Before We Get Started…

Most options newsletters sell hype. I’m building this one around process. This isn’t a “call the top/bottom” newsletter. It’s a premium-selling playbook built for the real world.

That’s the mission. And what’s surprised me most since going independent hasn’t been the freedom, it’s hearing from you.

The last few weeks have been humbling in a way I didn't expect. The testimonials keep coming, and each one reminds me why I'm doing this.

A few recent notes that I don’t take for granted:

Just wanted to drop you a note to let you know how much I appreciate your weekly write-ups and trade alerts. I’ve belonged to various stock and option services over the years and none of them come close to your detailed explanations of the trade set-up and the reason why they’re structured that way. Then there’s the “weekly in depth articles” and all the educational articles addressing different elements of option trading. And all of that at reasonable prices. Looking forward to your next trade alerts. - Bernie 

"I just want you to know how insanely valuable I feel this service is. It's truly, almost to good to be true, and the knowledge you share is humbling…anyway, even if I felt I knew what I was doing in 10 years...I hope you do this for as long as you can....I will always be a paying member as I feel this to be way too valuable to let go of and want to support your business and passion for sharing." - Matt

"I want to thank you for the knowledge and experience that you are sharing with us. I am enjoying the success and profits!!! I love the lazy river feel for this type of trading. Thank you again" - Jerry

"Let me start by saying thank you! You’ve truly built a great product that works both for people starting from scratch and for more experienced traders. I discovered your website a few weeks ago, and I’ve already spent several hours reading through various articles. There’s still a lot more for me to explore, and my next step might very well be a paid subscription." - Guy

"I jumped in on most trades… closed the year up $7,920 in two months." - Patrick (his experience; yours will vary)

"Finally someone who treats me like an adult instead of a mark." - David

"The transparency around what doesn't work is more valuable than the trades that do. You showed me a losing trade, explained why it happened, and how the position sizing kept it from mattering. That's when I knew this was different." - Sarah

"Been trading options for 15 years. Wish I'd found this approach on day one." - Michael

"Not flashy. Not hyped. Just systematic and honest. Exactly what I needed." - Evan

"I've subscribed to seven different options services over the years. Cancelled six of them. Kept yours." - Robert

"What got me was the 'why' behind every trade. Not just 'do this', but here's the setup, the Greeks, the risk, the exit plan. I'm actually learning, not just copying." - Jennifer

I'm not sharing these to brag. I'm sharing them because they're humbling, and because they confirm something I've believed for years: most traders don't need more noise. They need structure, probability, risk management, from someone who respects their intelligence.

That's what we're building here:

Clear frameworks. Honest expectations. Disciplined sizing. A community that values process over performance theater.

I can proudly say that the growth of The Option Premium, and the paid services, has been all organic…word-of-mouth from people who found something useful and told someone else…an individual, group, or trading community…and I’m incredibly proud of that fact.

If this has helped you, consider sharing it with one person or group (Facebook, Reddit, X, LinkedIn, Discord, etc.) where it might cut through the noise. That's how we grow, one trader at a time, not one marketing funnel at a time.

As always, thank you for being part of it. Thank you for the trust. Thank you for the push to keep raising the standard.

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📰 Market Commentary & Snapshot

This was a “the indexes held together, but the opportunity moved somewhere else” kind of week.

The broad tape is still basically fine, but the market is paying you very differently depending on where you’re fishing.

Index premium is still relatively thin (SPY/DIA/QQQ IV Rank remains low), while real premium has migrated into specific pockets, especially metals, miners, and uranium. That matters because most traders keep forcing the same trades in the same tickers every week…even when the best edge has rotated.

The simple read: the market isn’t broken, but it’s not handing out easy premium either. This is exactly where disciplined premium-selling works best if you stop selling what’s cheap and start focusing on what’s actually paying.

What moved (and why we care)

1) Metals/miners are the paid trade, and they’re crowded.
GLD, SLV, and GDX are screaming: elevated IV Rank, elevated RSI, and strong ADX. Translation: you’re getting paid, because the market expects movement. That’s great for premium sellers, but it punishes tight strikes.

Options takeaway: If you sell premium here, the product you’re selling is room to be wrong. Go wider, go smaller, and take profits faster than your ego wants.

2) Uranium remains “paid + trend,” which is both opportunity and danger.
URA has a “real trend + real premium” look. That combination can work beautifully for defined-risk structures, and it can also tempt traders into selling puts too close because the credit looks juicy.

Options takeaway: In paid + trend names, don’t sell “closer.” Sell farther and structure it (wide spreads/condors > tight, brave strikes).

3) Indexes are still calm…which means the price of insurance is cheap.
SPY/DIA/QQQ are not paying you like fear markets. The tape can still move, but the price of insurance is cheap.

Options takeaway: If premium is skinny, your edge comes from structure, not aggression: defined risk, wider wings, smaller size, quicker exits.

What it means for readers of The Option Premium

Index income (SPY / QQQ / DIA / IWM):
This is not the week to get cute. I’d rather collect boring credits with room to breathe than squeeze premium near the money and spend the week managing stress. Defined-risk spreads and conservative iron condors still make the most sense.

Wheel / cash-secured puts:
Same rule as always: if assignment would annoy you, don’t sell the put. Premium can look “great” right up until you’re staring at 100 shares you never wanted.

PMCC / LEAPS:
If you’re building long delta, do it in layers. You don’t need to nail the exact bottom or top. Ladder in, keep deltas intentional, and let the short calls do the steady work.

Looking Ahead: The Week’s Macro Risk

This week has two volatility magnets:

• The FOMC meeting (Jan 27-28) with the press conference on Jan 28.

• A major earnings wave (Jan 26-30) with multiple market-moving mega-caps and high-profile reports.

Practical takeaway: If you sell premium this week, act like you might get a fast move when you least want one. That means farther strikes, smaller size, defined-risk, quicker exits.

📊 Weekly Market Stats (Week Ending Jan. 23, 2026)

*MSCI EAFE stats proxied using EFA.

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles 

🗓️ Tuesday, December 20th - Warren Buffett's Quiet Options Strategy: Lessons for Income Investors

🗓️ Thursday, December 22nd - The Cash-Secured Put: Your First Real Options Trade

🎓 Options 101: The First Steps to Trading

Most traders think options profits come from predicting direction.

The pros I know (and the only ones who survive long-term) do something simpler: they structure trades so they can be wrong about direction and still make money, because they’re trading probability, time, and risk-defined outcomes, not “being right.”

This week’s Options 101 breaks down why buying options is such a brutal game (you must be right, fast enough, and by enough), and why selling premium flips the math, as long as you respect the two non-negotiables:

• Defined risk when the market can punch you

• Position sizing so one loser doesn’t hijack your month

It’s not about winning every trade. It’s about building a process where the market has to do something unusual for you to lose, and even then, the loss is survivable.

👉 Read the full article: You Don’t Need to Be Right to Win

🧠 Mental Capital

Train not just your trading system, but your trading self.

Most traders don’t lack strategies, they lack a risk policy.

This week’s Mental Capital piece explains the core truth academic work keeps reinforcing: options can reshape risk, but you never erase it. You’re always paying in one of three currencies:

• carry cost (hedges bleed)

• capped upside (collars)

• tail exposure (premium selling’s losses cluster)

The solution isn’t clever hedging. It’s a rules-based overlay you can run in calm markets and ugly markets, without changing who you are every time volatility wakes up.

We walk through a practical toolkit (put spreads, collars, credit-spread “brakes,” volatility hedges) and the single rule that makes it all work: your hedge has to be sustainable enough to stay on.

👉 Read the full article: Risk Management With Options

📊 The Implied Truth: Weekly Table Overview

Unlock the Full Picture - Upgrade to access the complete table, including all 100 equities (AAPL, META, AMZN, NVDA and more)

Every number tells a story. Each week, we decode the landscape across the most liquid ETFs, because this is where retail traders get the cleanest signals and the least slippage. But the power isn’t in the data, it’s in how you interpret it.

Below is your edge: a strategic overview that reveals where the premium is overpriced, where price action is exhausted, and where the highest-probability setups exist for the coming week.

This section is here to help you choose what works for your strategy. The numbers are facts, not opinions. Whether you sell premium, buy directional spreads, or trade reversals, the edge begins with understanding volatility and momentum. Let’s dig in.

What This Table Tells Us

• Use this weekly to guide your trade ideas, not predict outcomes.

• The data is factual. There’s no opinion in this grid, only opportunity.

• Choose what aligns with your timeframe, risk appetite, and edge.

This Week's Clean Read

Index premium is still skinny, SPY, DIA, QQQ, VTI all sitting in single digits to low teens on IV Rank. The paid trade is concentrated in precious metals and uranium: GLD, SLV, GDX, URA. Strong trends, expensive options, crowded positioning.

This isn't a "sell everything" environment. It's a "sell the right things, the right way" environment.

And here's what I'm watching most this week: sometimes the best premium opportunities don't make the best trading opportunities.

When things get this stretched, high IV ranks, extended RSI readings, everyone leaning the same direction, the credit looks attractive. But stretched trends snap back. They don't ask permission. They don't give you time to adjust.

This Week's Playbook

The setups I'm tracking and how I'm thinking about them.

1) Paid + Strong Trend (great premium...questionable risk)

These are paying well. The trend is real. The premium is fat.

And that's exactly why I'm being careful with them.

Top pockets:

• GLD - IV Rank 86.48 | IVP 98 | RSI Rank new high above 80 | ADX strong

• SLV - IV Rank 90.99 | IVP 98 | RSI Rank above 70 | ADX very strong

• GDX - IV Rank 80.62 | IVP 99 | RSI Rank above 70 | ADX strong

• URA - IV Rank 62.89 | IVP 69 | RSI Rank above 70 | ADX very strong

What I'm seeing:

When IV rank is in the 80s and 90s, when RSI is pegged above 90, when everyone sees the same trade, we're not early. We're late. And late in a stretched trend is where premium sellers historically get run over.

How I'm approaching them:

Wide, defined-risk structures when I trade them. Iron condors with room to breathe. Put spreads, not naked puts.

When I'm selling puts here: strikes farther out-of-the-money than the credit suggests I need. Size smaller than my conviction level. These can drop 5 to 10% in a session when positioning unwinds.

I'm taking profits faster on these, 25 to 30% gains, not waiting for 50%. When everyone's selling the same strikes, I don't want to be the last one trying to exit.

The pattern I've noticed: when I'm thinking "I'll just go a little closer for more credit," that's usually my signal to either go wider or wait.

The question I'm asking myself: Do I need to trade the most obvious setup, or can I wait for a better entry after some of this froth comes out?

2) Paid "Normal" (cleaner risk profile than the stretched setups)

Decent premium. Workable momentum. Less extension risk than the metals complex.

What I'm tracking:

• USO - IV Rank 52.16 | IVP 95 | trend active

• XOP - IV Rank 14.09 | IVP 59 | strong trend behavior

• EFA - IV Rank 26.62 | IVP 80 | steadier strength

• XHB - IV Rank 44.85 | trend improving with IV support

My approach:

Spreads and condors when I want defined risk. Naked puts only when I'm genuinely comfortable owning shares at my strike.

I'm prioritizing profit targets over strike perfection here. Taking my 25 to 50% and moving on.

These aren't paying as much as GLD or SLV, but they're not as stretched either. The "good enough premium with better risk" setup often outperforms the "great premium with terrible risk" setup in my experience.

3) "Paid Discomfort" (where I've historically found edge)

Not panic. Not euphoria. Just enough tension that options pricing doesn't match what I'm seeing in the actual risk.

What's on my radar:

• XRT - IV Rank 25.23 | IVP 22 | improving posture

• XBI - IV Rank 16.13 | IVP 31 | stabilizing with option premium

• KRE - IV Rank 10.12 | IVP 23 | not rich, but workable if selective

How I'm trading them:

Defined-risk put spreads over naked puts. These can drift lower before they stabilize, so I'm using protection. I'm scaling entries after I see some stabilization, even small momentum improvement changes the probability picture. Keeping size smaller and strikes wider if I'm early. Letting the setup prove itself before adding.

Where I'm Staying Light

Indexes: Trend is fine. Premium is not.

• SPY IV Rank 8.53

• DIA IV Rank 9.62

• QQQ IV Rank 11.85

• VTI IV Rank 5.67

The market is "fine," but insurance is cheap. I'm not interested in being the insurer standing too close to spot when I'm not getting paid for it. When I do sell index premium: smaller size, farther strikes, defined-risk structures, faster exits.

What I'm Seeing This Week

Primary trend: still up, still tradable.

Highest premium: GLD, SLV, GDX, URA, but these are also the most stretched. High premium doesn't equal good trade when positioning looks like this.

Better risk/reward in my view: USO, EFA, XHB, cleaner technical setup, less extension, still paying reasonably.

What I'm remembering this week: When premium is concentrated and trends are stretched, my edge has come from patience and discipline, not chasing the fattest credit. Sometimes the best trade is the one I don't make.

👉 For a deeper dive each week, including a full breakdown of the most liquid optionable ETFs and an in-depth analysis of 100+ highly liquid equities, check out The Implied Perspective, our paid service that turns this data into structured, high-probability premium ideas.

As always, this section is meant to be an educational lens on the current landscape, not personal advice. The edge comes from matching the strategy to the regime, keeping position sizes small, and letting a large sample of disciplined trades do the heavy lifting over time.

Quick Reference

📚 Educational Corner: Options Deep Dive

How professional options sellers think about risk (and why most traders get “surprised” by normal price movement).

Most traders treat probability like a single number, pick a strike, see “80%,” hope it works.

Professionals stack probabilities the way pilots read instruments:

• Expected Move = the market’s priced range

• Delta = your exposure dial and a probability proxy

• Prob. OTM = odds you finish clean

• Prob. Touch = odds you’ll feel heat mid-trade

When you understand how those four layers interact, you stop treating trades like guesses and start treating them like structured bets with known pressure points.

👉 Read the full article: The Probability Stack: How Professional Options Sellers Think About Risk

⁉️ Did You Know?

RSI(2) isn't a trend indicator. It's a "stretch" indicator.

RSI(14) is the steady heartbeat. RSI(2) is the flinch. When RSI(2) goes extreme, it signals short-term exhaustion, not a long-term top or bottom. Premium sellers can use it to avoid the classic mistake: selling puts into a short-term free-fall or selling calls into a short-term melt-up. One clean framework: Use RSI(14) to understand the regime. Use RSI(2) to avoid bad timing inside that regime.

But there's more to the story. The four relative strength windows, 2D, 5D, 9D, and 14D, don't exist in isolation. They interact. Think of it like this: 2D is the immediate reaction (panic or euphoria), 5D is the week's sentiment, 9D is the rhythm establishing itself, and 14D is the underlying current. When they're all aligned, all high or all low, you're seeing consensus across timeframes. When they diverge, you're seeing tension.

That tension shows up in the gaps. When the 2D is 20+ points above the 14D, the short-term has run away from the intermediate term. That gap represents stored energy that usually resolves. Take recent examples: URA with a 23-point gap (2D at 96.78, 14D at 73.54), or XOP with a 29-point gap. These are sprints on top of runs, unsustainable momentum that creates both opportunity and potential risk for premium sellers.

The best setup? Moderate 2D stretch (70-85 range), reasonable 14D momentum (55-70 range), a gap of 10 to 20 points, and decent IV rank. That's where short-term tension meets intermediate-term support, where timing matters, premium is decent, and risk/reward makes sense.

The worst setup? Either extreme readings across all timeframes with massive gaps (selling insurance when the house is on fire), or everything subdued and converged (no energy in the system to monetize).

When all four RSI windows are elevated and gapping wide, option premium is rich, but it's rich for a reason. When all four windows are low and converged, option premium is cheap, but it's cheap for a reason. The tradeable zone lives in between, where short-term readings are stretched but intermediate readings are workable.

Per a reader's request, I'll be writing a full article about this topic in next week's issue, breaking down the patterns in detail, showing more real examples from current markets, explaining how ADX layers into the analysis, and walking through exactly what these timeframe interactions mean for the premium you're collecting and the risk you're taking.

I’ll be going even deeper on this topic, and a lot more topics, in the courses I’m currently building, which should be out in February. Stay tuned!

🔗 Let’s Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I’d love to hear from you.
📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

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Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium

Educational use only. The Option Premium is a publication for educational purposes and does not provide personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.