📩 The Option Premium Weekly Issue - October 5, 2025

📨 Welcome Note

Why I’m Humbled, and What Comes Next

I want to begin with gratitude. The Option Premium is growing in ways I could only have hoped for, slowly, steadily, and most importantly, organically. Word of mouth, your engagement, and your belief in what we’re building have given this project its shape. For that, I’m truly humbled.

This isn’t about quick tips or “flash in the pan” trades. My goal has always been to create something useful, sustainable, and worthy of your trust, a place where traders of all levels can find strategies that actually work in the real world.

What’s Ahead

Momentum is building fast. In the coming weeks:

• 🎥 Our first YouTube videos will go live.

• 📚 Courses and live webinars will follow by year’s end.

• 🔧 New tools and resources will roll out, designed not for short-term hype, but for lasting value.

For premium subscribers, another milestone is near: the first earnings trades in The Implied Perspective, paired with deeper education, expanded strategies, and ongoing updates across all services.

📺 Subscribe on YouTube so you’ll be notified when the first videos are released.
👥 Join the private Facebook group or connect with me on X.
💌 Send me your topic requests, whether for the newsletter, YouTube, or webinars.

Results That Matter

Results should always speak louder than promises. Since May 1:

• The S&P 500 has gained ~14%.

• Our Wealth Without Shares portfolios have gained +30.5% in the same five months.

Standouts include Apple (+60.3%), Johnson & Johnson (+63.8%), and Merck (+52.2%), alongside steady income from Chevron (+31.8%) and Cisco (+24.7%).

Here’s what surprises most people: 100 shares of Apple cost more than all the positions in our portfolios combined. That’s capital efficiency in action. Poor Man’s Covered Calls let you control top-tier stocks for a fraction of the capital, once you see it, the value is undeniable.

The system itself is straightforward: anchor with deep ITM LEAPS, then consistently sell premium. A simple, repeatable framework designed to compound through any market environment.

For traders who prefer something even simpler, The Income Foundation, our $9/month service, has quietly gone 16-for-16 trades since May, compounding a +23.6% return, or $1,115 (per contract) with the Wheel Strategy.

A Note on Pricing

Beginning January 1st, subscription prices will rise. But if you join before then, your rate will be locked in for life.

Current pricing:

• The Income Foundation - $9/month or $79/year

• Wealth Without Shares - $49/month or $495/year (a service often priced at $1,500+ elsewhere)

The Bigger Picture

This has always been about more than trades. It’s about building something meaningful, brick by brick, strategy by strategy, with a community that values patience, discipline, and education over noise.

I’m honored to have you alongside me. The best is still ahead.

With respect and gratitude,

Andy

Market Commentary: Options in the Dark as Washington Shuts Down

At midnight on September 30, the government officially shut down. Nonessential operations are halted, hundreds of thousands of federal employees are furloughed, and perhaps most importantly for markets, key data releases, including jobs and inflation reports, are on pause. For options traders, this creates a rare environment: the economy is still running hot, but policymakers and investors are flying blind. And with uncertainty comes volatility.

The Economic Backdrop

The U.S. economy entered the shutdown with momentum. GDP growth estimates for Q3 are near 3.8%, fueled by steady consumer spending and unprecedented AI-driven capital investment. Retail sales remain strong, and private data (Redbook, auto sales) continues to show resilience even as official reports are frozen.

The wrinkle is timing. Shutdowns tend to dent short-term GDP by a tenth or two per week but rarely derail longer-term growth since federal workers receive back pay and spending eventually flows through. The larger risk is perception: prolonged political brinkmanship could sap confidence and inject bursts of volatility into an otherwise firm economy.

Labor Market Signals

The labor market is slowly cooling. Private payrolls (ADP) have now contracted in three of the past four months, and job openings have slipped below the number of unemployed workers for the first time since 2021. Companies seem hesitant to hire aggressively, though layoffs remain modest outside of government.

Without official labor reports, the Fed is left with imperfect signals heading into its October 29 meeting. The bias is toward more rate cuts, particularly if private data remains weak.

Fed Policy: Blind but Still Easing

The Fed cut rates last month for the first time this year and is likely to continue down that path. With inflation manageable and labor data softening, policymakers are leaning toward a gradual glide path toward 3% to 3.5% rates over the next 18 to 24 months. A prolonged shutdown only adds to the case for caution and further easing.

Markets: Momentum Meets Politics

Equities remain remarkably resilient. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all notched double-digit gains in Q3, driven by two forces: AI investment and lower rates. Shutdowns, historically, have had little lasting impact on stocks. Of the 20 since 1976, half saw markets rise during the closure, and most were higher three to six months afterward.

Still, with stocks up more than 35% since April without a meaningful pullback, conditions are ripe for at least some profit-taking. For options traders, that’s not a threat, it’s an opportunity.

What This Means for Options Traders

• Premium Expansion Likely: With the shutdown darkening the data flow, uncertainty alone could lift implied volatility. That creates a more favorable environment for income trades such as iron condors and credit spreads.

• Cheap Protection Available: If volatility remains muted, this is a window to add hedges (SPY puts, VIX call spreads) at low cost. If the shutdown drags on, these could pay off quickly.

• Long-Delta Core Still Intact: The underlying story, strong AI spending, solid consumer demand, gradual Fed easing, supports strategies like cash-secured puts and Poor Man’s Covered Calls on quality names.

• Sector Rotation Opportunities: AI leaders have dominated. If shutdown anxiety triggers a pullback, mid-caps, cyclicals, and lagging sectors may offer better risk/reward for both directional and income trades.

Bottom Line

Government shutdowns grab headlines, but history shows they rarely alter the market’s long-term trajectory. For options traders, the blackout of official data may actually play to our strengths: uncertainty expands premium, volatility creates opportunity, and disciplined strategies continue to generate income regardless of Washington’s dysfunction.

Stay patient, keep your wish list of trades ready, and remember, options are designed to thrive in exactly this kind of environment.

📊 Weekly Market Stats

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles 

🧠 Strategy Report - When the Market Won’t Pull Back: Lessons from the Bear Call Bleed

🧠 Strategy Report - When the Rally Runs Thin: Why More Traders Are Turning to Bear Call Spreads

🗓️ Tuesday, September 30th - 5 Powerful Ways to Layer Options Income Strategies for Steady Returns

🗓️ Thursday, October 2nd - Risk Management & Position Sizing for Options Traders

 ⁉️ Did You Know?

The Volatility Risk Premium: Options Are Usually Overpriced

Decades of data from the CBOE, Wharton, and academic research confirm a fascinating pattern:

• Implied volatility (IV), the market’s forecast of future movement priced into options, has been higher than realized volatility (RV) about 75 to 80% of the time.

• In plain terms: options are usually priced as if markets will swing more than they actually do.

• This consistent gap is known as the volatility risk premium.

Why does it exist? Because investors, funds, and institutions are willing to pay up for protection. Like insurance buyers, they accept a small “overpayment” in exchange for certainty. Options sellers, meanwhile, step in as the insurers, collecting that extra premium over and over again.

For Options Traders
This isn’t just trivia. The volatility risk premium is the foundation of many income strategies:

• Cash-Secured Puts → Get paid for taking on the risk of buying stock at a discount.

• Covered Calls → Collect income while reducing portfolio volatility.

• Iron Condors & Credit Spreads → Profit from markets staying inside “expected” ranges that are usually wider than reality.

By consistently selling overpriced options, traders harness a structural edge baked into the market, not a prediction, but a probability.

🎓 Options 101: The First Steps to Trading

How to Think About Risk Before Placing Your First Options Trade

This week’s Options 101 article tackles the most overlooked part of options trading: risk. Before chasing potential rewards, smart traders evaluate the dangers, directional risk, volatility risk, time decay, liquidity, and position sizing.

The piece lays out a simple framework for beginners: define your max loss, understand probabilities, ensure the trade fits your portfolio, and have an exit plan. By treating losses as the cost of doing business, you’ll build the one edge most new traders never develop, staying power.

Takeaway: Options aren’t dangerous; ignoring risk is. Master risk first, and you’ll survive long enough to thrive.

👉 Read this week’s Options 101 article to learn how professionals approach risk before ever placing a trade.

🧠 Mental Capital

Train not just your trading system, but your trading self.

The Paradox of Experience: How Veteran Traders Fall into New Traps

Experience is supposed to be a trader’s greatest advantage. Scars build discipline, cycles teach lessons textbooks can’t. But history shows a paradox: the very experience that saves traders in one era can sink them in the next.

From Druckenmiller underestimating Fed liquidity in 2020, to Soros getting caught in the dot-com bubble, to Jones and Livermore clinging too tightly to old convictions, legends have all learned the same hard truth: markets evolve, and yesterday’s lessons can become today’s blind spots.

This week’s piece explores:
✔️ Why old rules often fail in new regimes
✔️ The psychology behind experience traps, anchoring, availability bias, and overconfidence
✔️ A framework for turning scars into flexible principles, not rigid dogma
✔️ How to keep experience an adaptive edge rather than a liability

Experience only works if it stays fluid. Once it hardens into certainty, it becomes your biggest risk.

👉 Read the full article at The Option Premium

📊 The Implied Truth: Weekly Table Overview

Unlock the Full Picture – Upgrade to access the complete table, including all 100 equities (AAPL, META, AMZN, NVDA and more)

Every number tells a story. Each week, we decode the landscape across the most liquid ETFs, because this is where retail traders get the cleanest signals and the least slippage.

But the power isn’t in the data, it’s in how you interpret it.

Below is your edge: a strategic overview that reveals where the premium is overpriced, where price action is exhausted, and where the highest-probability setups exist for the coming week.

This section is here to help you choose what works for your strategy. The numbers are facts, not opinions. Whether you sell premium, buy directional spreads, or trade reversals, the edge begins with understanding volatility and momentum. Let’s dig in.

What This Table Tells Us

• Use this weekly to guide your trade ideas, not predict outcomes.

• The data is factual. There’s no opinion in this grid, only opportunity.

• Choose what aligns with your timeframe, risk appetite, and edge.

Quick Reference

🌐 Where Premium Sellers Should Be Looking

• URA 49.6 (IVR 81.8, IVP 95.5) → Uranium remains the highest-volatility pocket in the market. Elevated IV with mid-range RSI signals premium opportunities.

• SLV 43.5 (IVR 46.3, RSI14 80.1) → Silver extended across all timeframes, IV rich, premium selling setups remain attractive.

• GDX 77.1 (IVR 44.6, RSI14 78.8) → Miners follow the metals, stretched + rich vol.

• IBIT 69.8 (IVR 42.0, IV 52.2%) → Crypto vol still bid, with RSIs cooling from extreme levels.

📊 RSI Extremes

Overbought (RSI2 > 90 - short-term blowoffs):
DIA 98.7 🔴 | EFA 98.7 🔴 | EEM 97.9 🔴 | XBI 98.7 🔴 | RSP 97.5 🔴 | VTI 94.9 🔴 | XHB 95.8 🔴 | SPY 94.5 🔴

Sustained Overbought (RSI14 > 70):
SLV 80.1 🔴 | GDX 78.8 🔴 | GLD 79.4 🔴 | SMH 79.9 🔴 | XLU 70.6 🔴 | XLV 71.3 🔴 | XBI 74.9 🔴

Oversold (RSI2 < 20 - bounce candidates):
HYG 7.6 🟢 | USO 14.0 🟢

⚡ Overbought + Weak Premium

A dangerous mix:

• EEM (IVR 15.2, RSI14 76.8) → extended EM equities, but vol cheap.

• EFA (IVR 17.7, RSI14 67.8) → Europe stretched with shallow IV.

• DIA (IVR 12, RSI14 68.2) → Dow industrials short-term blowoff with weak vol pricing.

When vol is cheap + RSI stretched, moves can overshoot → patience is the edge.

📉 VIX & Market Volatility

• VIX 16.7 (IV 115.9%, IVR 36.1) → Surface calm, but implied pricing is elevated relative to realized → hedgers are paying up.

• Index IVs remain moderate (SPY 16.8%, QQQ 21.0%) → Equity vols not screaming stress, but the tape is extended.

✅ Final Signals from The Implied Truth

1. Metals & Miners (SLV, GDX, GLD) → Overbought across all timeframes with elevated vol → premium remains attractive.

2. Uranium (URA) → Volatility standout, worth watching for mean reversion.

3. Tech (SMH, XLK, QQQ) → Momentum still strong, but short-term RSI signals cooling → not a sell, but stretched.

4. Defensives (XLU, XLV, XLP) → Odd divergence: utilities and healthcare extended, staples weak but vol high.

📚 Educational Corner: Options Deep Dive

The Illusion of Control, A Three-Part Series on Trading What You Can Control, and Nothing Else

The longer you trade, the more humbling the markets become. You don’t control price moves, timing, or catalysts, and fighting them burns both capital and confidence. What separates professionals isn’t prediction, but discipline.

This week’s Educational Corner dives into three pillars:

• What You Can’t Control - markets are messy, random, and indifferent. Stop fighting battles you can’t win.

• What You Can Control - position sizing, strategy selection, hedging rules, and disciplined exits.

• The Mental Capital Edge - survival isn’t just financial; protecting your mindset is what keeps you in the game.

The takeaway: traders who last, stop pretending they can bend markets. They focus only on inputs they can control, letting probabilities, not predictions, compound over time.

👉 Read the full article: The Illusion of Control Series

⭐ Testimonial of the Week

Good afternoon Andy. For years I managed my IRA with dividend stocks(Aristocrats, Kings) with high liquidity and just sold covered calls. On average 12% to 16% returns. After reading up on PMCC's from your service, I studied 2 years worth of  my trades and realized that the leverage from LEAPS would exponentially grow income even without the dividends. Over several months I made the conversion form stocks to LEAPS (i wanted to squeeze out one more round of dividends.) I also subscribe to "Wealth Without Shares."

I modeled it after the Dalio All Weather Portfolio (which I learned about from you) with about 35% in TLT and IEF. Also have puts in SPY and DIA as a portfolio hedge. The rest is fairly evenly spread out over the 11 stock sectors. Super conservative.  

From mid-May to now I have generated $51,307 in short option income, and the LEAPS are appreciating nicely. This is on a portfolio worth about $400,000. At this rate I would be looking at a +40% income return from short calls. My question is, is this typical? It far blew away my expectations. It seems too good to be true. 

Am I missing something here? Is there something that emerges over time that tempers these results? Another way of asking is this: over a 3-5 year period, what kind of annual return could someone realistically anticipate from selling short calls (30 delta; 30-45 days out) consistently. Not fishing for a guarantee; looking for a reality check. 

I read everything you send and respect your work. Any insights you could give me would be greatly appreciated. 

Thank you for your work, and your time. 

Jeff, Subscriber to Wealth Without Shares

💡 Andy’s Take

First off, Jeff’s results highlight what makes PMCCs such a powerful tool: they allow traders to replace stock ownership with deep-in-the-money LEAPS, freeing up capital to sell premium more efficiently. That combination of leverage and defined risk is what creates the outsized income potential.

That said, a couple of reality checks are worth keeping in mind:

1. You’ll see periods where income spikes, but the real edge of PMCCs plays out over time, LEAPS provide appreciation while the short calls deliver steady premium. Historically, PMCCs have outperformed their underlying stocks by 3 to 5x, with drawdowns generally only 1 to 2x the underlying’s pullbacks.

2. Sequence matters. Periods of low volatility will bring in less premium, while volatile periods can create outsized opportunities (but also higher assignment and management risk).

3. Consistency wins. The law of large numbers is your ally. Selling 30-delta calls 30 to 45 days out is a sound approach, but the key is repeating the process over hundreds of trades, not expecting each month to mirror the last.

Jeff’s story is a great reminder of how PMCCs can transform an income strategy. But it’s also proof that patience, diversification, and hedging (like his use of SPY/DIA puts and bond exposure) are what turn short bursts of outperformance into long-term, sustainable results.

🔗 Let’s Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I’d love to hear from you.
📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

📘 Join the conversation on Facebook.
📺 Subscribe to the YouTube channel.

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium