THE OPTION PREMIUM

The Supreme Court Changed the Rules. We Don't Care. Here's Why.

Weekly Options Intelligence | February 22, 2026

Before We Get to the Markets: Thank You

I want to be upfront about something before we get to the markets.

In a space full of bold promises and inflated track records, the only thing that actually differentiates one service from another is trust. You either earn it or you don't. There's no shortcut. These are testimonials from paid subscribers, and I share them for one reason: I'd rather let the people doing the work speak for what we're building here than pitch you on it myself. A few from recent weeks:

These are just a handful. I've shared dozens more on the site over the past year, and I read every single one that comes in. And the returns are just a byproduct. What I’m teaching is a structure, an approach, a way of thinking about risk and income that investors and traders can use for the rest of their lives.

I don't take any of this for granted. What started as one professional trader's obsession with teaching options the right way after 24+ years in the business is turning into something I never expected. And that's because of you.

Alright, let's get to it.

Andy Crowder

Founder and Chief Options Strategist, The Option Premium

🎓 Coming Soon: PMCC Mastery

PMCC Mastery covers everything: LEAPS selection, short call management, the roll decisions that separate sustainable income from frustrating losses. This isn't a strategy overview. It's a complete implementation system with clear rules, real examples, and the decision frameworks I use every week in our live portfolios.

You won't be left alone with a PDF. Every student joins the dedicated PMCC community forum for questions, real-time discussion, and accountability to a process that works.

Following PMCC Mastery:

• Credit Spreads: The Probability Player's Edge

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Want early access? Reply to this email with "PMCC" in the subject line to [email protected]. I'll make sure you're first in line.

📰 What Actually Happened This Week (And Why It Matters for Us)

Headlines were loud this week. Let's skip the noise and talk about what the numbers actually tell us.

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's IEEPA tariffs in a 6-3 ruling. Markets surged. Then Trump countered within hours with a new 10% global tariff under a different legal framework. Classic whipsaw. But here's what matters: the VIX dropped over 5% on Friday alone. That's a measurable vol compression event. If you had 30-60 DTE credit spreads or iron condors on before the ruling, the probability math just moved in your favor. If you chased the headline, you bought high and sold low. The math doesn't reward reactive trading. It rewards positioning.

PCE inflation came in at 0.4% month-over-month, above expectations. Core PCE stuck at 3.0% YoY. The probability of a June rate cut collapsed from 85% to 57% in a single week. That's a 28-percentage-point repricing in seven days. For us, this matters because higher-for-longer rates keep IV elevated in rate-sensitive sectors, which means richer credits on our spreads and better strike selection on cash-secured puts.

GDP printed 1.4% against a 3.0% consensus. Mostly the government shutdown. But sub-2% growth plus 3% inflation starts to shift the probability distribution toward stagflationary outcomes. We're not pricing that in yet. The market is watching.

Gold above $5,080. Silver up roughly 300% in a year. Oil at $66.39. Five of the six richest-premium ETFs in our Implied Truth table are commodities. That's not a narrative. That's a statistical concentration of risk premium in one sector cluster. The math is telling us exactly where to deploy.

The key number: VIX at 19.09, below its long-term average. Index vol is statistically cheap. Sector vol is statistically rich. That divergence is the entire setup this week. You don't sell premium where the math doesn't pay you. You go where the probabilities are highest.

📅 The Week Ahead

Between NVIDIA's earnings, critical economic data, and over 400 companies reporting, premium sellers have plenty to navigate.

NVIDIA is the quarter's biggest binary event. Wall Street expects $65.7 billion in revenue and $1.53 EPS. Implied vol will collapse Thursday morning regardless of direction. That vol crush is a near-certainty. If you're running PMCCs in semiconductors, this is a management moment, not an entry point. Home Depot Tuesday is worth watching for anyone running wheel strategies on retail names: up 10% YTD with housing data bookending the week.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

📚 Educational Corner: Your Volatility Filter Might Be Lying to You

Everything we do rests on one statistically proven reality: implied volatility overstates realized volatility approximately 80-85% of the time. Across decades. Across markets. This isn't a theory. It's a measurable, persistent market inefficiency. Options buyers pay for insurance, and insurance is structurally overpriced relative to the actual probability of the insured event. That excess premium flows to sellers. To us. Understanding this transforms what we do from "a strategy that seems to work" to a quantifiable edge with decades of academic evidence behind it. The article also covers the 15-20% of the time when the edge inverts (real crises), and why position sizing and defined risk are the statistical tools that keep you solvent through those periods.

👉 Read the full breakdown: IVR vs. IV Percentile: Which One Actually Matters for Selling Premium?

🧠 Mental Capital: Expectancy, the Number That Actually Matters

Run this math: a 75% win rate with $150 average wins and $600 average losses produces an expectancy of negative $37.50 per trade. A 40% win rate with $500 average wins and $200 average losses produces positive $80.00 per trade. Over 100 trades, that's a $12,000 difference. Win rate is a vanity metric. Expectancy is the only number that tells you whether your system actually makes money over a statistically meaningful sample. If you haven't calculated it across your last 50 trades, you're flying without instruments.

👉 Read the full article: Expectancy: The Single Number That Predicts Your Trading Success

🎓 Options 101: How to Trade a Bull Put Spread for Income in 6 Simple Steps

The bull put spread is one of our core defined-risk structures. Sell a put, buy protection below it, collect a credit, and know your max loss before you enter. The probability framework: a $5 wide spread collecting $1.50 in credit gives you a 70%+ probability of profit at entry, a 2.3:1 risk/reward ratio, and a break-even that sits below both current price and the short strike. The guide walks through strike selection using delta as a probability proxy, and the management rules that improve your long-term expectancy: taking profits at 50% of max, the 21 DTE inflection point where gamma risk accelerates, and cutting losers before they reach max loss.

👉 Read the full guide: How to Trade a Bull Put Spread for Income in 6 Simple Steps

📊 The Implied Truth

The Weekly ETF Volatility and Trend Intelligence Report

Want the full 100+ equity breakdown and trade frameworks? Upgrade at The Implied Perspective.

Where You're Being Paid (IV Rank > 50%)

Five of six are commodities. That's where the uncertainty lives, and uncertainty is what we get paid to absorb. How to play it: Iron condors (30-60 DTE), credit spreads with a directional lean, cash-secured puts where you'd accept assignment, PMCCs where trend supports it.

Respect the Trend

When ADX is above 44, institutional money is driving the move. These are PMCC candidates where you keep short calls conservative. Don't sell naked calls against these trends. When IV is cheap but the trend is strong (XLP, XLU), that's where debit spreads and deep ITM LEAPS make more sense than selling premium.

The Cheap Vol Trap

SPY, DIA, XLP, and XLF all have IV Rank under 17%. A $0.40 credit on a $5 spread is 11.5:1 risk/reward, requiring a 92% win rate. Nobody wins 92% reliably. When IV is this low, we flip the script: debit spreads become mathematically favored. Deep ITM LEAPS for new PMCC positions. Cash-secured puts on quality names where you'd happily take assignment at these prices. The market isn't paying us to sell premium here, so we don't.

Breadth Is Fading

$MMFI at 56.43, $MMTH at 60.54. Both above 50 but with deteriorating momentum. The rally is narrowing. For us, that means sector selection matters more than ever, and the commodity cluster's elevated vol is even more attractive relative to compressed index vol.

This Week's Framework

Where IV is rich (commodities): Iron condors, credit spreads, and cash-secured puts in the 30-60 DTE window.

Where trends are strong but IV is thin (XLI, XLE, XLP): PMCCs with conservative short calls, debit spreads, or new LEAPS positions.

Where IV is compressed (indexes, financials): Debit spreads if you have a directional view. Otherwise, deploy capital elsewhere.

Quality names pulling back: Cash-secured puts at prices you'd gladly pay. Let the market come to you.

👉 For specific trade frameworks, delta setups, and the full 100+ equity breakdown, read this week's Implied Perspective at theoptionpremium.com

The Bottom Line

The Supreme Court, tariff whiplash, sticky inflation, weak GDP. The market absorbed all of it and finished higher. The rotation underneath tells the real story: value over growth, commodities over tech, gold above $5,000, oil at 2026 highs, breadth narrowing.

For us, the playbook is clear. Sell credit spreads and iron condors where IV is elevated. Build positions through cash-secured puts on names you want to own. Keep rolling your PMCCs. And where IV is thin, use debit spreads or simply be patient. The edge doesn't disappear. It moves. Our job is to follow it.

NVIDIA Wednesday is the week's defining event. Manage if you're in. Don't force if you're not.

The markets will still be here when the dust settles. Your job is to make sure your capital is too.

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Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium

The Option Premium is published for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.