⚡ In This Issue: When the Market’s Confused, Stay Structured: Your Options Playbook This Week

"Great opportunities come when investors are desperately trying to avoid pain." — Howard Marks

This week, we explore how uncertainty—from tariffs to Treasury yields—is creating rich opportunity for traders who structure instead of speculate. While headlines rattle markets, elevated volatility is quietly rewarding patience and precision.

Inside:

• Market Snapshot – A look at why tariff fears and Powell’s pause have the NASDAQ down and volatility up

• Tariff Scenarios – Two possible policy paths—and how each impacts inflation, yields, and trading strategies

• The Implied Truth – Where IV, RSI, and skew are signaling edge for bull put spreads, iron condors, and contrarian plays

• Mental Capital – The Illusion of Control: How traders sabotage their edge by overestimating certainty

• Educational Corner – Laddering PMCCs for Consistent Income: A simple tweak that can transform your portfolio

• 🚨 April 28 Launch – The Option Premium paid services go live. Real strategies. Real portfolios. Zero guesswork.

👉 This isn’t a time for prediction—it’s a time for preparation. Let’s get to work.

📈 Market Snapshot & Commentary

🏭 Tariffs, Treasuries & Tension: What Traders Should Watch Now

Markets lost ground last week, with the S&P 500 slipping 1.5% and the NASDAQ retreating 2.6%, as tariff tensions once again took center stage. Export restrictions targeting semiconductors hit tech stocks especially hard—dragging down names like NVIDIA and weighing on broader sentiment. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed a cautious stance, signaling that rate cuts remain on hold amid a murky inflation outlook complicated by trade policy.

There was at least some silver lining: bond markets stabilized, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 16 basis points, helping push the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index up nearly 1% on the week. For diversified investors, this was a timely reminder of fixed income’s role as a counterbalance. Still, with the S&P 500 now down over 10% year-to-date and the NASDAQ off nearly 16%, equity markets remain vulnerable to further volatility until there’s clarity on the direction of trade negotiations.

🧭 The Two Tariff Paths: What’s Priced In—And What’s Not

At The Option Premium, we analyze market environments through two lenses: what’s likely, and what’s possible. Right now, the most probable outcome is a moderate tariff regime—not business as usual, but not an all-out trade war either. In this scenario, average U.S. tariffs remain in the 10–15% range, with China and key sectors like steel, autos, and semiconductors continuing to face pressure. Inflation would likely drift higher toward 3.5%–4%, but may peak later this year as base effects normalize. Growth would slow, but not stall—annualized GDP may still hover around 1%, supported by consumer resilience and potential fiscal offsets.

The less likely, but more disruptive, scenario is one where tariffs escalate sharply. If the U.S. average rate pushes toward 25%, the inflation outlook worsens (5%+), and the probability of a recession rises materially. In that case, the Fed would be forced to act aggressively—perhaps cutting rates four or more times—and markets could retest bear market territory, with the S&P 500 falling 20% or more from recent highs. Yields would likely fall below 4%, and investor positioning would shift defensively across both stocks and bonds.

🧠 Strategic Takeaways for Options Traders

From a volatility perspective, the market remains elevated but reactive—not panicked. The ongoing tariff narrative is now the primary driver of sentiment and skew. Options premiums, particularly in sector ETFs like SMH (semiconductors) and FXI (China large-caps), remain inflated. This opens the door for defined-risk trades that monetize policy uncertainty without betting on a specific outcome:

• Iron condors and credit spreads remain attractive in high-IV environments, especially when directional bias is unclear.

• Cash-secured puts on oversold names or indexes with strong support levels can position traders for either reversion or assignment at favorable prices.

• Diagonal and calendar spreads can capture time decay in tickers likely to oscillate around headlines rather than trend decisively.

While a V-shaped recovery is unlikely, range-bound volatility favors premium sellers—and right now, the market is pricing in movement without yet confirming the direction.

🛠 Patience, Positioning & the Path Ahead

There are reasons to believe 2026 could look better than 2025, especially if fiscal reform (e.g., tax cuts or deregulation) materializes and the Fed delivers accommodative policy in the second half of the year. That doesn’t mean smooth sailing—but it does mean that this year’s volatility may eventually be seen as a base-building phase, not a breakdown.

For long-term investors and traders alike, the takeaway remains the same: don’t trade headlines—trade structure and probability. We continue to recommend staying diversified, managing size carefully, and leaning into setups where premiums are rich and risk is capped.

This isn’t a time to chase moves. It’s a time to manage trades and stay tactical. As always, the edge lies in preparation, not prediction.

🚨 Mark Your Calendar: Monday, April 28th

After months of planning, writing, building, and testing, I’m thrilled to share that The Option Premium paid services are officially launching April 28th.

If you’ve reached out to reserve early access, you’ll hear from me soon—before the public rollout—with everything you need to get started.

This has been a long time coming. I’ve spent years sharing my trading approach inside other firms and platforms, but this is the first time I’m doing it fully on my own terms—with no gatekeepers, no filters, and no compromises.

Whether you’ve followed my work for twenty years or twenty days, I can’t thank you enough for your trust and support. This new chapter is built for traders who want real edge, real education, and real accountability. And we’re just getting started.

🔹 Market Meter:

🧠 Mental Capital

Train not just your trading system, but your trading self.

The Illusion of Control in Options Trading: How to Manage the Unknown Without Losing Your Edge

One of the most dangerous things in trading is believing you have more control than you actually do.

And yet, it’s also one of the most common beliefs among options traders—especially those who build their edge on “defined risk” strategies. We run the numbers. We construct high-probability trades. We hedge. We analyze volatility. We time our entries down to the RSI.

So it feels like we’re in control.
But here’s the truth: Markets don’t reward certainty.
They reward those who are best prepared when certainty vanishes.

This is what we call the illusion of control—a behavioral finance trap where we overestimate our ability to manage outcomes in environments governed by randomness, risk, and feedback loops.

Options trading, for all its statistical precision, is full of these traps.

So how do you trade with confidence while staying humble enough to recognize what you can’t control?

Let’s dig in.

🎯 The Core Behavioral Trap: Why “Feeling in Control” Can Be Costly

In the 1970s, psychologist Ellen Langer conducted experiments showing that people feel more confident when they have any level of involvement—even if the outcome is entirely random.

Participants were more likely to overestimate their chances of winning the lottery when they picked the number themselves versus receiving one assigned at random.

This same bias shows up in options trading:

• You select the perfect credit spread.

• You’ve got 80% probability of profit.

• You screen for high IV rank, favorable skew, supportive RSI.

• You’re trading small. You’re “in control.”

And yet…
An unexpected news event slams the market. Your spread is tested. Implied volatility explodes. You lose more than you anticipated.

You did everything right, and you still lost.

That psychological whiplash—between perceived control and the reality of markets—is where poor decision-making starts to creep in. That’s when you start chasing, widening stops, revenge trading, or abandoning your process entirely.

And ironically, the tighter you try to grip control… the faster it slips away.

🔄 Options Trading Is About Managing Uncertainty, Not Eliminating It

We tend to forget that every trade is a probability distribution—not a prediction.

Even if a trade has a 75% probability of success, that still means 1 in 4 will fail—randomly.

If you’ve been trading long enough, you’ve experienced it:

• Your 90% OTM credit spread gets breached in a 3-sigma move.

• You sell premium into earnings and get caught in an outsized gap.

• You enter a trade on textbook technicals—and a geopolitical headline rewrites the rules.

The reality is: you’re always trading with incomplete information.

Volatility, macro, liquidity, and crowd behavior are all fluid variables. Options markets reflect the expectation of movement, not the actual catalyst or outcome.

So rather than attempt to eliminate uncertainty, the professional approach is to build a trading system that remains intact—even when uncertainty takes over.

That’s how you preserve mental capital and avoid tilting.

🛠 What You Can Control (And Why It Matters More Than You Think)

Let’s shift focus.

The most consistent traders I know—across volatility regimes, bull and bear cycles, and across styles—aren’t those who chase control…

They’re the ones who control themselves and their system inputs.

You can’t control:

• Market direction

• Earnings reactions

• IV spikes from surprise events

• Liquidity gaps

• Order flow noise

• News cycles

But you can control:

✅ Strategy Selection

Are you matching the trade to the current environment?
High IV? Use defined-risk premium selling.
Low IV? Lean on diagonals, calendars, or debit spreads.

✅ Position Sizing

This is the first and last line of defense.
If you’re consistently risking 2% of capital per trade, no single outlier can derail your system.

✅ Entry Process

Use rules—not emotions—for entry.
Many traders wait for price confirmation or IV thresholds to align.
Your checklist matters more than your gut.

✅ Exit Discipline

Don’t treat your stop-loss as optional.
And don’t let profits turn into break-evens because you wanted more.

✅ Emotional Detachment

Ask yourself before every trade:
“If this loses, can I accept the outcome without regret?”

That question alone keeps you in process—not prediction.

💥 A Case Study: The Strangle That Stung

Let’s walk through a hypothetical.

You sell a strangle on QQQ when IV Rank hits 90. The 0.15 delta strikes offer you a wide breakeven cushion, and the trade is well-positioned into earnings season. You collect $3.25 in premium.

Three days later, Powell delivers a surprise hawkish comment. QQQ drops 5% intraday. Implied volatility jumps. Your short put gets tested.

If you believed you were “in control,” you may:

• Add size to “fix” the trade.

• Freeze and hope for a rebound.

• Deviate from your stop-loss to avoid taking a hit.

But if you understand your role is to manage risk—not predict events—you:

• Evaluate if your max loss is still intact.

• Stick to your plan.

• Cut or adjust the trade if your system dictates.

This mindset isn’t just healthier. It’s more profitable in the long run.

Why?

Because you’re not trying to outwit randomness. You’re navigating through it with rules.

🧠 A Thought Exercise to Ground You

The next time you're about to enter a trade, ask:

If your answer is “yes,” you’re in a good mental place.

If the answer is “no,” you might be trading from ego, emotion, or the illusion of certainty.

🔁 Why This Matters More in Options Than in Any Other Market

In equities, you can get lucky. A stock goes up, and your P/L follows.

But in options, the interplay of time decay, IV, gamma, skew, and price means you can be right on direction and still lose money.

Which is why emotional discipline and process consistency are far more important than conviction or feeling “certain.”

Most retail traders don’t lose because they don’t know the Greeks.
They lose because they overreact to randomness and abandon structure under pressure.

🔐 The Edge You’re Really Trading

The best edge in options isn’t just IV Rank, or high R/R setups.
It’s the combination of:

• Consistency in application

• Flexibility in response

• Detachment from outcome

That’s the edge almost no one talks about. And it’s also the one that scales.

🧭 Final Takeaways: Control Is a Mindset, Not a Market Feature

Markets are chaotic. They are probabilistic, non-linear, and sometimes irrational.
That’s the playing field—and it doesn’t care about your trade.

But once you internalize that control is an internal game, the way you trade changes:

• You stop obsessing over being right.

• You start obsessing over following your process.

• You stop reacting to fear.

• You start leaning into discipline.

And as options traders, that statement is even more true.

You will never eliminate randomness.
But you can build a system—and a mindset—that thrives in the face of it.

Control what you can.
Let go of what you can’t.
And trade the next setup like the last trade never happened.

📩 Like this perspective?
Share The Option Premium with a fellow trader who needs a stronger mindset for navigating volatility. Every week, I publish not just strategies—but the mental tools to actually stick to them.

📰 Weekly In-Depth Articles 

🗓️ Tuesday, April 15th: Step-by-Step Breakdown: Wheel Options Trading Strategy for Discounted Stocks

🗓️ Thursday, April 17th: Building a Recession-Resistant Portfolio with Poor Man’s Covered Calls

📊 Weekly Table Overview: The Implied Truth

Welcome to the most anticipated section of The Option Premium—your weekly guide to navigating volatility and turning uncertainty into opportunity. This is where we break down the numbers, highlight the most actionable setups, and offer a clear framework for premium-selling strategies. If something catches your eye or you'd like to dive deeper into a trade structure, I'm always just a message away.

We’re in one of the most compelling environments for options sellers we’ve seen in a long time. With RSI levels coming off deeply oversold, IV ranks elevated across major ETFs, and a market dominated by downside hedging, the pricing of risk has become skewed—and that creates edge. This isn’t a time for guesswork. It’s a time for structure. Let’s walk through the current landscape, identify where probabilities favor the patient, and outline how to position with confidence.

A volatility-forward view of the market’s most liquid ETFs—filtered through the lens of time decay, overextension, and opportunity.

🎯 Positioning With Probabilities

Let’s simplify what the market is giving us this week: not a full-on panic, but fragmented fear and elevated premiums in selective areas. That’s where methodical option premium sellers thrive—when others flinch, we structure.

🧭 Market Internals Say: Stay Neutral, Sell Vol

• Breadth is still weak.

  • $SPXA200R at 30.4%

  • $SPXA50R at 24.2%

These breadth numbers mean that most stocks remain below key moving averages. We're not in a sustained uptrend. That favors non-directional, range-bound strategies like iron condors and jade lizards—with a lean toward the put side in sectors showing RSI extremes.

🔍 Where Probabilities Favor the Patient

We’ll break this down across four primary zones:

🟩 Oversold + Elevated IV (Bounce Candidates for Bull Put Spreads)

📌 Strategy: Bull put spreads or put-side jade lizards with deltas under 25. Use 20–45 DTE for flexibility and theta capture.

🟥 Overbought + Elevated IV (Short Call Spread Territory)

📌 Strategy: Short call spreads or iron condors with tight upside wings. Avoid naked calls—stick with defined risk.

⚖️ High IV Rank + Neutral RSI (Best for Iron Condors)

📌 Strategy: 1.5x–2x expected move iron condors. Stick to 25–45 DTE. Favor 20–25 delta wings and a credit ≥1.5x risk.

🟦 Unusual Setups (P/C Extremes or Sector Skews)

📌 Strategy: Where P/C > 3.0 and IV is high, think short calls or balanced condors. Market is hedging downside heavily.

✅ Final Thoughts: Structure Over Prediction

This week’s tape offers a textbook example of how probability > prediction:

• Breadth is weak → avoid undefined risk bullish directional bets (long calls), risk-defined spreads make more sense

• Implied volatility is rich → sell premium, don’t buy it

• RSI extremes → let mean reversion tilt the edge in your favor

👇 Actionable Playbook (by Strategy)

📊 Quick Reference: The Implied Truth Table

Use this to spot volatility trends, premium opportunities, and momentum shifts at a glance. 🚀

📚 Educational Corner: Options Deep Dive

🎓 Topic of the Week: Poor Man’s Covered Call Ladder Strategy Explained

Poor Man’s Covered Calls are a great way to generate income with less capital, but most traders run into the same problem—everything comes due at once. Short calls expire around the same time, LEAPS start drifting, and instead of managing trades proactively, you’re reacting to a crowded expiration calendar. The issue isn’t the strategy itself—it’s how the trades are structured.

In this week’s feature, I walk through how to ladder your PMCC positions to avoid that pile-up. You’ll learn how to stagger LEAPS and short calls across different expirations, sectors, and deltas to reduce stress and gain more control over your portfolio. Whether you’re trading with $5,000 or $100,000, a laddered approach makes it easier to manage adjustments, reduce risk, and stay consistent.

👉 Click here to read the full breakdown.

🔗  Let’s Stay Connected

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Thanks again for reading. I hope you found today’s insights valuable and worth your time.

Trade Smart. Trade Thoughtfully.
Andy Crowder
Founder | Editor-in-Chief | Chief Options Strategist
The Option Premium