The Earnings Playbook: November 3-7, 2025

📊 The Weekly Earnings Season Playbook

Here’s the Map for the Week of Nov 3-7.

Mon. (11/3) after close: PLTR.

Tues. (11/4) before open: BP, PFE, SHOP, UBER; after close: AMD, CAVA, MARA, SMCI, TOST.

Wed. (11/5) before open: CCJ, MCD, NVO; after close: EOSE, HOOD, QCOM.

Thurs. (11/6) before open: COP; after close: ABNB, AFRM, DKNG. Attention and liquidity should peak.

Tues. PM (semis + growth) and Thurs. PM (consumer/fintech).

Quick standouts by data: AMD (IVR 60%, IV percentile 93%, ~4.0M OI) is the headliner for clean fills + meaningful premium; PLTR (IV 66.9%, ~3.47M OI) kicks things off Monday. QCOM (Wed PM) offers balanced IV (42%) with solid liquidity, while CCJ (Wed AM, IVR 71%, pctl 96%) and NVO (IVR 73%, IV percentile 90%) carry elevated ranks without extreme spreads.

If you’re simply hunting movement, DKNG (IVR 60%, IV percentile 97%), ABNB, and AFRM into Thurs. PM fit the bill. High-octane bucket, EOSE (IV 124%), MARA (IV 99%), CAVA (IVR 82%, IV percentile 98%), can gap and run with wider markets; SMCI shows high IV but a low IVR (19%), so the relative vol edge is thinner. Size and distance to strikes matter most this week.

🎓 Understanding the Setup

Before diving into specific trades, it’s important to understand what drives the opportunity each quarter.

Leading up to an earnings announcement, speculators and hedgers rush to buy options to position for potential surprises. This surge in demand inflates implied volatility (IV), increasing the cost of options on both sides of the market.

As sellers of options, that’s where we find our edge. We’re not trying to predict direction; we’re trying to capitalize on temporary overpricing. Once the report is released, volatility often collapses, a phenomenon known as IV crush, and that’s when time decay and probability work in our favor.

⚙️ How I Approach Earnings Trades

My earnings approach is grounded in probability, structure, and risk management, not prediction.

Here’s how I typically frame each trade:

• 📈 Probability of success: 80% or higher

• 🎯 Strike placement: Outside of the expected move

• 🧩 Strategy choice: Short strangle (undefined risk) or iron condor (defined risk)

I prefer to stay outside the expected move because roughly 80% of stocks trade within their implied move immediately following earnings. This allows us to consistently position for high-probability outcomes while maintaining appropriate risk controls, mostly seen through proper position-size.

🔍 The Week Ahead: November 3-7

I use this data to guide my selection process each week. It’s not about guessing direction, it’s about identifying where probabilities align with inflated premiums.

If you have questions about how to interpret this information or structure earnings trades, please reach out via email or leave a comment. I always welcome questions, they often lead to great educational discussions for everyone in our community.

💡 Final Thoughts

Earnings trades are a small but valuable part of my overall approach. They teach precision, patience, and the discipline to size positions appropriately. These are typically one-day trades, so position sizing and risk management are paramount.

For weekly updates and detailed earnings alerts check out The Implied Perspective.

Probabilities over predictions,

Andy Crowder

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