Before We Get Started…

After a few weeks of “best of” content and year-end prep, we’re back to our normal format for The Option Premium, thank you for sticking with me through the holiday stretch. I genuinely appreciate you being here.

And as always, if there’s ever a topic you want me to cover, or a question you think would help the group, just reply and tell me. I’m happy to extend the discussion and build issues around what you actually want to learn.

A quick, straight-forward update on Wealth Without Shares (and what we’re building for 2026)

Wealth Without Shares is our capital-efficient portfolio service built around stock replacement strategies, primarily Poor Man’s Covered Calls (PMCCs). The goal is simple:

• Get long exposure with a deep-in-the-money LEAPS call (instead of tying up full share capital)

• Sell short-term calls against it to generate income, reduce basis, and create a repeatable process

• Keep the structure liquid, risk-aware, and built for real-world portfolio management

What we’re doing right now is building out five distinct portfolios for 2026, so members can choose the approach that matches their temperament and time commitment:

• Two “lazy” portfolios (simpler management, fewer decisions, steadier cadence)

• Two active portfolios (more adjustments, more opportunities, tighter process)

• One middle-ground portfolio (active when needed, quiet when conditions don’t pay)

And this week, we’re building out the All-Weather portfolio, the version designed to hold up better across different regimes by diversifying exposure and strategy structure rather than just owning more tickers that behave the same way. And it’s still not too late to catch up to the Small Dogs positions.

If you want to follow along from the beginning as the 2026 portfolios are being built, and see the framework take shape in real time, this is a perfect week to join.

📺 Subscribe to the YouTube channel so you’re first in line when the initial videos go live.
👥 Join the private Facebook group or connect with me over on X.
💌 Email me anytime with topics you’d like to see covered in the newsletter, on YouTube, or in future webinars.

📰 Market Commentary & Snapshot

This was a “new highs, but not euphoric” kind of week.

The big headline is simple: large caps kept grinding higher, and small caps led. Stocks pushed to fresh records after a mixed jobs report, soft enough to keep rate-cut hopes alive, but not so weak it screams recession.

That combination matters for us because it’s exactly how you get index prices rising while volatility stays “alive enough” to pay premium sellers. In other words: the market can be strong without becoming a straight-line melt-up, and that’s where structured options income strategies tend to shine.

What moved (and why it matters to options traders)

1) Small caps did the heavy lifting.
Small caps led on the week and early-year performance, which fits the rotation we’ve been watching: money moving beyond mega-cap tech into more rate-sensitive, domestically focused names.

Options takeaway: When small caps lead, dispersion tends to rise. That’s good for stock selection and defined-risk income trades because you can find better volatility pockets without forcing trades in the same crowded names.

2) Rates stayed contained.
The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week basically flat around 4.18%. That’s the bond market saying “no recession panic,” but also “no clean runway for aggressive cuts.”

Options takeaway: This keeps us in the “structure edge” zone. Iron condors, credit spreads, and call overlays can work, but the market is still sensitive to inflation prints and growth surprises.

3) Oil perked up.
WTI pushed higher on the week. That can matter more than people think because oil feeds inflation expectations and shifts leadership under the surface.

Options takeaway: Rising oil doesn’t kill premium-selling, it just reinforces the need to stay defined-risk around data and avoid sizing that assumes calm is guaranteed.

What It Means for Readers of The Option Premium

The playbook still looks like this

Index income (SPY / QQQ / DIA / IWM):
Keep leaning on defined-risk spreads and iron condors where the expected move gives you room. In a market near highs, I’d rather be “boring and consistent” than cute and aggressive.

Wheel / cash-secured puts:
The best trades are still the ones where assignment is a non-event. If you’re stretching to make the premium look good, you’re usually just buying future regret.

PMCC / LEAPS:
This is an environment where laddering matters. Add exposure in layers, keep deltas intentional, and don’t let “new highs” trick you into over-sizing your long delta.

Looking Ahead: The Week’s Macro Risk

We’re walking into a week the market will care about:

• CPI (Tuesday)

• PPI + Retail Sales (Wednesday)

• Earnings season beginning (banks start reporting)

Practical takeaway: If you sell premium this week, give yourself extra width (farther strikes / lower deltas) or stick to structures that can survive a CPI-sized one-day move without forcing a rushed adjustment.

📊 Weekly Market Stats (Week Ending Jan. 9, 2026)

*MSCI EAFE stats are proxied using EFA (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF), which closely tracks the index.

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles 

🗓️ Tuesday, December 6th - Using Expected Move the Right Way: A Simple (And Essential) Tool That Quietly Improves Every Options Trade

🗓️ Thursday, December 8th - LEAPS and Correlation: Don't Build Five Positions That Are Really One Trade

🎓 Options 101: The First Steps to Trading

Options 101: Delta and Theta, The Two Numbers That Quietly Control Most Options Trades

Most traders stare at charts. The consistent ones stare at the terms of the bet.

In this week’s Options 101, I break down the two numbers that quietly control most trades: delta and theta. Delta isn’t a “direction indicator”, it’s your exposure dial (and a rough probability map). Theta isn’t just “time decay”, it’s the rent you’re being paid (or charged) for holding the position another day.

I also show how to pair delta + expected move into a simple, repeatable workflow for strike selection, profit-taking, and defining what “wrong” looks like before you enter the trade, the part most people skip and later call “bad luck.”

If you want fewer opinions and a cleaner process you can actually reuse, the full article is worth your time.

👉 Read the full article here → Delta and Theta, The Two Numbers That Quietly Control Most Options Trades

🧠 Mental Capital

Train not just your trading system, but your trading self.

The "Risk Budget" That Keeps Pros Alive (And Stops Premium Sellers From Overtrading)

Most premium sellers don’t blow up from one “stupid” trade. They blow up from a dozen reasonable ones stacked together until the portfolio quietly becomes one giant bet.

In this piece, I walk through the pro framework that prevents that: a risk budget. Not a money budget, a pre-set limit on how much portfolio pain you’re allowed to carry before you stop adding trades and start reducing exposure.

You’ll see why “defined risk” trades can still create dangerous portfolios (correlation, short vega, negative gamma), how to think in portfolio heat (worst-case risk), and how pros use simple guardrails like max risk per position and max risk per correlated cluster to stop overtrading. The key rule is the one retail traders hate: if you’re already at max portfolio risk, you don’t add new trades, no matter how good they look.

👉 Read the full article at The Option Premium

📊 The Implied Truth: Weekly Table Overview

Unlock the Full Picture - Upgrade to access the complete table, including all 100 equities (AAPL, META, AMZN, NVDA and more)

Every number tells a story. Each week, we decode the landscape across the most liquid ETFs, because this is where retail traders get the cleanest signals and the least slippage. But the power isn’t in the data, it’s in how you interpret it.

Below is your edge: a strategic overview that reveals where the premium is overpriced, where price action is exhausted, and where the highest-probability setups exist for the coming week.

This section is here to help you choose what works for your strategy. The numbers are facts, not opinions. Whether you sell premium, buy directional spreads, or trade reversals, the edge begins with understanding volatility and momentum. Let’s dig in.

What This Table Tells Us

• Use this weekly to guide your trade ideas, not predict outcomes.

• The data is factual. There’s no opinion in this grid, only opportunity.

• Choose what aligns with your timeframe, risk appetite, and edge.

The Broad Picture, Trend Up, Short-Term Heat High

The major indexes still look healthy on the intermediate trend (RSI(14) above 50 in SPY, QQQ, DIA, VTI, RSP). But the market is short-term stretched:

• SPY RSI(2) 88.7

• VTI RSI(2) 89.2

• QQQ RSI(2) 79.3

• DIA RSI(2) 79.9

At the same time, index premium is thin (very low IV Rank in SPY/DIA/VTI). That’s the classic trap: overbought tape + low pay = selling puts too close becomes a bad bargain.

Best posture this week: smaller size, farther strikes, defined-risk spreads, take profits faster.

Where Premium Sellers Should Be Looking

1) Premium-rich “crowded trades” (great credit, but don’t be aggressive)

These are paying…and they’re extended.

• SLV: IV Rank 81 / IVP 98, strong trend (ADX 43/42)

• GDX: IV Rank 60 / IVP 91, hot short-term momentum

• GLD: IV Rank 52 / IVP 88, trend strong (ADX 29/27)

• XLB: IVP 93, RSI(14) 71.8 (overbought)

• URA: IV Rank 62 / IVP 72, strong momentum

How to trade it (without getting cute):

• Prefer neutral, defined-risk (wide iron condors / wide structures)

• If selling puts: farther OTM + smaller size

• Take profits quickly

• Don’t chase, crowded moves reverse fast

2) “Paid discomfort” setups (often the best risk/reward for sellers)

Not as euphoric, still pays decent premium.

• FXI: IV Rank 49 / IVP 92, RSI(2) cooler (35) while RSI(14) still 52

• XLV: IV Rank 27 / IVP 80, RSI(2) 32.9 with RSI(14) 58.1

• XBI: IV Rank 30 / IVP 80, RSI(14) 56.4 (define risk)

How to trade it:

• Defined-risk put spreads > naked puts

• Scale in only after stabilization (even a small RSI(5) turn helps)

Where Premium Sellers Should Be Careful

Overbought indexes + weak premium (the “death by a thousand cuts” zone)

• SPY: IV Rank 4% with RSI(2) 88.7

• DIA: IV Rank 5% with RSI(2) 79.9

• VTI: IV Rank 4.6% with RSI(2) 89.2

• QQQ: IV Rank 7.9% with RSI(2) 79.3

Translation: You’re not getting paid enough to sell strikes close to price. If you want to sell premium here, keep it conservative: farther strikes + defined risk + fast exits.

VIX & Market Volatility, Compressed, Not Gone

• VIX 14.49

• IV Percentile 91

• RSI(2) 18.8 (very oversold)

This doesn’t scream “crash.” It screams: don’t oversize short premium, because pops happen from these levels.

Hidden Edge, Two Notes Worth Respecting

• IBIT: IV still elevated (40.6%) but RSI(14) is 49 (new below 50)
  Treat as choppy regime: defined-risk only, smaller, patient.

• HYG: RSI(2) 94.4 but essentially no premium (IV Rank ~0)
  Not a great “get paid to be wrong” market right now.

Final Signals From The Implied Truth

• Indexes: trend intact, but short-term overbought + low premium = don’t sell close strikes.

• Best premium pockets: metals/miners/materials—but crowded, so stay neutral/defined-risk and take profits quicker.

• Best “sell premium with discipline” setups: FXI / XLV / XBI (premium + less euphoric structure).

• Risk rule of the week: if you feel tempted to “push it” for a little more credit, that’s your signal to go smaller and wider instead.

👉 For a deeper dive each week, including a full breakdown of the most liquid optionable ETFs and an in-depth analysis of 100+ highly liquid equities, check out The Implied Perspective, our paid service that turns this data into structured, high-probability premium ideas.

As always, this section is meant to be an educational lens on the current landscape, not personal advice. The edge comes from matching the strategy to the regime, keeping position sizes small, and letting a large sample of disciplined trades do the heavy lifting over time.

Quick Reference

📚 Educational Corner: Options Deep Dive

Most investors “diversify” by buying a pile of ETFs…then get the same unpleasant surprise in the next stress event: correlations spike and everything moves together anyway.

In this article, I show how to build a portfolio-first PMCC framework using an All-Weather backbone, not as a magic shield against correlation, but as a smarter way to structure exposure across different return drivers while keeping capital efficiency and cash reserves working for you.

You’ll see the practical template I use (deep ITM LEAPS as the core + a 30–60 DTE short call as the income layer), the non-negotiable ETF filters (real sleeve, liquid options, true LEAPS), and a full worked example using GLD with current pricing. The big idea is simple: PMCCs aren’t just a trade, they’re a building block that gives you room to diversify across sleeves like SPY, TLT, EFA, and GLD, manage risk honestly, and track basis reduction like an operator instead of guessing.

👉 If you’ve been thinking “I want a PMCC portfolio that can survive more than one market regime,” this is the blueprint. Click through to read the full article here.

⁉️ Did You Know?

IV Rank and IV Percentile can disagree, and when they do, it’s usually telling you something important.

Most traders treat IV Rank and IV Percentile like interchangeable “high or low IV” gauges. They’re not. And the weeks where they don’t match are often the weeks where premium sellers get tripped up.

Here’s the simple distinction:

• IV Rank asks: Where is today’s IV between the 52-week low and high? (range-based)

• IV Percentile asks: How often has IV been lower than today over the lookback period? (frequency-based)

So you can get this weird but very real setup:

High IV Percentile + Meh IV Rank

This usually means IV has been elevated more often lately, but the underlying hasn’t printed a massive “one-day panic spike” that stretches the 52-week high. In other words, volatility is sticky, not explosive.

For premium sellers, that’s not the same as “we’re getting paid.”

It often means:

• premiums are better than the calm weeks,

• but the market still hasn’t priced a true tail,

• and you can get chopped if you sell too close and oversize.

High IV Rank + Lower IV Percentile

This is the opposite: a recent spike relative to the yearly range, but historically IV hasn’t spent much time here. That’s often where you get the cleanest “volatility edge”, because mean reversion is more likely and the options market is actively paying up.

Practical takeaway for this week

When IV Rank and IV Percentile disagree, don’t ask “is IV high?”
Ask which kind of high you’re dealing with:

• Sticky-high (IVP high, IVR average): sell smaller, sell farther, keep it risk-defined, and be picky about underlyings with clean trend structure.

• Spike-high (IVR high): better environment for defined-risk premium selling (spreads/condors), faster profit targets, and more aggressive volatility mean-reversion setups if liquidity is strong.

• Either way: let price location (expected move + RSI extremes) decide timing, not the “IV is high” label.

Premium selling isn’t about finding “high IV.” It’s about recognizing what kind of volatility you’re being paid for, and whether it’s worth the risk you’re taking.

👉 Want to read more on the topic? How to Read (and Use) IV Rank and IV Percentile Without Getting Confused

🔗 Let’s Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I’d love to hear from you.
📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

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💌 Send me your topic requests, whether for the newsletter, YouTube, or webinars. Seriously, send them. 🙂 

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium

Educational use only. The Option Premium is a publication for educational purposes and does not provide personalized investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Always confirm details and manage risk prudently.