamma, and gamma accelerates on exactly the same curve.

The 30-60 DTE window is where the theta-to-gamma ratio is most favorable. You collect $4-7/day per contract while maintaining a position that can absorb normal market fluctuations without requiring constant attention. Close at 50% profit and redeploy: 6-8 capital turns per year through the optimal portion of the decay curve, producing more total theta than holding to expiration. Management decisions happen over days, not minutes. Position sizing works at normal account sizes. And IV mean reversion has 2-6 weeks to contribute to the trade.

Implied Perspective members see this window applied in real time. Every trade in the 30-60 DTE range. Every trade archived.

👉 Read the full article: The Theta Decay Sweet Spot: Why 30-60 DTE Is Where Premium Sellers Make Their Money

👉 [See the framework in action with real trades at theoptionpremium.com →]

📊 The Implied Truth

The Weekly ETF Volatility and Trend Intelligence Report

New here? Read the complete guide on how to read these tables: How to Read the Implied Truth Tables

Where the Probabilities Favor Selling (IVR > 35% and IVP > 50%)

The sell zone contracted from 11 to 7 ETFs above 50% IVR. But the composition shifted meaningfully: energy surged back in as oil hit $105, while semiconductors cooled from their post-Intel peak. Fifteen ETFs pass the dual filter (IVR above 35%, IVP above 50%).

XLE returned to the top at 64.68% IVR, 80% IVP. Oil surged 12% this week after Khamenei rejected deal terms and Trump confirmed the naval blockade continues. RS flipped back to Above 50 with +DI at 31.65 vs -DI at 17.43. Last week XLE was bearish. This week it's bullish. The trend reversed on a dime as oil prices dictated. Bull put spreads now, not bear calls.

URA at 64.53% IVR, 55% IVP. Uranium's persistent elevation continues. RS Above 50. ADX at 15.55 (weak). Iron condors.

XOP at 59.89% IVR, 78% IVP. Energy producers rallied with oil. +DI at 29.51 vs -DI at 19.36. RS at New Below 50, but the trend is turning with the underlying commodity. Watch for RS to cross back above 50 for confirmation.

Also above 50% IVR: XHB 56.62% (82% IVP), SMH 54.99% (80%), RSP 51.60% (61%), XLK 50.23% (74%).

Additional ETFs passing the dual filter: XLI 48.55% (82%), USO 48.89% (88%), GDX 47.13% (62%), EEM 44.84% (82%), XRT 43.29% (90%), EFA 40.98% (84%), GLD 35.08% (68%), QQQ 34.87% (63%).

QQQ is one tick below 35% IVR (34.87%). SPY at 25.56%. Index credits remain thin. The edge lives in energy, commodities, and select sectors.

👉 [Get the full ETF and 100+ equity breakdown at theoptionpremium.com →]

Respect the Trend

XLE's reversal is the story of the week. Last week: -DI dominant, RS Below 50, bearish confirmed. This week: +DI at 31.65 vs -DI at 17.43, RS Above 50. Oil surging from $94 to $105 flipped the energy trend in a single week. This is a direct response to Khamenei's rejection of deal terms and Trump's naval blockade continuation. For premium sellers, this means the bear call thesis on XLE is paused. Bull put spreads are now appropriate on the rich 64.68% IVR.

SPY and QQQ remain firmly bullish. SPY RS at New Above 70, +DI at 41.21 vs -DI at 17.48. QQQ RS at Above 70, +DI at 43.46 vs -DI at 13.57. Both ADX readings near 25, confirming the uptrends. The Mag 7 earnings superweek cemented the bullish case.

SMH cooled but stayed rich. IVR dropped from 71.42% to 54.99% as the post-Intel frenzy normalized. RS still at Above 70. ADX at 32.83 (strong confirmed). The semis trend is intact but the premiums are no longer the richest on the board. Energy reclaimed that title.

The Indexes: Below 35% IVR

SPY IVR dropped to 25.56%. DIA at 28.37%. QQQ at 34.87%, tantalizingly close but still below the 35% threshold. The VIX at 16.99 is near its pre-war level. Index premiums remain thin. The rich opportunities are sector-specific: energy (XLE, XOP, USO), commodities (URA, GDX, GLD), and select sectors (XHB, XLK).

Breadth: Stable and Healthy

$MMFI at 63.72 (was 62.36). $MMTH at 55.90 (essentially flat from 55.92). Both remain well above 50 with +DI dominant. The breadth trend is stable, neither accelerating nor deteriorating. Market participation remains broad enough to support the rally, though leadership continues concentrating in tech and AI.

The full Notable Moves section, this week's complete framework, and the 100+ equity volatility breakdown are available in The Implied Perspective.

👉 [Read this week's Implied Perspective at theoptionpremium.com →]

The Bottom Line

The Mag 7 delivered. All five beat estimates. Q1 earnings growth of 27.8% is the strongest in over four years. The Nasdaq crossed 25,000. The S&P 500 hit 7,230. April was the best month since 2020.

But oil surged 12% in a single week. Iran's supreme leader rejected deal terms. Trump confirmed the naval blockade continues. The Strait remains effectively closed. CPI is still at 3.3%. And the FOMC meets Wednesday with war-driven inflation as the backdrop.

For premium sellers: the sell zone contracted from 11 to 7 above 50% IVR, but the energy pocket reopened with XLE at 64.68% and XOP at 59.89%. The composition shifted from "everything elevated" to "energy and commodities elevated, indexes thin." Be selective. Target the pockets where IV is genuinely rich. Size conservatively ahead of FOMC. And let the 30-60 DTE math do what it does.

One year in. The beginning of something much bigger. Thank you for being here.

🎓 Coming Soon: PMCC Mastery

The complete implementation system: LEAPS selection, short call management, roll decisions, and every step from first position to sustained income. Followed by Credit Spreads and Wheel Strategy courses.

Reply "PMCC" to [email protected] for early access. Annual all-access members ($1,495/year) receive every course at no extra cost.

A Quick Note

One year.

I don't have a grand speech prepared. I just want to say this plainly: building The Option Premium has been the most fulfilling work of my professional life. Not because of the numbers or the track record, but because of you. The emails you send. The questions you ask. The friends you share this with. The trust you place in someone you've never met to help you think about your money.

I started this because I was tired of watching good people get taken advantage of by an industry built on noise. The countdown timers. The "limited spots available." The gurus who know a secret. There is no secret. There is only the work of learning how options actually function, understanding the math, and staying disciplined long enough to let that math compound.

That's what we do here. Every Sunday evening. And I'm just getting started.

The PMCC Mastery course is nearly ready. Video content is in development. The community forum is being designed. Year two will bring all of it. And the standard will be the same standard it's always been: quality over speed, honesty over hype, education over entertainment.

If this newsletter has earned a place in your Sunday routine, I have one ask: share it with one person who deserves better than what this industry typically offers. Every new reader who finds us got here because someone like you decided it was worth passing along. That word of mouth is everything.

For those ready to go deeper: The Implied Perspective at $129/month. The Income Foundation at $9. Wealth Without Shares at $49. All three for $149. The $1,495 annual plan includes every course, webinar, and video I build, forever.

No timers. No manufactured urgency. Just an open door.

Thank you for year one. Let's build year two together.

See you next Sunday.

🔗 Let's Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I'd love to hear from you. 📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

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Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today's insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.

Andy Crowder Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist | The Option Premium

The Option Premium is published for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.