⚡ In This Issue: Relief Rally or Just a Breather? Why Volatility Still Favors Smart Premium Sellers

Markets staged an impressive rebound last week, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow all posting strong gains as trade tensions and Fed worries eased. But under the surface, implied volatility remains elevated, breadth remains weak, and the macro backdrop is far from fully repaired. For options traders, this dynamic presents rich opportunities—but only for those who stay disciplined.

This issue breaks down the sectors offering the best premium-selling setups, including biotech, energy, and small caps, where IV remains juicy and risk can be tightly defined. We'll walk through key breadth readings, RSI extremes, and smart ways to position for volatility without chasing short-term moves.

Finally, we dig into the often-overlooked mental side of trading: how overconfidence, fear, and FOMO can quietly erode even the best strategies—and how mastering your psychology can sharpen your trading edge just as much as any technical skill.

📉 Market Snapshot & Commentary

Markets Rebound as Trade Winds Shift and Fed Worries Ease

Markets caught their breath last week, with stocks and bonds both posting solid gains as trade rhetoric softened and fears about Fed independence faded. The S&P 500 climbed 4.6%, the NASDAQ surged 6.7%, and the Dow added 2.5%, as hopes grew that the worst of the tariff-driven uncertainty may be behind us. Bond yields slipped, with the 10-year Treasury yield drifting back toward the midpoint of its expected range at 4.26%, helping boost bond prices and offering a reminder of the diversification benefits of balanced portfolios.

The shift came after signs that the U.S. administration may be rethinking its most aggressive tariff measures. Media reports suggest possible cuts to Chinese tariffs are on the table, and negotiations with other key trading partners like South Korea and India appear to be making progress. While no major agreements have been finalized, the move away from maximum confrontation has helped lower the market’s “policy risk premium” for now.

Trade Easing, but Volatility Likely Isn’t Over Yet

The tariff narrative remains fluid, and markets are unlikely to get a clean resolution overnight. Until a major trade deal is inked, I expect volatility to remain elevated, especially around data releases and geopolitical headlines. Still, with the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index falling sharply since early April, and corporate earnings starting strong, the foundation for further stability is building.

Strategic Takeaways for Options Traders

For premium sellers, this environment remains attractive. Elevated implied volatility, RSI divergences, and headline-driven reversals are creating rich setups, particularly in sectors tied to global trade and interest rates. Strategies like short credit spreads, iron condors, and diagonal spreads remain smart tools for capturing premium while managing risk tightly.

However, traders should expect rangebound markets with periodic whipsaws, not a straight shot back to early-2025 highs. We are halfway off the lows, but also halfway off the highs—a zone that typically rewards discipline, risk definition, and mechanical execution, rather than aggressive directional bets.

Corporate Earnings Take Center Stage

Roughly 60% of S&P 500 companies will report earnings over the next two weeks, including key names from the Magnificent Seven. Early results have been encouraging, with 75% of companies beating estimates by a margin stronger than the 10-year average. However, tariff-related headwinds haven’t yet fully filtered into forward guidance. Earnings growth projections for 2025 have already been revised down from 14% to 9.5%, and further downgrades could test market resilience.

From a sector view, health care and financials stand out: health care for its defensive-growth profile, and financials for their relative insulation from trade frictions and potential upside if regulatory relief or tax reform gains traction later this year.

Final Market Thoughts

Relief rallies like the one we just saw are often the first step, not the last. I don’t expect a classic V-shaped rebound given lingering inflation pressures and limited fiscal stimulus compared to past cycles.

For investors and options traders alike, patience, structure, and diversification amongst strategies remain the best tools for navigating this next phase. Avoid chasing emotional moves and focus instead on harvesting premium where fear remains overpriced relative to fundamentals.

Markets aren’t fully out of the woods—but the clearing ahead looks more visible than it has all year.

Weekly Market Stats:

🚨 Important Update: Launch Now Set for Thursday, May 1st

After months of planning, building, and testing, I’m grateful to share that The Option Premium paid services are almost ready—and will officially launch on Thursday, May 1st.

If you’ve reached out for early access, you’ll still be first in line. I’ll be sending you everything you need ahead of the public rollout.

Rather than rushing to meet an arbitrary deadline, I chose to take a little more time to ensure everything is just right—from trade alerts to portfolios to member resources. I want your first experience to be smooth, intuitive, and valuable.

Whether you’ve been following my work for twenty years or twenty days, I can’t thank you enough for your trust, patience, and support. This project has been a true labor of love, built for traders who value real edge, real education, and real accountability. I’m excited for what’s ahead—and this is only the beginning.

P.S. My hope is that The Option Premium becomes the most valuable resource for options education and trading you’ll find anywhere. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to earn that. If you have any questions before early access opens, please don’t hesitate to reach out at [email protected]. I’m always glad to hear from you.

🔹 Market Meter:

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles 

🗓️ Tuesday, April 22nd: Risk-Free Iron Condor? How to Trade Nvidia (NVDA) Using the Jade Lizard Strategy

🗓️ Thursday, April 24th: 10 Essential Principles Every Successful Options Trader Should Master

🧠 Mental Capital 

Train not just your trading system, but your trading self.

🎯 The Inner Game of Options: Why Your Mindset Is More Important Than Your Model

“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett

Traders love to talk about models. About Greeks. About setups.

But beneath all the spreadsheets, backtests, and volatility curves lies the real game—one played between your ears.

It’s the game that doesn’t show up on your broker dashboard or your P&L statement.
It’s the game of managing your fear, tempering your greed, and resisting the constant temptation to act on impulse.

Welcome to the inner game of options trading.

🎭 The Mind at War With Itself

Options traders are, by nature, thinkers. We work in probabilities, not predictions.
But even the most sophisticated options strategy can implode when the trader behind it is being controlled by emotion rather than reason.

Let’s name the culprits:

• Overconfidence leads you to oversize.

• Fear causes you to cut winners short or avoid valid trades.

• FOMO tempts you into jumping into poor setups just because “everyone else” is doing it.

Each of these mental biases chips away at your edge—often invisibly—until one day, you find yourself asking:

It wasn’t your strategy. It was your psychology.

🤖 The Model Isn’t the Edge—You Are

There’s a growing belief among retail traders that the edge lies in the math: Greeks, expected move calculations, IV rank.

Don’t get me wrong—those are essential.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: plenty of traders know how to calculate probability of profit. Far fewer know how to act consistently on that knowledge.

The real edge isn’t just in building a model.

It’s in sticking with it when it’s uncomfortable. It’s in selling premium during volatility spikes when the headlines are screaming recession. It’s in staying on the sidelines when the market is on fire and Twitter (X) is full of moonshots.

Your edge is behavioral discipline in a world that seemingly rewards reactive behavior.

🧠 Overconfidence: The Silent Killer of Statistical Thinking

Overconfidence might be the most seductive of the trading sins.
It whispers to you after a winning streak: “You’ve figured it out. Size up.”

Suddenly, you’re placing 4x your normal position size on a short strangle.
You collect a big premium and feel bulletproof—until one black swan move wipes it all out.

This is classic variance illusion: mistaking short-term success for long-term skill.

😨 Fear: The Great Saboteur of Good Trades

Fear doesn’t get enough attention in options trading circles.
We tend to overemphasize the “mechanics” and underemphasize the emotional friction of holding risk-defined positions in turbulent markets.

Here’s how fear usually shows up:

• You hesitate to put on a trade because the VIX just jumped.

• You close a position early—even though your thesis is intact—because a bad headline pops up.

• You “need a win” so you grab a lower-probability, higher-reward trade out of desperation.

None of these are rational decisions. They are emotional responses masquerading as risk management.

📱 FOMO: The Most Expensive Trade You’ll Ever Make

The hardest thing in trading isn’t managing losers. It’s watching/hearing someone else win without you.

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is especially dangerous in the options world because it tricks you into abandoning your process.

You see a friend post a 400% gain on a speculative weekly call. You feel like you’ve been trading “too safe.” So you take a flyer on something you never backtested, never sized properly, and never planned to exit.

You’re not trading anymore—you’re chasing.

The problem is that you don’t see the 10 other trades your friend didn’t post.
You’re playing someone else’s highlight reel with your real money.

🧰 Tools for Mastering the Inner Game

1. Pre-Trade Checklist (Mental Edition)

Before placing any trade, run through this checklist:

• Am I following my strategy, or reacting emotionally?

• Is this position sized consistently with my past trades?

• If this trade fails, will I still trust my process?

If you answer “no” to any of these, step away.

2. The Two-Minute Rule

Force a pause before every trade. Just two minutes.
Use that time to breathe, revisit your process, and check for emotional triggers.

It’s shocking how often this simple habit prevents reckless trades.

3. Journal the Emotion, Not Just the Trade

Log how you felt when you placed the trade.
Fearful? Excited? Rushed? Calm?

Over time, you’ll see patterns—and you’ll learn when you’re most vulnerable to error.

🔁 Process Over Prediction: The Mental Framework of Pros

Here’s something every elite options trader eventually learns:

Consistency beats brilliance. A repeatable process beats a one-time jackpot. An emotionally grounded trader outlasts the spreadsheet genius who panics every time volatility spikes.

📈 Where Mindset Meets Money

At The Option Premium, we talk a lot about mechanics—IV rank, delta hedging, expected move, portfolio integration.

But if your psychology isn’t in sync, none of it will matter.

Because here’s the truth:

• The discipline to hold a high-probability iron condor when IV is elevated? That’s mindset.

• The ability to roll a losing PMCC without panic or revenge-trading? That’s mindset.

• The humility to take base hits instead of swinging for the fences? That’s mindset.

Master the inner game, and the models will take care of themselves.

📬 Final Thought: Train Your Mind Like You Train Your Strategy

Most traders obsess over their technical setups but leave their mindset to chance.

That’s like tuning a race car’s engine and ignoring the driver’s reflexes.

Every week, you’ll get tools, commentary, and research here at The Option Premium to improve your external trading strategy. But never forget the internal one.

It’s your temperament—not your terminal—that determines your success.

📊 Weekly Table Overview: The Implied Truth 

Welcome to the most anticipated section of The Option Premium — your weekly guide to navigating volatility and transforming uncertainty into opportunity. Here, we break down the data, spotlight the most actionable setups, and lay out a clear, structured framework for premium-selling strategies. If anything catches your eye — or if you want to workshop a trade idea — I'm always just a message away.

We’re stepping into a landscape that’s tailor-made for disciplined premium sellers. Breadth metrics ($SPXA50R and $SPXA200R), while coming off the lows, continue to display weakness, volatility remains elevated across key ETFs, and momentum signals are flashing extreme conditions in several corners of the market. With IV ranks pressing higher in small caps, biotech, miners, and semiconductors — and major indices hitting short-term overbought levels — the pricing of risk is no longer balanced.
It’s skewed, and for those who trade with structure, that imbalance creates opportunity.

This isn’t the time for guesswork or chasing moves. It’s a time for planning, position-sizing, and stacking probability in your favor. Let’s walk through today’s market landscape, identify where patience pays, and outline the smartest paths for positioning right now.

A volatility-forward view of the market’s most liquid ETFs—filtered through the lens of time decay, overextension, and opportunity.

A volatility-forward view of the market’s most liquid ETFs—filtered through the lens of time decay, overextension, and opportunity.

🧭 Breadth Check: Still Weak Across the Board

🔥 Volatility Landscape: Where Premium Is Most Attractive

🚨 RSI Extremes: Potential Reversal or Mean Reversion Areas

📉 High/Low Graph Extremes: Who’s Near Their Highs or Lows?

• Near Highs: SPY, QQQ, VTI, GLD, EFA

• Near Lows: Few — market strength is still selectively pushing winners higher.

Implication:
Markets are stretched but not universally fragile yet. Premium selling should favor selectivity — avoid blanket bearish bets.

🛠 Best Current Premium-Selling Targets

🔍 Caution Zones: Where to Tread Carefully

• IBIT / GLD / SPY / QQQ: Overbought + elevated IV → Great for bear call spreads or cautious upside fades.

• Low Volatility (Avoid Naked Selling):
  XLV, XLP, TLT — premiums too thin relative to risks.

📢 The Implied Truth This Week — Final Summary

✅ Breadth is weakening — structure matters more than prediction.
✅ Selective elevated IV — biotech, small caps, and commodities most attractive.
✅ RSI extremes flashing warning — mean-reversion setups are increasingly attractive.
✅ Favor risk-defined premium selling — like iron condors, jade lizards, bear call spreads.
✅ Tighten risk controls — given the sharp two-way swings brewing under the surface.

📊 Quick Reference: The Implied Truth Table

Use this to spot volatility trends, premium opportunities, and momentum shifts at a glance. 🚀

📚 Educational Corner: Options Deep Dive

🎓 Topic of the Week: How to Trade Earnings with Expected Move, IV, and Proper Position Sizing

In this week’s Educational Corner learn how to trade earnings season like a pro using expected move and implied volatility. Discover high-probability options strategies, IV crush advantages, and the critical role of position sizing for aggressive setups.

👉 Click here to read the full breakdown.

🔗  Let’s Stay Connected

Have questions, feedback, or just want to say hello? I’d love to hear from you.
📩 Email me anytime at [email protected]

📘 Join the conversation on Facebook.
📺 Subscribe to the YouTube channel.

Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium