The Earnings Playbook: October 27-31, 2025

📊 Earnings Season: Tech-Heavy Slate Ahead

Next week’s calendar pivots to a concentrated tech-heavy slate. The midweek cluster is the story: GOOGL, META, and MSFT report Wednesday after the bell, followed by AAPL and AMZN Thursday evening. Expect the tape, and the options markets, to be most active around those windows, with the deepest liquidity sitting in those mega-cap names.

Bookending that, early week features PYPL, SOFI, and UNH before Tuesday’s open, plus BA and VZ on Wednesday morning. Into Thursday night you’ll also see the higher-volatility satellites, COIN, MSTR, RDDT, and RIOT, alongside CMG. In short: cleanest markets and tightest spreads in the mega-caps; bigger swings and wider markets in the satellites.

🎓 Understanding the Setup

Before diving into specific trades, it’s important to understand what drives the opportunity each quarter.

Leading up to an earnings announcement, speculators and hedgers rush to buy options to position for potential surprises. This surge in demand inflates implied volatility (IV), increasing the cost of options on both sides of the market.

As sellers of options, that’s where we find our edge. We’re not trying to predict direction; we’re trying to capitalize on temporary overpricing. Once the report is released, volatility often collapses, a phenomenon known as IV crush, and that’s when time decay and probability work in our favor.

⚙️ How I Approach Earnings Trades

My earnings approach is grounded in probability, structure, and risk management, not prediction.

Here’s how I typically frame each trade:

• 📈 Probability of success: 80% or higher

• 🎯 Strike placement: Outside of the expected move

• 🧩 Strategy choice: Short strangle (undefined risk) or iron condor (defined risk)

I prefer to stay outside the expected move because roughly 80% of stocks trade within their implied move immediately following earnings. This allows us to consistently position for high-probability outcomes while maintaining appropriate risk controls, mostly seen through proper position-size.

🔍 The Week Ahead: October 27-31

Below, you’ll find key data for companies reporting next week, including:

• Implied Volatility (IV)

• IV Rank & IV Percentile

• 5-day IV Change & 1-month IV Change

• Expected Move (based on current options pricing)

I use this data to guide my selection process each week. It’s not about guessing direction, it’s about identifying where probabilities align with inflated premiums.

If you have questions about how to interpret this information or structure earnings trades, please reach out via email or leave a comment. I always welcome questions, they often lead to great educational discussions for everyone in our community.

💡 Final Thoughts

Earnings trades are a small but valuable part of my overall approach. They teach precision, patience, and the discipline to size positions appropriately. These are typically one-day trades, so position sizing and risk management are paramount.

For weekly updates and detailed earnings alerts check out The Implied Perspective.

Probabilities over predictions,

Andy Crowder

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