A Note of Thanks

To all of my readers, thank you.

Your loyalty, your kind words, and the steady stream of thoughtful emails mean more than I can say. You’ve stuck with me as I’ve built The Option Premium, offered feedback, shared wins, and asked sharp questions that make the work better every week. I read it all, and I appreciate all of it.

I’ve been talking about the next phase for a while, YouTube videos, more live sessions, and a slate of subscriber-only webinars that go deeper into mechanics, risk, and real trade management. That’s where I can teach in detail, with examples that compound. Whether you’re new here or you’ve followed along since the beginning, I hope you’ll join me for what’s next.

A quick highlight: Wealth Without Shares has been a bright spot. The approach, capital-efficient, rules-based PMCCs and defined-risk income, has delivered exactly what I set out to build: steady, repeatable edges without tying up a mountain of cash. It’s working, and I’m going to do more of it.

With the calendar turning, I’ll be adding new portfolios and refreshing the current ones at the start of the new year. If you’ve been on the fence, now is a great time to come inside: learn the approach, get comfortable with the playbook, and then follow along as I put on my 2026 positions, especially in the “lazy way” portfolios, where the mechanics stay simple and the discipline does the heavy lifting.

Thank you again for reading, for sharing, and for keeping this community grounded, curious, and focused on what actually works. I’m excited for what’s ahead, and I’d love to have you with me.

As always, if you have any questions, never hesitate to email me. I’m more than happy to help.

Andy
Founder and Chief Options Strategist, The Option Premium

📰 Market Commentary: What’s Left in the Tank?

A Quick Update

• Birthday candles for the bull: From the October 2022 low, the S&P’s ~90% climb is impressive, but not abnormal. Mid-cycle vibes, not late-cycle gasps.

• Policy turning from brake to neutral: Cooler September inflation lowers the odds of policy error. Cuts and a slower balance-sheet runoff would be a tailwind, not a tripwire.

• Earnings take the baton: With valuations stretched, profit growth needs to carry the next leg. Early Q3 read-throughs say “resilient,” not “fragile.”

• Broader stage, bigger cast: Still overweight equities, but we’re scouting beyond the usual mega-cap headliners, industrials, consumer cyclicals, health care, and international SMID look interesting.

Where we actually are

Bull markets don’t expire from old age; they end when the economy does or the Fed insists. Neither seems likely right now. The wall of worry, China deadlines, softer labor, AI sticker shock, is real, but so are friendlier liquidity conditions and steady earnings. Expect gains to grind, not gallop.

Why this matters for options traders

• Into earnings: IV bids up, then mean reverts. That’s a fertile field for defined-risk premium (iron condors/credit spreads) pre-event and PMCC adds post-crush on quality names.

• If breadth improves: More sectors participating = more tickers with “paid but not panicked” IV. That’s our wheelhouse.

Positioning we like (and why)

Premium selling (core):

• 30 to 60 DTE CSPs and iron condors in liquid ETFs and large caps. Take the easy wins at ~50% max profit. Keep deltas boring; let theta do the bragging.

PMCCs with room to run:

• Build with liquid underlyings and moderate IVR. After events, consider multi-LEAPS with fewer shorts (e.g., 3–5 LEAPS vs. 1 to 2 calls) to keep upside while still pulling income. If price sprints, roll shorts up/out to reopen space rather than choke the trend.

Rotation targets:

• Industrials & Discretionary: improving earnings quality, less multiple risk.

• Health Care: unloved, liquid options, predictable calendars.

• International SMID: use CSPs to enter at a discount; stick to the liquid vehicles.

Risks worth respecting (not fearing)

• We’re overdue for a wobble: 100+ days without a 5% pullback raises the odds of a shakeout. Good. Pullbacks refill IV and your opportunity set.

• Calendar landmines: Tech prints, tariff headlines (late Oct./early Nov.), and any Fed slip in tone. Right-size positions so a 1 to 2σ shock stings but doesn’t scar.

What we’ll watch next 1 to 3 weeks

• Guidance quality (margins > vibes), AI spend translating to revenue, and breadth metrics: A/D lines, % above 50-DMA, leadership beyond the “7.”

Bottom line

The market is shifting from multiple expansion to earnings propulsion. That usually means more dispersion, and that’s where options traders earn their keep. Stay systematic, keep your deltas honest, and let theta handle the heavy lifting.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles 

🗓️ Tuesday, October 21st - LEAPS 101: What They Are and Why Pros Use Them - Stock Replacement Explained

🗓️ Thursday, October 23rd - Covered Calls on a $3 Stock: A BYND Editorial That Puts the Numbers First

🧭 The Earnings Playbook

(Educational and idea-generating for all readers)

Tuesday (10/28) before the open: PYPL, SOFI, UNH.

Wednesday (10/29): BA and VZ before the bell; the main event after the close, GOOGL, META, MSFT, plus CMG.

Thursday (10/30) after the close: AAPL, AMZN, COIN, MSTR, RDDT, RIOT. Liquidity and attention will peak Wednesday and Thursday evenings around the mega-caps; early week is lighter but still tradable.

By the numbers, the cleanest combinations of liquidity and premium sit in GOOGL (IVR ~53%, EM ~245-277.5), AMZN (IVR ~40%, EM ~210-240), and MSFT (IVR ~34%, EM ~500-550). AAPL is the volume king but with a muted IVR (~21%), favoring more conservative or calendar-style approaches. For earlier looks, PYPL (IVR ~48%, EM ~64 to 76) and SOFI (high IV ~78%, EM ~26-33) stand out. If you want movement, size small in the satellites, RDDT, RIOT, COIN, where IV is highest and markets run wider.

🧭 Earnings Season Options Trade: A Step-by-Step Guide: Explore the in-depth, quantitative approach to the best strikes, probabilities, and setups for earnings trades: learn the mechanics of the high-probability approach.

👉 For detailed frameworks, including delta targets, exit triggers, and trade structuring ideas, join the paid edition: The Implied Perspective. 

⁉️ Did You Know?

“Probability of Touch” ≈ 2× the Delta

Most traders anchor to delta as a rough “chance of finishing ITM.” Useful, but incomplete. Price doesn’t move in a straight line, and the probability that price touches your short strike before expiration is roughly twice the option’s absolute delta.

Why it matters

• Touches are common, not fatal. A 16-delta short call has ~16% chance to finish ITM, but ~32% chance to get tagged intracycle. If you panic at every touch, you’ll over-adjust profitable trades.

• Plans beat emotions. Knowing touch odds up front lets you pre-decide management: reduce size, roll, or wait for reversion, rather than reacting to noise.

Quick rules of thumb

• Touch ≈ 2×|Δ|.

  • 10-delta ≈ ~20% chance of a tag.

  • 25-delta ≈ ~50% chance of a tag.

• EM context. Touch odds jump if your strike sits inside the Expected Move; they fall outside it.

• Time cuts both ways. More DTE = more paths to a touch and more time to recover.

Use it like a pro

• Write a “touch playbook.” Before entry, define: If touched, then (trim/roll/convert to spread/hold with stop on underlying).

• Stagger strikes. Mix 10 to 20 delta shorts so a single swing doesn’t pressure the whole book.

• Manage winners, not noise. Many tags revert; take profits at 25 to 50% on premium targets and avoid churn.

Bottom line: Delta frames your finish odds; probability of touch frames your journey. Trade the path, not just the destination.

🎓 Options 101: The First Steps to Trading

The #1 Mistake New Options Traders Make

Most beginners treat options like lottery tickets, chasing cheap calls/puts and ignoring probability, IV, and position size. This quick guide shows a simple, durable process you can use on day one to flip the odds in your favor.

You’ll learn:

• How to match strategy to IV (when to sell vs. buy).

• How to use Expected Move and delta to pick smarter strikes.

• A risk plan that keeps you in the game.

Bottom line: Stop guessing, start managing. Read about the framework professionals and successful retail traders actually use.

👉 Read now → The #1 Mistake New Options Traders Make (And What to Do Instead) 

🧠 Mental Capital

Train not just your trading system, but your trading self.

Why Successful Traders Never Celebrate Too Much or Panic Too Quickly

The pros feel the same rush and fear you do, they just don’t trade on it. This short read shows how to build emotional “circuit breakers” so wins don’t inflate risk and losses don’t derail your process.

You’ll learn:

• A simple post-win/post-loss routine that keeps sizing and exits consistent.

• How to spot your tells (overconfidence, urgency, revenge-trading) before they cost you.

• Journal prompts that convert emotions into data you can actually use.

Bottom line: Edge = process × emotional control. Master the state, protect the account, let the stats work.

👉 Read now → Why Successful Traders Never Celebrate Too Much or Panic Too Quickly

📊 The Implied Truth: Weekly Table Overview

Unlock the Full Picture – Upgrade to access the complete table, including all 100 equities (AAPL, META, AMZN, NVDA and more)

Every number tells a story. Each week, we decode the landscape across the most liquid ETFs, because this is where retail traders get the cleanest signals and the least slippage. But the power isn’t in the data, it’s in how you interpret it.

Below is your edge: a strategic overview that reveals where the premium is overpriced, where price action is exhausted, and where the highest-probability setups exist for the coming week.

This section is here to help you choose what works for your strategy. The numbers are facts, not opinions. Whether you sell premium, buy directional spreads, or trade reversals, the edge begins with understanding volatility and momentum. Let’s dig in.

What This Table Tells Us

• Use this weekly to guide your trade ideas, not predict outcomes.

• The data is factual. There’s no opinion in this grid, only opportunity.

• Choose what aligns with your timeframe, risk appetite, and edge.

Quick Reference

This Week’s Premium Landscape: IV, RSI, and Real Opportunities

What this week’s volatility metrics (IV Rank and IV%) coupled with multi-timeframe RSI data (2, 5, 9, 14) tell us about risk and opportunity.

New this week, more helpful trader metrics: I’ve added ADX/DMI alongside the IV and RSI set.

• ADX (Average Directional Index) measures trend strength (0–100) without caring about direction.

• DMI splits that direction into +DI (buying pressure) and –DI (selling pressure).
  

  Why you care:

• Options sellers (credit spreads, condors) use ADX/DMI to choose the right structure (bull puts vs bear calls vs condors), how far OTM to sell, and how wide to set wings.

• Options buyers (debits, calendars) avoid fighting strong ADX trends and time breakouts/continuations instead of fading strength.

🧭 Where Premium Sellers Should Be Looking

Volatility is firming but not spiking. VIX = 16.38. IV Rank across majors is mostly mid-teens to mid-50s, with a few standouts. That’s a decent backdrop for defined-risk premium selling, favor sensible deltas, wider wings when trend strength (ADX) is elevated, and quick profit-taking.

Put-side (leaders; up-regime via +DI > –DI)

• GLD (IVR 54, RSI14 58, ADX14 34.5, +DI > –DI)

• URA (IVR 86.9, RSI14 53.9, ADX14 31.6, +DI > –DI)

Why these? IVR is elevated enough to get paid; trend strength (ADX ≥ ~30) and buyers in charge (+DI on top) let you sit farther OTM and let theta do the work.

Seller’s play: Bull Put Spreads, 30 to 60 DTE, short ~10 to 12Δ (especially when ADX > 30), target 20 to 30% of width in credit; exit 40 to 60%.
Buyer’s angle: If you do debits, bias to continuation (e.g., call diagonals/calendars) over fades.

Call-side (laggards; down-tilt via –DI > +DI)

• GDX (IVR 61, RSI14 46, ADX14 29.5, –DI > +DI)

• SLV (IVR 43.5, RSI14 52, ADX14 26.2, –DI > +DI)

• IBIT (IVR 38, RSI14 45.7, ADX14 15.0, –DI ≥ +DI)

Why these? Momentum is soft or mixed (RSI14 ≤ ~50), sellers lead on DMI, and call premium is attractive when IVR ≥ 30.

Seller’s play: Bear Call Spreads, 30 to 60 DTE, short ~10 to 12Δ above supply, collect 20–30% of width; exit 40–50%.
Buyer’s angle: If buying options, keep risk tight (put calendars/diagonals) until DMI flips.

Condors (range/transition; ADX < ~25 or DI mixed)

• SPY, QQQ, SMH, DIA, RSP, EFA, XLI, XLB, XRT, HYG, VTI
  (Most show ADX14 in the mid-teens to low-20s; DI often mixed.)

Why these? Trend strength is modest and IVR is mid-range, good hunting for balanced iron condors if you keep wings wide and take profits quickly.

Seller’s play: Iron Condors, 35 to 45 DTE, 12 to 15Δ per side, 25 to 30% of width in credit; exit ~50%.

Delta & Width with ADX

• High/rising ADX: go farther OTM (10 to 12Δ), wider wings, smaller size.

• Low/falling ADX: 12 to 15Δ is fine, standard wings; still book wins fast.

📉 RSI Extremes (2, 5, 9, 14)

What RSI adds:

• RSI(2/5) flags very short-term exhaustion → time entries (sell puts after small dips in leaders; sell calls after pops in laggards).

• RSI(9/14) = backdrop: when strong and ADX is high, fading is hazardous.

Oversold (RSI2 very low): Sparse this week. The closest among majors: TLT (RSI2 ~23) and XLP (RSI2 ~23), not extreme, so be patient.

Overbought clusters (RSI2/14 high → fade only with defined risk):

• SPY, QQQ, VTI, XLK, XLV (RSI2 very hot; RSI14 ≥ ~63).
  How to use (with ADX):

• Strong-ADX leaders (e.g., GLD): prefer put-side income (bull puts) over aggressive call caps.

• Moderate/low-ADX names: small bear calls or balanced condors are the cleaner fade.

⚡ VIX & Market Volatility

VIX 16.38 with firm 9 14-day momentum = sticky, not panicky vol.

Execution checklist:

• When IVR ≥ 30, insist on pricing near the top of your credit band.

• Stagger entries across days; don’t deploy all risk at once.

• Pre-load OCO exits for 35 to 50% gains and “short-tested” alerts.

🏁 Final Signals from The Implied Truth

• “Best setup” screen (weekly): IV Rank > 30 AND RSI(2) < 10 → no pure qualifiers this week; closest names aren’t at true exhaustion. That’s a signal to wait, not to force.

• Put-side quality: URA (IVR 86.9, strong +DI, ADX14 31.6) → Bull Puts on dips with conservative deltas and wider wings.

• Call-side opportunistic: GDX / SLV / IBIT (IVR ≥ 38, –DI on top or mixed) → Bear Calls on bounces, keep risk defined.

• Fades where RSI(14) > ~70: XLV fits, only with defined risk and modest size.

• Breadth mixed: think incremental sizing, start small, add only on favorable signals, and respect exits.

House rules remain the edge: position sizing first, delta discipline second, speed to take profits third. Build the week, one high-probability credit at a time.

ADX/DMI, Why We Added It (and how to use it, fast)

• The problem RSI can’t solve alone: RSI tells you “stretched or not,” but it doesn’t say whether a trend is strong enough to ignore the stretch. That’s where ADX comes in.

• The DMI edge: +DI > –DI means buyers are in control (bias to bull puts). –DI > +DI means sellers lead (bias to bear calls).

• Actionable thresholds:

  • ADX < 20 to 25: range → Iron Condors (12-15Δ) shine.

  • ADX ≥ 25 to 30: trend → pick a side (puts in uptrends, calls in downtrends), use 10-12Δ, wider wings, smaller size.

• Management trigger: If DMI flips against your position and 9-day ADX starts rising, treat it like a regime change, trim or exit quickly.

👉 For detailed idea generation, explore my curated list of highly liquid ETFs and equities in this week’s issue of The Implied Perspective, where I break down specific trade frameworks/strategies, delta setups, and portfolio integration for premium sellers.

📚 Educational Corner: Options Deep Dive

JNJ Deep-Dive - Wealth Without Shares: Small Dogs

Most traders love covered calls, until they realize how much capital 100 shares really traps. This week, we take a closer look at Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) inside our Small Dogs portfolio and show how a Poor Man’s Covered Call (PMCC) quietly outperformed the stock on a per-dollar basis.

The results are eye-opening: the JNJ PMCC delivered a +72.7% return on capital versus +24.3% for the stock, freeing up nearly 80% of the capital for other trades. You’ll see the math behind that edge, how short-call adjustments helped stay long during rallies, and why the Small Dogs rules make the entire portfolio smoother and more diversified.

If you’ve ever wondered how to make blue-chip stocks work harder without tying up cash, this is the playbook, the same logic as covered calls, executed smarter and leaner.

👉 Read the full article: JNJ Deep-Dive - Wealth Without Shares: Small Dogs

🔗 Let’s Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I’d love to hear from you.
📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

📺 Subscribe on YouTube so you’ll be notified when the first videos are released.
👥 Join the private Facebook group or connect with me on X.
💌 Send me your topic requests, whether for the newsletter, YouTube, or webinars. Seriously, send them. 🙂 

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium