Issue Date: October 25, 2026

One small favor before the market week begins.

I’m an options trader, not a marketer. I’ve said since the first issue that this letter would grow on its own or not at all, and so far it has. Nearly everyone reading this arrived because someone they trust passed it along.

If The Option Premium has helped you, I’d be grateful if you’d do the same. Forward it to a friend who’s been asking about options, or share it in an investing group, a forum, or a community you’re part of. Here’s a link that makes it easy:

👉 Share The Option Premium →

And if you’ve had a good experience, a sentence or two about it goes a long way with someone who’s never heard of me.

That’s the whole marketing department. It’s you, and I’m thankful for it.

Andy

The Nasdaq had its worst day since June on Thursday, down 2.6%. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% that day, its biggest drop since July. And yet the week itself was almost flat. SPY lost 0.4%. QQQ lost 0.8%. The Dow gained 0.4%, the equal-weight S&P gained 1.1%, and small caps gained 2%.

That gap between a bad day and a flat week is the whole story. Meta reported Wednesday night, raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to $135 billion to $145 billion, and fell 7% on Thursday. Amazon fell 4.6%, Nvidia 4.4%, Intel and AMD about 8% each. The AI question from last week didn't go away. It got a number attached to it.

But the money leaving tech didn't leave the market. Energy hit a record high as Brent crude passed $116. Chevron gained 3.7% and Exxon 2.4% ahead of their reports Friday. Health care rose 1.5%. Regional banks rose 3.8%. Homebuilders rose 3.7% as the 10-year yield fell for a third straight week, to 4.99%. Bonds, which have done nothing right all year, gained 1.6%.

Breadth made the point loudest. The share of stocks above their 50-day average went from 28.28% to 38.24%. That's the biggest one-week improvement since this letter went on defense in September, and it happened while the index fell. The 200-day measure rose too, from 41.51% to 43.87%.

Two warnings from the tape. Telecom got hit Friday on a report that SpaceX wants to build a fourth wireless carrier. AT&T lost 10.7% on the week. And the metals rolled over: gold fell 4%, silver 5.4%, the gold miners 8.6%.

The VIX closed at 19.45, down 2.7% in a week when the Nasdaq had its worst day in four months. Hold that thought for the Did You Know section.

This is the busiest week of the earnings season. About a third of the S&P 500 reports, and thirteen names on our stock list are among them.

Tuesday brings Coca-Cola, Visa, Boeing, UPS, and PayPal. Wednesday is Alphabet, Microsoft, and FedEx, plus the Fed decision at 2 PM. Thursday is Amazon, Merck, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Intel, and Starbucks, plus third-quarter GDP. Friday is Chevron and Exxon, plus core PCE inflation. Apple reports the following Monday, November 2. The midterm elections are November 3.

The Fed is expected to hold Wednesday. The market has a December hike priced at about 71%, so the statement matters more than the decision. Last week's inflation data and this week's strong PMIs both made that hike harder to argue against.

The appointment paid out, three times. Last Sunday I wrote that whatever Meta said, its premium would be sharply lower Wednesday morning. Meta's IV Rank went from 64% to 46%. Netflix went from a 29% rank to 11% after its report. Tesla's fell to 11% at the 5th percentile. All three stocks moved, and all three sets of options got cheaper anyway. That's what buying options into earnings is up against. Read more about IV crush.

Home Depot and Chevron are the two most expensive names on the board, and both have a date. Home Depot's IV Rank is 95.6% at the 99th percentile, with a trend gap of +24 and the report November 17, three days before expiration. Chevron is at 95.2% and the 97th, up 53% this year, reporting Friday. Merck, last week's 100 and 100, is already down to 84% with its report still four days away. Premium like this is always rich for a reason, and the reason has a date on it. The time to look at these two is the Monday after the report, not the Friday before.

The Weekly ETF Volatility and Trend Intelligence Report

Eight of the ten pass the dual filter, down from nine. Tesla and Micron are the two that don't, and both for the same reason: their reports are behind them. Amazon leads at a 79.6% rank and the 98th percentile with its report Thursday. Apple is at 67% with the report November 2. Alphabet is at 73% with the report Wednesday.

Only one of the ten is in an uptrend: Apple, with a trend gap of +15. Microsoft and Tesla are flat. The other seven are falling. Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, Intel, and AMD all carry rich premium and a broken trend, which is the combination this letter keeps telling you to leave alone.

The zone grew again, from ten to fourteen, and for the first time this autumn half of it has the trend on its side.

The three that have led all month are still leading. XLE is at a 77% rank and the 91st percentile, up 55% this year, with energy at a record high. XLV is at 74% and the 89th with a +19.6 trend gap, the strongest on the ETF board. XOP is at 70% and the 87th. All three ranks went up this week, and all three trends held.

Four more joined them on the confirmed side. TLT, which I flagged last week as the closest bonds had come all autumn, confirmed: a 63% rank, the 90th percentile, and a trend gap of +10.5 after three straight weeks of falling yields. Homebuilders (XHB) are at a 71% rank with a +6.4 gap, the beneficiary of those same yields. Regional banks (KRE) are at 43% with a +9.4 gap. And the equal-weight S&P (RSP) is at 37% and the 63rd with a +14.4 gap, which is the rotation showing up in the premium data.

The other seven are warnings. QQQ at a 70% rank with a -25.6 gap. XLK at 62% and -23.8. Industrials at 56% and -21.5. Semiconductors, emerging markets, biotech, and high-yield bonds all rich and all falling.

The board stays on the November 20 expiration, now 28 days out. Strikes sit at the one-standard-deviation line, about 84% odds of expiring worthless.

This week it's five ETFs and one stock, because the earnings calendar took the rest. XLE, XLV, XOP, TLT, and XHB are the five confirmed ETFs with the most premium. Johnson & Johnson is the one stock on the entire list that passes the dual filter, holds an uptrend, has real options volume, and doesn't report until January. Salesforce was close, but it reports December 2.

Seven ETFs qualify as cheap, down from eleven. Only one trends up: utilities (XLU), at an 11% rank with a +10.9 gap. The other six are falling, led by uranium at -30.5, silver at -26.8, and China at -21.4. Gold's options are at an 18% rank even as the metal falls, which says the market sees the drop as orderly, not a crisis.

SPY sits just outside both zones at a 31% rank and the 74th percentile. Index insurance isn't cheap and isn't rich. It's priced about right for a market that fell 0.4% in a week when its biggest sector had its worst day since June.

$MMFI: 38.24, from 28.28. $MMTH: 43.87, from 41.51. The short-term line made its biggest one-week gain since September and is now 12 points from the switch at 50. The long-term line turned up too.

This is not the all-clear. Both lines are below 50, and a 38% reading means 62% of stocks are still below their 50-day average. But it's the first week since this letter went on defense that the data moved the right way with conviction. The posture holds, smaller, defined, hedged, selective, and for the first time in six weeks the next move in posture might be looser rather than tighter.

Tuesday's piece is about the thing this letter measures every week: the gap between what options cost and what the stock actually does. Fear premium is that gap, and the article shows how to read it, when it's worth selling, and when it's a warning instead.

👉 Fear Premium: Why Options Get Expensive and What to Do About It →

Thursday's piece covers the number everyone sees on the chain and almost nobody uses. Open interest tells you where the crowd is, which strikes will fill, and which ones won't. Read it before you place your next trade in a name you don't know well.

👉 Open Interest Explained →

A bull put spread below the stock, a bear call spread above it, one credit for both. The article runs the whole thing on an $85 stock: $145 collected, $355 at risk, a profit zone from $78.55 to $91.45, and the three management rules that make the structure work. With fourteen ETFs in the Sell Zone and seven of them trending sideways to up, this is the week to learn it.

👉 The Iron Condor: Earning Income When a Stock Goes Nowhere →

Some people call it the risk-free iron condor, and the name is half right. Sell a put, sell a call spread above it, and collect more credit than the call spread is wide. The upside risk is gone by arithmetic. The downside is a cash-secured put. The article builds one on Nvidia, step by step, with every number shown and an honest reading of what risk-free does and doesn't mean.

👉 Risk-Free Iron Condor? How to Trade Nvidia Using the Jade Lizard →

A $5 premium isn't a better deal than a $1 premium. It's a different deal, with more ways to lose. The article shows the math on both ways sellers reach for more, closer strikes and hotter stocks, and what each one costs. Then it gives you the four questions to ask before any trade, in order, with premium last. Read it next to the Home Depot and Chevron readings above.

👉 Why Chasing High Premium Backfires →

The VIX fell this week. The Nasdaq had its worst day since June, and the VIX finished at 19.45, down 2.7%.

That's not a mistake. The VIX measures expected movement in the S&P 500, not the Nasdaq, and the S&P was nearly flat on the week because the money that left tech went into energy, health care, banks, and bonds. Rotation inside an index keeps the index calm even when the pieces are moving hard. That's why the Sell Zone can grow to fourteen names while the VIX falls: the premium is in the sectors, not the index.

👉 If you're ready to go deeper and want real-time trade alerts, full model portfolios, a community of like-minded traders, and ongoing education through live webinars, consider joining one of our services:

The Income Foundation ($9/month): the Wheel. Cash-secured puts to buy quality at a discount, covered calls once you own it.

Wealth Without Shares ($49/month): poor man's covered calls through LEAPS, run as model portfolios with written rules.

The Implied Perspective ($129/month): credit spreads, iron condors, and VIX hedges when the premium is worth selling.

Total Access bundles all three, plus the webinars, courses, and community as they roll out. Every entry and exit is shared in real time and archived, losses included.

👉 See every service at theoptionpremium.com →

Tech had its worst day in four months, and the market barely noticed, because the market is no longer just tech. Breadth jumped ten points. Energy made a record high. Bonds finally confirmed. Seven ETFs now pair rich premium with a trend that agrees, the most since this letter started tracking the dual filter. The posture holds, but for the first time in six weeks the data is arguing for a little less defense, not more. I'd like a second week above 38 before I agree.

See you next Sunday.

Probabilities over predictions,

Andy

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I'd love to hear from you. 📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

📺 Subscribe on YouTube so you'll be notified when the first videos are released.

👥 Join the private Facebook group or connect with me on X. Send me your topic requests, whether for the newsletter, YouTube, or webinars. Seriously, send them. 🙂

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today's insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.

Andy Crowder

Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist | The Option Premium

The Option Premium is published for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.