The Earnings Playbook: October 13-17, 2025

📊 Earnings Season Is Here Again

Earnings season officially begins next week, and with it comes one of the most dynamic times of the year for options traders. Volatility rises, probabilities tighten, and well-prepared traders have the opportunity to capture premium from short-lived pricing inefficiencies.

To start off the season, I’ll be focusing on JPMorgan (JPM), with Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) also on the radar. These early announcements often set the tone for the entire earnings cycle, giving us a read on both the markets and implied volatility trends.

Throughout earnings season, I’ll be sharing regular trade insights and educational breakdowns here at The Option Premium.

And don’t forget, every Sunday during earnings season, I’ll include, in The Option Premium, my Earnings Options Plays , featuring updated data, high-probability setups, and where I’m finding the most efficient trades.

🎓 Understanding the Setup

Before diving into specific trades, it’s important to understand what drives the opportunity each quarter.

Leading up to an earnings announcement, speculators and hedgers rush to buy options to position for potential surprises. This surge in demand inflates implied volatility (IV), increasing the cost of options on both sides of the market.

As sellers of options, that’s where we find our edge. We’re not trying to predict direction; we’re trying to capitalize on temporary overpricing. Once the report is released, volatility often collapses, a phenomenon known as IV crush, and that’s when time decay and probability work in our favor.

⚙️ How I Approach Earnings Trades

My earnings approach is grounded in probability, structure, and risk management, not prediction.

Here’s how I typically frame each trade:

• 📈 Probability of success: 80% or higher

• 🎯 Strike placement: Outside of the expected move

• 🧩 Strategy choice: Short strangle (undefined risk) or iron condor (defined risk)

I prefer to stay outside the expected move because roughly 80% of stocks trade within their implied move immediately following earnings. This allows us to consistently position for high-probability outcomes while maintaining appropriate risk controls, mostly seen through proper position-size.

🔍 The Week Ahead: October 13-17

Below, you’ll find key data for companies reporting next week, including:

• Implied Volatility (IV)

• IV Rank & IV Percentile

• 5-day IV Change & 1-month IV Change

• Expected Move (based on current options pricing)

I use this data to guide my selection process each week. It’s not about guessing direction, it’s about identifying where probabilities align with inflated premiums.

If you have questions about how to interpret this information or structure earnings trades, please reach out via email or leave a comment. I always welcome questions, they often lead to great educational discussions for everyone in our community.

💡 Final Thoughts

Earnings trades are a small but valuable part of my overall approach. They teach precision, patience, and the discipline to size positions appropriately. These are typically one-day trades, so position sizing and risk management are paramount.

Probabilities over predictions,

Andy Crowder

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