🧠 Mental Capital: Conviction Over Confirmation: Why the Best Options Trades Still Feel Uncomfortable

Conviction Over Confirmation: Why the Best Options Trades Still Feel Uncomfortable

Let me tell you the truth few traders ever say aloud:

Some of the most profitable trades I’ve ever placed felt downright terrible when I made them.

Not because I was reckless. Not because I broke my plan. But because they triggered right when the market looked like it was coming apart at the seams.

The premiums were juicy. Volatility was screaming. The setup was clean.
And I still hesitated.

That moment, when your strategy says “yes” but your brain screams “wait”, is where real conviction is tested.

The Comfort Myth

There’s a dangerous belief floating around options trading circles:

In reality? The market punishes that mindset.

Feeling “right” usually means you’re aligned with the crowd. But when has following the crowd ever delivered consistent edge in premium selling?

Let’s be clear:

• Selling options after everyone else already has = poor risk/reward.

• Entering after a bounce = shrinking premium and higher directional risk.

• Waiting until confirmation = you’re likely too late.

Confirmation feels good. But it’s often where edge goes to die.

The Psychological Trap: Why We Crave Confirmation

This goes deeper than market logic. It’s human nature.

The human brain is wired to seek certainty. We evolved to avoid danger, our ancestors didn’t survive by stepping into risk when things looked uncertain.

And yet, in modern options trading, that wiring betrays us.

When volatility spikes and setups appear, everything in you says, “Now? Really? Are you sure?”

Your heart rate ticks up. You open Twitter or some other form of social confirmation. You check for others “agreeing” with your idea. You hesitate, waiting for a sign, a green candle, a retweet, a signal from the universe that it’s okay to act.

But by the time those signs arrive, the edge is gone.

A Real-World Snapshot

Let’s say it’s Thursday. SPY just dropped 2.7% on hot inflation data. VIX spikes 15%. The implied move next week balloons. IV rank hits 81.

You know the play.

• High IV

• Oversold RSI

• Elevated premium

Your system tells you: Sell a defined-risk bull put spread, 30 delta, 15 DTE.

But it feels awful. Why? Because the market just dropped. Everyone’s bearish. The headlines are screaming.

Your brain whispers: “What if this time is different?”

That hesitation is completely normal. But if you’ve done your homework, backtested this environment, executed this setup before, and sized the trade appropriately, then discomfort isn’t danger. It’s just how a real edge feels.

Conviction Is a Process, Not a Feeling

Here’s what I’ve learned after decades in the markets:

Most people confuse confidence with comfort.
They want their setups to feel good, like someone else already paved the road.

But real conviction is quiet. It doesn’t shout. It whispers:

• “I’ve seen this setup before.”

• “The metrics line up.”

• “It feels uncomfortable, but it fits my playbook.”

You won’t find it in price action alone. You’ll find it in your system, and your willingness to act on it.

How to Build Conviction (Without Needing to Feel Right)

Let’s break this into a real framework you can implement.

✅ 1. Define Your Conviction Triggers

These are objective, not emotional.

For example, in my high-probability approach, conviction might look like:

• IV Rank > 60

• RSI below 30 or above 70

• Expected move exceeds historical range

• Delta-balanced, defined-risk spread

• Position sized < 3% of total capital

If these hit? It’s a trade, even if your gut says no.

✅ 2. Normalize Discomfort

This is key.

Write down how uncomfortable you feel on every trade. Then write down what your system said.

Over time, you’ll realize something powerful:

I’ve had dozens of trades where I wanted to puke on entry, and then closed them for 40%+ gains a week later. Not because I was brave, but because I trusted the process more than my fear.

✅ 3. Journal Your Uncertainty

The real battle isn’t with the market. It’s with your memory.

We tend to forget how we felt in winning trades. We remember the easy ones, but it’s the tough trades that made us better.

So write it down. Log:

• Your setup

• Your hesitation

• Your execution

• Your outcome

Pattern recognition isn’t just for charts, it’s for you, too.

Case Study: The Trade That Didn’t Feel Right

Two months ago, I sold a $QQQ iron condor going into earnings season. IV rank was high. Expected move was stretched. I structured a delta-neutral condor with short strikes outside the 1 SD move.

Everything lined up.

But tech had been running. The fear of a breakout loomed. It didn’t feel safe.

I entered anyway, sized modestly. Took heat for two days. Then volatility collapsed. Theta kicked in. I closed for a 37% return on risk in six days.

Had I waited for it to feel good? I would’ve missed it entirely.

This happens more often than traders admit.

Final Word: Uncertainty Is the Toll You Pay for Edge

The market doesn’t pay you to feel good. It pays you to follow process in moments when others flinch.

You don’t need the market to say "yes." You need your system to say “go.”

That moment, when you press “send” with a tight stomach and a clear checklist, is when your mental capital becomes real capital.

And that’s what separates real traders from spectators.

Probabilities over predictions,

Andy Crowder

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