đŸ“© The Option Premium Weekly Issue - November 2, 2025

Why I Do This Differently

You read my work. You send thoughtful emails. You ask questions that make me think harder about what I'm teaching. Some of you have been here since the early days, others just found me, but all of you make this worth doing.

Building This the Right Way

I'm growing The Option Premium organically, and that's intentional.

I don't flood your inbox. I don't run countdown timers or manufacture urgency with fake deadlines. I don't treat you like a conversion metric. You're here because the work is good, and I plan to keep it that way, by respecting your time and intelligence.

Most services in this space operate like marketing machines. I'm building something different: the ultimate resource for practical, realistic options education. Not hype. Not get-rich-quick promises. Just clear thinking, proven strategies, and the kind of depth and transparency that comes from someone who actually trades what they teach and has for well over two decades.

What's Coming (And Why It Matters)

Here's what I've learned from years of feedback: people want edges they can actually use. Not theory. Not complexity for complexity's sake. Just repeatable, capital-efficient strategies that work when the market cooperates and protect you when it doesn't.

For example, that's why I built Wealth Without Shares the way I did, PMCCs and defined-risk income structures that generate returns without locking up your entire account. It's working. The results speak for themselves, and I'm doubling down on it in 2026.

I'm expanding in three directions:

  • YouTube videos and live sessions where I can walk through real setups, not just describe them

  • Subscriber-only webinars that go deep on mechanics, risk management, and the decision-making that actually matters when you're in a trade

  • New portfolios at year-end, including refreshed versions of the "lazy way" strategies, simple, disciplined, and designed for people who don't want to babysit positions

Why Subscribe Now

If you've been watching from the sidelines, this is your moment. Not because I'm creating false urgency, but because watching me build the 2026 book from scratch, in real time, is how you'll internalize the process. Theory becomes intuition when you see it applied consistently.

The Option Premium isn't for everyone. But if you want to understand how options actually work as income tools, not just speculation, and if you value an approach that respects your capital and your inbox, I'd love to have you inside.

As always, I welcome questions. I read and answer everything.

Andy
Founder and Chief Options Strategist, The Option Premium

📰 Market Commentary: Halloween Didn’t Haunt the Tape

October tried to spook us, hawkish Fed tone, trade headlines, shutdown noise, and big-tech earnings crowding the calendar, but the market mostly yawned and pushed back toward highs. That’s the story inside the tape right now: plenty of reasons to flinch, yet the primary trend keeps grinding forward, led by mega-cap tech while rate-sensitive areas (small caps) wobble when yields pop.

Let’s start with the Fed. They cut again, then essentially said, “Don’t set your watch by December.” That nuance matters. The broad path for policy still tilts lower into 2026, but the timing is data-dependent, not pre-announced. Bonds heard the message and sold off a bit; small caps, which are more sensitive to financing costs, felt the pinch. For options traders, that’s a reminder to separate direction from volatility. The trend can stay intact even as rates jiggle week to week. Trade selection and sizing matter more than trying to nail the exact month of the next cut.

On the geopolitical front, the Trump-Xi meeting took some heat out of the U.S.-China story. Fewer threats, fewer new frictions, a little relief for supply chains, none of this solves global complexity, but it nudges the temperature down. Markets like when worst-case scenarios step back from the ledge, even if only incrementally. That’s supportive for margins into the holidays and, in options terms, takes a bit of tail risk out of the near-term distribution.

The shutdown? The market would love to ignore it forever, but time makes that harder. As disruptions build, the growth drag inches higher and the data vacuum becomes more annoying for everyone who cares about the macro rhythm. If headlines escalate, volatility can pop, less because investors “discover” something new and more because uncertainty compresses planning windows. The trading takeaway isn’t to hide; it’s to pre-decide how you’ll respond if vol spikes: smaller size, farther strikes, faster profit targets. Prepared traders don’t need perfect forecasts, they need playbooks.

Earnings did a lot of heavy lifting. Broadly better-than-feared, with the usual patchwork in mega-cap tech. Some lofty expectations met reality; some names reminded everyone why they command premium multiples. The AI engine is still humming. That doesn’t mean every AI stock goes up every week; it means the spend, the products, and the monetization pipelines remain a real, durable theme, not a story stock fad. From a portfolio standpoint, leadership is still concentrated, which is both a source of strength and a risk if momentum stumbles. That’s where option structure choice becomes your friend.

Big picture, nothing in October broke the trend. It just reminded us that a market can climb while the commentary argues with itself. Could November deliver a shakeout? Sure. Do we need one to keep the longer-term uptrend healthy? Probably. That’s why pullbacks should be planned, not feared. Decide today what “buying the dip” means to you: which tickers you’ll prioritize, how you’ll size them, and what vol/EM thresholds must be in place before you engage. Plans beat opinions.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

Index

Close

Week

YTD

Dow Jones Industrial Average

47,563

+0.8%

+11.8%

S&P 500 Index

6,840

+0.7%

+16.3%

NASDAQ

23,725

+2.2%

+22.9%

MSCI EAFE*

2,803

−0.3%

+23.9%

10-yr Treasury Yield

4.09%

+0.10 pp

+0.20 pp

Oil ($/bbl)

$60.86

−1.0%

−15.1%

Bonds (AGG proxy)

$100.54

−0.6%

+6.8%

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles 

đŸ—“ïž Thursday, October 30th - The Retail Options Trader's Risk Playbook

🧭 The Earnings Playbook

(Educational and idea-generating for all readers)

Here’s the clean map for the week of Nov 3 to 6.

Mon. (11/3) after close: PLTR.

Tues. (11/4) before open: BP, PFE, SHOP, UBER; after close: AMD, CAVA, MARA, SMCI, TOST.

Wed. (11/5) before open: CCJ, MCD, NVO; after close: EOSE, HOOD, QCOM.

Thurs. (11/6) before open: COP; after close: ABNB, AFRM, DKNG. Attention and liquidity should peak

  • Tues. PM (semis + growth) and Thurs. PM (consumer/fintech).

Quick standouts by data: AMD (IVR 60%, IV percentile 93%, ~4.0M OI) is the headliner for clean fills + meaningful premium; PLTR (IV 66.9%, ~3.47M OI) kicks things off Monday. QCOM (Wed PM) offers balanced IV (42%) with solid liquidity, while CCJ (Wed AM, IVR 71%, IV percentile 96%) and NVO (IVR 73%, IV percentile 90%) carry elevated ranks without extreme spreads.

If you’re simply hunting movement, DKNG (IVR 60%, IV percentile 97%), ABNB, and AFRM into Thursday PM fit the bill. High-octane bucket, EOSE (IV 124%), MARA (IV 99%), CAVA (IVR 82%, IV percentile 98%), can gap and run with wider markets; SMCI shows high IV but a low IVR (19%), so the relative vol edge is thinner. Size and distance to strikes matter most this week.

Earnings of Note: Week Starting November 3, 2025

🧭 Earnings Season Options Trade: A Step-by-Step Guide: Explore the in-depth, quantitative approach to the best strikes, probabilities, and setups for earnings trades: learn the mechanics of the high-probability approach.

👉 For detailed frameworks, including delta targets, exit triggers, and trade structuring ideas, join the paid edition: The Implied Perspective. 

⁉ Did You Know?

“Probability of Touch” ≈ 2× the Delta

Most traders anchor to delta as a rough “chance of finishing ITM.” Useful, but incomplete. Price doesn’t move in a straight line, and the probability that price touches your short strike before expiration is roughly twice the option’s absolute delta.

Why it matters

  • Touches are common, not fatal. A 16-delta short call has ~16% chance to finish ITM, but ~32% chance to get tagged intracycle. If you panic at every touch, you’ll over-adjust profitable trades.

  • Plans beat emotions. Knowing touch odds up front lets you pre-decide management: reduce size, roll, or wait for reversion, rather than reacting to noise.

Quick rules of thumb

  • Touch ≈ 2×|Δ|.

    • 10-delta ≈ ~20% chance of a tag.

    • 25-delta ≈ ~50% chance of a tag.

  • EM context. Touch odds jump if your strike sits inside the Expected Move; they fall outside it.

  • Time cuts both ways. More DTE = more paths to a touch and more time to recover.

Use it like a pro

  • Write a “touch playbook.” Before entry, define: If touched, then (trim/roll/convert to spread/hold with stop on underlying).

  • Stagger strikes. Mix 10 to 20 delta shorts so a single swing doesn’t pressure the whole book.

  • Manage winners, not noise. Many tags revert; take profits at 25 to 50% on premium targets and avoid churn.

Bottom line: Delta frames your finish odds; probability of touch frames your journey. Trade the path, not just the destination.

🎓 Options 101: The First Steps to Trading

Emotional Trading: Why Options Amplify Psychology

This week’s Options 101 article explores one of the most overlooked realities of options trading, how leverage, time decay, and volatility amplify emotion. Options don’t just move faster than stocks, they feel faster. Every tick, every theta drip, every volatility swing tests your discipline.

The article walks through the five most common emotional traps options traders fall into , from the pressure of time decay to the panic of gamma and the urge to “get it back” after losses, and shows practical ways to counter them through mechanics, sizing, and prewritten playbooks.

At its core, this piece is about protecting your mental capital as carefully as your financial one. Quiet trading is good trading, and the traders who survive longest are those who stay calm when the market isn’t.

🧠 Mental Capital

Train not just your trading system, but your trading self.

Why Your Trading Strategy Keeps Failing (It’s Not What You Think)

It isn’t your indicators. It isn’t timing. It’s the beliefs underneath your rules. Most strategy failures come from a hidden mismatch between what your system asks you to do and what you actually trust enough to execute.

Inside this week’s piece:

  • The Belief Gap: Why traders abandon good systems after a few losses, cut winners too early, or strategy-hop, the distance between your rules and your real convictions.

  • What you’re really trading: Every setup rests on beliefs (about IV, mean reversion, randomness, risk). If they’re unexamined, you’re trading blind.

  • A 3-step framework to build conviction:

    1. Document your philosophy (edge, risk, predictability, uncertainty tolerance).

    2. Run the alignment audit (your last 20 trades reveal your true beliefs).

    3. Create a pre-trade filter (Does it express your edge? Can you stomach worst case? Will you execute exits?).

  • What changes when you align: Less strategy-hopping, steadier execution through drawdowns, and finally letting probabilities compound.

  • What’s next: Why position sizing, not win rate, is the lever that turns conviction into durable results.

📊 The Implied Truth: Weekly Table Overview

Unlock the Full Picture - Upgrade to access the complete table, including all 100 equities (AAPL, META, AMZN, NVDA and more)

Every number tells a story. Each week, we decode the landscape across the most liquid ETFs, because this is where retail traders get the cleanest signals and the least slippage. But the power isn’t in the data, it’s in how you interpret it.

Below is your edge: a strategic overview that reveals where the premium is overpriced, where price action is exhausted, and where the highest-probability setups exist for the coming week.

This section is here to help you choose what works for your strategy. The numbers are facts, not opinions. Whether you sell premium, buy directional spreads, or trade reversals, the edge begins with understanding volatility and momentum. Let’s dig in.

What This Table Tells Us

  • Use this weekly to guide your trade ideas, not predict outcomes.

  • The data is factual. There’s no opinion in this grid, only opportunity.

  • Choose what aligns with your timeframe, risk appetite, and edge.

Week Ending October 24, 2025

1) The quick market read (plain English)

  • Indexes (SPY, QQQ, DIA, VTI): Momentum looks fine, but option prices are still relatively cheap (low-mid IV Rank ~10-18%). Translation: you’re not getting paid much to sell options here. If you trade them, keep it small and defined-risk (wide iron condors, quick profit targets).

  • Best-paying areas: Uranium and precious metals still offer real premium:

    • URA (IV Rank ~83), GDX (~48), GLD (~43), SLV (~34). This is where income trades make more sense because you’re actually being paid for risk.

  • Select cyclicals: XHB (Homebuilders) has workable premium (IV Rank ~47) with a neutral/slightly weak trend, nice spot for income trades that don’t require a big directional call.

  • Rates/credit: TLT has almost no premium (IV Rank ~0). If you want to bet on a pullback, use small debits, not credits. HYG is quiet too.

2) Where to focus (this week’s best hunting grounds)

A) Uranium & Metals (best overall mix of premium + workable tape)

  • URA - IVR ~83, RSI(14) ~60, ADX steady.

    • What it means: Options are well-priced (rich), trend has some strength.

  • GDX - IVR ~48, RSI(14) below 50, sellers still active (−DI > +DI).

    • What it means: Premium is there; trend is soft.

  • GLD - IVR ~43, steady trend (ADX ~27).

    • What it means: You’re still paid to be neutral.

  • SLV - IVR ~34, RSI(14) ~52 (near neutral), sellers still a bit stronger than buyers.

B) Homebuilders & Cyclicals

  • XHB - IVR ~47, RSI(14) ~39 (below 50), ADX light.

    • What it means: Enough premium, no strong trend.

C) Oil

  • USO - Short-term a bit hot (RSI(2) ~78), IVR ~21 (not huge).

D) Staples/Materials got washed out short-term

  • XLP (RSI(2) ~1.5) and XLB (RSI(2) ~2.1): Very short-term oversold.

    • What it means: Short-term bounce potential.

E) Utilities

  • XLU - IVR ~42 (good premium) but RSI(14) just slipped below 50; ADX ~34 (trend picking up).

F) The big indexes (SPY, QQQ, DIA, VTI)

  • All have low-mid IVR (10 to 18%).

3) VIX in one paragraph

  • VIX ~17.4, low IV Rank, and short-term RSI just got hot.

    • Translation: We could see volatility cool a touch, but a headline can still spike it.

    • What to do: If you’re stacking multiple credit trades or your portfolio is long deltas, consider a small hedge (VIX calls or a tiny SPY put spread), and book winners early.

4) “Just tell me what to place” (simple educational playbook based on the mechanics)

  • Neutral income (best spots): URA, GDX, GLD, SLV, XHB

    • 30 to 60 DTE iron condor

    • 10 to 15 delta short strikes

    • Target: take profits at 35 to 50%

  • Bullish income after a dip: XHB, XLP, XLB

    • 30 to 60 DTE bull put spread

    • 15 to 25 delta short put

    • Target: 35 to 50%

  • Short-term fade of strength: USO (if price is hot)

    • 30 to 60 DTE bear call spread

    • 15 to 20 delta short call

    • Target: 35 to 45%

  • Don’t sell cheap vol: TLT (IVR ~0)

    • If you think bonds pull back: use a small debit put spread instead of selling options.

5) Sizing and risk (the boring stuff that keeps you in the game)

  • Per-trade risk: 0.5 to 5.0% of portfolio (defined risk = max loss).

  • Per “theme” (e.g., metals): cap at ~3% total risk so one theme can’t hurt you.

  • Profit habit: When you’re up 35 to 50%, ring the register and redeploy.

  • Skip low-edge trades: If IVR is thin (indexes, TLT), it’s okay to do nothing.

7) Quick FAQ (free-edition friendly)

  • Why not sell in SPY/QQQ if they’re popular?
    Because thin premium means you take risk without enough payoff. We prefer spots where the market pays us (higher IV Rank).

  • Why “defined-risk”?
    Iron condors and credit spreads cap your downside. That keeps losses reasonable if a headline hits.

  • Why exit early?
    Most of the edge comes from the first chunk of decay after entry. Banking partial gains faster lets you recycle capital and avoid “give-back.”

This week’s bottom line

  • Go where you’re paid: URA, GDX, GLD, SLV, XHB.

  • Be picky with the big indexes: small, wide, quick or skip.

  • Treat washed-out Staples/Materials as light bullish income with fast targets.

  • Avoid selling cheap vol (TLT). Use debits there if you must.

  • Keep trades defined-risk, size small, and take winners early.

Quick Reference

Field

Meaning / How to Use It

Imp. Vol (IV)

Implied volatility. Higher IV = richer option premiums and wider expected moves.

IV Rank (IVR)

Where today’s IV sits vs. the past year (0–100%). Rule of thumb: >35% favors premium-selling strategies.

IV Percentile (IVP)

% of the past year that IV was below today’s level. Confirms whether elevated IV is persistent (not a one-off spike).

RSI (2/5/9/14)

Momentum gauge. >80 = overbought, <20 = oversold. Shorter lookbacks (2/5/9) react faster; 14 is steadier.

ADX (9/14)

Trend strength (0–100). <20 range-bound, 20–25 forming, 25–35 established, >35 strong trend.

👉 For detailed idea generation, explore my curated list of highly liquid ETFs and equities in this week’s issue of The Implied Perspective, where I break down specific trade frameworks/strategies, delta setups, and portfolio integration for premium sellers.

📚 Educational Corner: Options Deep Dive

Limit vs. Market Orders for Options Traders (Stop Bleeding Money on Options Fills)

You can nail direction, timing, and volatility, and still hand back your edge at the point of execution. This week’s guide shows how sloppy market orders quietly drain $6,000+ a year from active traders, and how a 60-second routine with limit and marketable-limit orders puts that money back in your pocket.

What you’ll learn (and use immediately):

  • The 60-Second Framework: default to limit at mid, then walk; use marketable limits when speed matters, never blind markets in wide spreads.

  • The Toll Booth Math: how a “tiny” $0.03 worse fill becomes a $6,000 annual drag, and how to reverse it.

  • Simple, repeatable execution steps: mid → $0.01 to $0.03 walks → cap your worst price → reassess.

  • When markets are fine (and when they’re fatal): ultra-liquid weeklies vs. wide spreads, opens/closes, and multi-leg orders.

  • Pro habits that compound: log slippage, size down in wide spreads, work the net credit/debit on multi-legs.

If you care about your P&L, execution isn’t a detail, it’s the edge. Twenty extra seconds per trade can be worth six figures over a decade.

🔗 Let’s Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I’d love to hear from you.
đŸ“© Email me anytime at [email protected]

đŸ“ș Subscribe on YouTube so you’ll be notified when the first videos are released.
đŸ‘„ Join the private Facebook group or connect with me on X.
💌 Send me your topic requests, whether for the newsletter, YouTube, or webinars. Seriously, send them. 🙂 

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium

Educational use only. The Option Premium is a publication for educational purposes and does not provide personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.

Reply

or to participate.