The page you requested doesn't exist

We could not locate the page: /p/mental-capital-the-overconfidence-bias-in-options-trading

Try one of the featured posts or search the archive below.

Poor Man’s Covered Calls: The Definitive Guide to Smarter Options Income

Poor Man’s Covered Calls (PMCCs) use LEAPS to replace expensive stock positions, reducing capital needs by 65 to 85%. Learn how this strategy generates consistent income with flexibility and lower risk.

Best Stocks for Credit Spreads: A 7-Step Selection Framework

How to find the best stocks for credit spreads using liquidity, IV rank, IV percentile, and expected move. A step-by-step framework for consistent profits.

Earnings Season Options Trade: A Step-by-Step Guide

Learn Andy Crowder's 5-step earnings options framework: liquidity, IV rank, expected move, historical behavior, and iron condor setup with real Visa trade numbers.

How to Profit with The Wheel Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide to Consistent Income Using a Conservative Options Strategy

Learn how The Wheel Strategy can boost your portfolio with cash-secured puts and covered calls for steady income and lowered risk.

Options Traders' Must-Have: Mastering the Expected Move

Learn how to calculate the expected move using implied volatility, place strikes outside the range, and build high-probability credit spreads with real SPY examples.

Law of Large Numbers in Options Trading: Your Statistical Edge

How the Law of Large Numbers powers probability-based options trading with 70-85% win rates. The math, the strategy, and a real SPY bear call spread example.

Most Recent Posts, Alerts, Updates

Premium

🚨 The Income Foundation Trade Alert: September 10, 2026

Adding New Positions

Three Options Strategies Backed by Decades of Research (And What the Studies Actually Found)

Covered calls, cash-secured puts, and collars: what decades of academic research actually found, with exact numbers, and the fine print the hype machine skips.

The Probability Stack: How Professional Options Sellers Think About Risk

Expected move, delta, probability OTM, and probability of touch are one system, not four numbers. The complete pre-trade risk framework for premium sellers.

Premium

📩 The Implied Perspective Weekly Update - September 6, 2026

The September condor's full arc: five weeks underwater, out at 13.8%. Plus three new October trades.

Premium

📩 The Income Foundation Weekly Update - September 6, 2026

Two roll triggers crossed in the same week, the shaded card the board carried for three issues finally answered with the steepest earnings drop of the season, and a fund whose volatility read zero two weeks ago just took the number one seat.

📩 The Option Premium Weekly Issue - September 6, 2026

The revision erased July's print, hike odds hit 63%, and the sell zone is down to three names.

Premium

📩 Wealth Without Shares Weekly Update - September 6, 2026

Merck at a record, Small Dogs at all-time highs, and one bill for 6.33 points that teaches more than both.

The Overconfidence Bias in Options Trading

Success creates the conditions that destroy success. The documented psychology of overconfidence in options trading, and the systems that defend against it.

The Price of the Seatbelt: What Defined Risk Actually Costs, and When to Pay It

Vertical spreads cap your risk, but the cap has a price: half the income for 96 percent of the tail. The honest ledger, and when the trade is worth it.

What Is a Long Put, and Is It the Same as Betting Against a Stock?

A long put can be a bearish directional bet or a portfolio insurance tool. Here is the difference, when each use is appropriate, and when selling premium is the better choice.

Andrew Crowder

Premium