📩 The Option Premium Weekly Issue - July 6, 2025

Before diving into this week’s insights, I want to briefly address a comment I came across on Reddit, one that echoed a growing frustration many of you likely share. It was about the state of financial publishers today, or more accurately, direct marketers masquerading as educators. You’ve seen the type: the endless YouTube pitches, the flood of emails over the holiday weekend pushing urgency, fear, outlandish cherry-picked returns, and “limited-time offers.”

I felt compelled to respond. Not just to defend what I do, but to reaffirm what The Option Premium stands for. Whether you're a paid subscriber or simply follow along with the free newsletter, know this: I will never send you a message unless I believe it carries real, actionable value. Your time is worth more than a sales funnel. My goal is that every email, every issue, leaves you better informed as a trader.

Here’s what I said in response:

I rarely chime in on threads like this, but this one hits close to home.

I’ve spent the last 23+ years trading options professionally, starting at Oppenheimer and later running multi-strategy options portfolios across several firms. These days, I publish a newsletter, a straightforward options education and trading newsletter. No gimmicks. No screenshots of 500% trades. Just real trades, real education, and honest commentary. Unfortunately, I'm often overlooked as I'm a trader, not a marketer. I've taught literally thousands of traders and still have personal relationships with many, so I will disagree, maybe its personal bias, but there are a few of us out there with good intentions that teach sound options strategies (not methods or systems) based on probabilities with risk management being the ultimate focal point.

What’s most frustrating is how marketers, mostly direct marketers, most with no actual options trading background, have hijacked the space. It's downright slimy. They sell dreams: 10x returns, $20K per month guarantees, and “sure-thing” systems. It's nonsense. And worse, it's hurting the people who are genuinely trying to learn. I can't tell you how many individuals have contacted me over the years asking if I could turn, say, $250k into $500k in a year. It's maddening that I have to tell them that anyone promising those types of returns are simply lying to you. But direct marketing is powerful and again, it makes the few of us trying to truly help others start out on the right foot, difficult to make headway as I don't make "get rich" claims. In fact, from day one it has been "realistic strategies, realistic results."

Again, I wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment here. These operations are often led by people who fail to disclose their real background (or fabricate it entirely), overpromise results, and then hide behind layers of support when things go wrong. It’s not education. It’s deception.

That’s exactly why I started my newsletter, to be the rare 1% in this space that puts education and transparency first. I don’t pitch trades. I don’t cherry-pick results. I focus on teaching repeatable, high-probability options strategies, like poor man’s covered calls, the wheel strategy, iron condors, and credit spreads, built on risk management, IV analysis, proper sizing, and real-world trade-offs. And yes, you can find much of that information for free, in fact I provide a lot of it myself, but understand there is nuance, there is a mental factor, discipline, risk management techniques (position-size, delta-hedging, etc.) and other factors that having 23+ years of experience gains you and allows you to teach others in a transparent way so that individuals have realistic expectations and understand that trading is a difficult path.

I charge fair prices. I keep my subscriber base small and manageable. I plan to close down new subscriptions, not to drive hype, but to preserve the quality of service. I'm not trying to scale into some “guru empire.” I'm trying to simply help regular traders build something sustainable, with the right expectations from day one.

There are a few honest voices out there. But they’re quiet because the algorithm and ad dollars reward the loudest liars. Bluntly, it sucks. If you’re reading this, just be cautious. Ask questions. Demand transparency. And remember: real trading is a process. Not a pitch. Like anything if it sounds to good, well....

But again, options trading has afforded me a wonderful lifestyle and one that has allowed me to live where I want, have time to spend with my family, afford to send my kids to college and many other wonderful things life has to offer. But it took me years of grinding as a professional trader, growing my account to get to where I am today. Overnight successes are just pure luck.

I hope this helps a few of you and more importantly, I do want people to know there are a few good, transparent, and honest people out there trying to help fellow investors/traders get on the right foot.

If this resonates with you, if you’re tired of the hype and just want to learn how to trade options with discipline and clarity, I invite you to stay on this journey with me.

Whether you stick with the free newsletter or explore the premium services I offer, my commitment remains the same: to provide real education, real trades, and real transparency.

I’m not here to sell dreams. I’m here to help serious traders build something sustainable, one thoughtful trade at a time.

And if you believe in what I’m doing, I’d be grateful if you helped spread the word. Share this newsletter with a fellow trader, post about it on social media, or forward it to someone who’s trying to navigate the chaos. The more we push back against the noise, the more room we make for real, thoughtful trading to thrive.

Thanks for reading, and for being part of the growing group of traders here at The Option Premium.

Let’s keep doing it the right way.

📉 Market Snapshot and Commentary

Midyear Options Outlook: Volatility Fades, but Strategy Still Matters

Stocks wrapped up the first half of 2025 at new highs, shaking off early-year trade tensions and volatility spikes. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up over 6% YTD, and a Fed rate-cut cycle likely to resume by fall, the tone has shifted, but not without complexity. Tariff risk remains elevated, and while economic data is holding up (e.g., June payrolls +147k), inflation pressures could reappear as inventories thin. That mix continues to support strategic option selling, defined-risk spreads, and relative strength plays across sectors.

Market internals remain strong, with over 60% of S&P stocks above their 200-day moving average ($SPXA200R = 0.606) and nearly 78% above their 50-day ($SPXA50R = 0.775). Breadth has broadened, which supports the use of index-based premium selling strategies (like SPY or RSP iron condors) and momentum-based trades in sectors like semiconductors (SMH), discretionary (XLY), and industrials (XLI). Implied volatilities remain moderate, VIX sits near 16, providing steady income opportunities without extreme skew.

While the trend remains bullish, we’re entering a stretch that often challenges directional traders. RSI levels across key indexes like SPY, QQQ, and IWM are firmly in overbought territory, and momentum indicators like MACD show signs of fatigue. Implied volatility is also scraping along the bottom, with IV Rank for many major ETFs sitting below 30. That combination—overbought technicals and low IV—often signals limited upside and a higher probability of short-term pullbacks or consolidation.

Seasonality isn’t on the market’s side either. Historically, the weeks following July 4th kick off a softer phase for equities, with Q3 often delivering the weakest returns of the year. This doesn’t mean the uptrend is over, but it does suggest traders should expect more two-sided action and less follow-through.

For options traders, now is the time to be selective. Neutral trades like iron condors or calendars may offer attractive setups in overextended ETFs with low IV. If directional trades are used, consider defined-risk structures like verticals and limit capital exposure until more favorable pricing or technical resets appear. Markets may need time to work off these extremes, and that reprieve could be the setup for stronger opportunities later in the quarter.

Weekly Market Performance - Week Ending July 3, 2025

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles 

🗓️ Tuesday, July 1st: The Hidden Trap of Chasing Returns: Why Risk Awareness Defines True Trading Success

🎓 Options 101: The First Steps to Trading

Every Options Trade Starts Here: The Option Premium Explained

If you're new to options trading, there's one number you have to understand before anything else: the option premium. It's not just the price tag on a trade, it's the heartbeat of the entire contract. Whether you're buying or selling, the premium reflects real value (what the option is worth today) and time value (the potential based on time and volatility). This one figure reveals the market’s expectations, your potential profit or loss, and how much room you have for the trade to work in your favor.

This article breaks it all down using a clear, beginner-friendly example with Nike stock, explaining why a $6.50 premium isn't just a random number, but a precise reflection of real market forces. It walks you through intrinsic vs. extrinsic value, what causes premiums to rise or fall, and how to use this knowledge to make smarter, more strategic trades. If you’ve ever looked at an option chain and felt overwhelmed, this is your guide. Read the full article here →

🧠 Mental Capital

Train not just your trading system, but your trading self.

The Illusion of Control - Why Overtrading Feels Smart but Kills Your Edge

In trading, doing more often feels like doing better.

But this week’s issue of The Option Premium exposes the uncomfortable truth: your need to feel “in control” is likely what’s sabotaging your success.

Inside this edition:

✅ The psychological trap that causes traders to overanalyze, over adjust, and overtrade
✅ Why watching charts longer or tweaking filters rarely improves your edge
✅ A practical framework for escaping illusion-based trading decisions
✅ The subtle difference between managing risk and reacting to randomness
✅ How professionals build conviction without needing constant confirmation

You can’t outsmart variance. But you can build a process that outlasts it.

👉 Read the full breakdown at Mental Capital – The Illusion of Control

Because the market doesn’t reward control, it rewards consistency.

📊 The Implied Truth: Weekly Table Overview

Unlock the Full Picture – Upgrade to access the complete table, including all 100 equities (AAPL, META, AMZN, NVDA and more)

Market Summary - This Week's Premium Landscape

Markets are overheating, but volatility isn’t budging.

• SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA all show extreme RSI readings, with the S&P and Russell hitting 99+ on the RSI(2).

• Volatility is low across the board, with most major ETFs showing IV Ranks below 15, even as prices surge.

• Breadth remains strong, but implied volatility is compressing, making it harder for premium sellers to find edge in the usual places.

🔍 What we're watching:
A few sector ETFs, like URA, USO, and XOP, still offer decent option premiums and more balanced momentum. We're also eyeing a few momentum setups where premium and trend align.

Want the full analysis, including:

• This week’s top premium-selling setups

• Our best contrarian plays using RSI + IV Rank

• Real-world trade setups?

Final Signals from The Implied Truth

What’s Paid Members Get?

In The Option Premium, this macro view is just the beginning. Paid members get:

• 🔔 Real-time trade alerts with clear entries/exits

• 📊 Portfolio breakdowns for PMCCs, condors, and spreads

• 💡 Weekly guidance based on The Implied Truth signals

• 🎯 Risk-defined setups with high win probabilities

My premium subscribers receive complete ETF sector strategies, including exact option structures, entry timing based on RSI(2) signals, and portfolio allocation guidelines for sector rotation plays like the XLF opportunity detailed above.

If you want the specific trade setups, how I structure the entries, and what I avoid, that’s all covered in my premium services.

📊 Quick Reference: The Implied Truth Table

📚 Educational Corner: Options Deep Dive

Educational Corner: Time Decay in Options - How Theta Rewards the Patient Seller

Time decay is one of the few consistent advantages in options trading, if you’re on the right side of it. This week’s article explores how theta, the Greek that measures time decay, quietly generates income for option sellers day after day.

Inside, you’ll learn:

• What theta really means, and how it accelerates as expiration approaches

• Why many traders sell options instead of buying them

• How theta plays a central role in strategies like credit spreads, iron condors, covered calls, PMCCs, and The Wheel

• Why 30–45 days to expiration is the sweet spot for many time-based strategies

• How to manage risk while collecting premium, including when to take profits early

Theta isn’t theoretical. It’s measurable, dependable, and often overlooked. For patient, disciplined traders, it can become the core engine of steady income, without needing to predict market direction.

👉 Read the full article here: Time Decay in Options: How Theta Rewards the Patient Seller

🔗 Let’s Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I’d love to hear from you.
📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

📘 Join the conversation on Facebook.
📺 Subscribe to the YouTube channel.

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium