The Earnings Playbook: November 24-28, 2025

📊 The Weekly Earnings Season Playbook

Here’s a clear, scan-friendly earnings playbook for Nov 24-28 (ET). Use it to interpret the data, not as advice.

Quick data highlights (IV Rank / Expected Move/ % Expected Move)

Earnings Watch: What the Options Market Is Telling Us

Three names on the radar this week: Alibaba (BABA), Dell (DELL), and Kohl’s (KSS).
All report on 11/25 and all have enough implied volatility to be interesting.

Quick refresher:

• IV Rank - tells us if option prices are high or low relative to the past year.

• Expected Move - what the options market thinks is a “normal” move through earnings (up or down).

We don’t use this to predict the direction, only to size risk and choose smart structures.

BABA - Alibaba

• Reports: Before the open (11/25)

• Price: 152.93

• IV Rank: 37%

• Expected Move: ± 9.36 (about 6%)

BABA’s options are moderately expensive. A 6% move is meaningful, but not extreme. This is a good example of a “normal” earnings trade: enough premium to consider small credit spreads or, more conservatively, watching to see if the actual move is smaller than the expected move and then selling puts after the dust settles.

DELL - Dell Technologies

• Reports: After the close (11/25)

• Price: 122.51

• IV Rank: 57%

• Expected Move: ± 9.73 (about 8%)

DELL is the standout this week. Option prices are elevated and the market is braced for a big reaction, likely driven by the AI/server story.

For traders, that usually argues for defined-risk ideas only (spreads, not naked options) and small size. If the move ends up smaller than 8%, the IV crush can reward well-placed spread sellers.

KSS - Kohl’s

• Reports: Before the open (11/25)

• Price: 15.71

• IV Rank: 45%

• Expected Move: ± 1.90 (about 12%)

KSS has the largest percentage expected move of the group. The options market is telling you, very plainly, “this one can swing hard.” That kind of setup belongs in the speculative bucket: tiny positions, fully defined risk, or simply a “watch and learn” name if you’re newer to earnings trading.

How to Use This as a Trader

• Think in percentages, not dollar moves. A $2 move on a $15 stock is very different from a $2 move on a $150 stock.

• Let IV Rank guide structure. Mid-to-high IV Rank favors risk-defined premium selling (spreads, iron condors) over naked options.

• Focus on repetition, not hero calls. The edge comes from running the same disciplined strategy across many earnings cycles, not trying to nail one big trade.

Use this week’s names as a small lab: watch how far each stock actually moves versus its expected move. That simple habit alone will make you a better options trader over time.

For education, not recommendations.

Understanding the Setup

Before diving into specific trades, it’s important to understand what drives the opportunity each quarter.

Leading up to an earnings announcement, speculators and hedgers rush to buy options to position for potential surprises. This surge in demand inflates implied volatility (IV), increasing the cost of options on both sides of the market.

As sellers of options, that’s where we find our edge. We’re not trying to predict direction; we’re trying to capitalize on temporary overpricing. Once the report is released, volatility often collapses, a phenomenon known as IV crush, and that’s when time decay and probability work in our favor.

How I Approach Earnings Trades

My earnings approach is grounded in probability, structure, and risk management, not prediction.

Here’s how I typically frame each trade:

• 📈 Probability of success: 80% or higher

• 🎯 Strike placement: Outside of the expected move

• 🧩 Strategy choice: Short strangle (undefined risk) or iron condor (defined risk)

I prefer to stay outside the expected move because roughly 80% of stocks trade within their implied move immediately following earnings. This allows us to consistently position for high-probability outcomes while maintaining appropriate risk controls, mostly seen through proper position-size.

Final Thoughts

Earnings trades are a small but valuable part of my overall approach. They teach precision, patience, and the discipline to size positions appropriately. These are typically one-day trades, so position sizing and risk management are paramount.

For weekly updates and detailed earnings alerts check out The Implied Perspective.

Probabilities over predictions,

Andy Crowder

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